Natural Gas Price Forecast – July 28, 2021

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for natural gas is bearish. Today’s long-legged doji reflects a bit of uncertainty, but the waves down from $4.165 and $4.025 call for a test of at least $3.91 and likely lower during the next few days. The key near-term objective is $3.82 because this is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $4.165. Settling below $3.82, which is also in line with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $3.495, will clear the way for $3.75 and eventually $3.70.

Nevertheless, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3.837 has held so far. Should natural gas rally above $4.04 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $4.08. Settling above $4.08 will shift odds back in favor of rising toward the next major threshold around $4.23.

Natural Gas - $0.05 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.05 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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