Natural Gas Price Forecast – May 6, 2020

Natural gas could not overcome Tuesday’s $2.162 swing high and make the push for key resistance and the gateway for a much more bullish outlook at $2.21. Instead, prices fell and took out the 38 percent retracement of the move up from $1.649. This is bearish for the near-term but doe not mean that the move up is over. Rather, as suspected for the past few weeks, prices are still settling into a wide and volatile trading range.

Tomorrow, look for natural gas to challenge at least $1.91 and likely $1.86. The $1.86 objective is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1.649 and is expected to hold. Closing below this would reflect a bearish shift in sentiment and severely dampen odds for a continued rise during the next few days.

Natural Gas – $0.035 Kase Bar

The move down from $2.162 was aggressive but lacks a meaningful wave formation. Therefore, once $1.86 is met odds for a test of resistance will increase. For now, $2.02 will likely hold and $2.07 is key. Settling above $2.07 will shift near-term odds in favor of another attempt at $2.17 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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