Natural Gas Price Forecast – April 1, 2020

May natural gas fell to a new contract low of $1.580 today and settled below the $1.593 larger than (1.618) target of the first wave down from $2.044. The move down is poised to extend. Based on the waves down from $1.782 and $1.731, the prompt month should reach at least $1.56 and likely $1.50. The $1.50 objective is most important. Once met, there is a good chance for another test of resistance before prices fall to the next objectives at $1.46 and lower.

Natural Gas - $0.025 Kase Bar
Natural Gas – $0.025 Kase Bar

Support at $1.56 may initially hold because this is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $1.782. Nonetheless, should prices rise form this level before reaching $1.50 look for resistance at $1.64 to hold. Rising above this would call for $1.67 and possibly $1.71. There is nothing on the charts that calls for a move above $1.67, so overcoming this level is doubtful during the next few days. Even so, key resistance and the barrier for a bullish near-term outlook is $1.71. Settling above $1.71 would clear the way for $1.76 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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