Natural Gas Forecast: September Trying to Break Out of Range

September natural gas is trying to break higher out of the month long trading range. Two important boundaries have been established within the range. First between $2.71 and $2.84. Second between $2.66 and $2.96. Prices rose above $2.84 in early trading Wednesday, but closed just below at $2.839. Nonetheless, prices will likely push for at least $2.91 and possibly $2.96 tomorrow. A close over $2.96 would call for the bullish trend to extend to targets above $3.00. Given the strength of the moves up today and last Thursday, it looks as though prices will rise to new recovery highs soon.

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That said, a break higher out of the range in the near-term will likely hinge on tomorrow’s EIA Natural Gas Storage Report. A larger than expected build (some are looking for a draw in tomorrow’s report) could open the way for another test of $2.71. A close below this would then call for key support at $2.66.

With all technical factors considered, odds favor the move up tomorrow. September will need to close over $2.91 to keep the momentum it gained today and then close over $2.96 soon to open the way for targets above $3.00.

This is a brief natural gas forecast for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and intraweek updates provide a much more detailed and thorough analysis. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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