July natural gas, which is now the prompt month futures contract, held $1.96 resistance and is poised to challenge at least $1.83 and likely $1.78 during the next few days. The $1.78 target is the lowest the first wave down from $2.027 projects and the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $2.027. Closing below $1.78 will call for prices to fall toward $1.70 where the continuation chart’s rollover gap up from June’s $1.722 settle will be filled.
The $1.70 objective is also the smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave down from $2.364. Closing below $1.70 may be a challenge without help from bearish external factors. Also, due to the importance of $1.70 and its connection to a new 2020 continuation chart low, it is doubtful that prices fall below $1.70 without another significant test of resistance first.
There is an immediate support target at $1.86 that may hold early tomorrow. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2.027 and makes the connection to $1.78 and $1.70. Resistance at $1.95 is expected to hold and $2.02 is key. Settling above $2.02 would shift near-term odds in favor of $2.07 and possibly higher before another downturn.
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