Gold Price Forecast – March 27, 2024

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose today and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2200.6 at $2190. The uptrend is intact but this is a tight call for the near term because the corrective move down from $2225.3 still shows potential to extend upon a close below key support at $2159. Even so, today’s rise has positioned gold to challenge key near-term resistance at $2203. This is in line with the 62 percent retracement from $2225.3 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2158.4. Settling above $2203 will strongly imply that the correction is complete and open the way for $2218 and then a test of this wave’s $2233 equal to (1.00) target.

Nevertheless, trading has been erratic for the past week and the close above $2190 was nominal. Should gold fall again look for initial support at $2179 and then $2168. Closing below $2168 would warn that the move up is failing again and call for a test of key support and the smaller than target of the wave down from $2225.3 at $2159. Settling below this will call for the corrective move down to extend to $2136 and possibly lower.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

May natural gas fell to a new contract low and finally settled below an important target at $1.76. The move down is now poised to test the $1.69 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $1.900 and then the $1.66 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.152. There is a lot of support around $1.66, so this is a potential stalling point for the May contract. Nevertheless, closing below $1.66 will call for $1.63, $1.60, and eventually a test of the $1.51 equal to target of the wave down from $2.152.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching at least $1.69 and likely $1.66. Today’s decline also negated a daily weak bullish KasePO divergence. Nevertheless, should natural gas rally tomorrow look for initial resistance at $1.75 and key near-term resistance at $1.79. Settling above $1.79 would shift near-term odds in favor of a more significant test of resistance where $1.88 is most important.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil’s pullback from $83.12 is likely a correction. Last week’s shooting star, confirmed daily KaseCD and MACD divergences, and a daily PeakOut (overbought) signal indicate a deeper test of support should take place. However, Monday’s rally and move above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $83.12 dampened the odds for an extended correction.

Nevertheless, Tuesday’s move down fulfilled the $81.5 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $82.48. Furthermore, with gasoline and diesel prices falling WTI will probably be hard-pressed to settle above key resistance at $82.6 during the next few days. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bearish and closing below $81.1, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $80.3, will call for a test of the $80.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $83.12. Settling below this will open the way for a test of at least this wave’s $79.7 equal to (1.00) target before the uptrend extends to a new high.

With that said, this is a tight call for the next few days. The uptrend is intact and, as stated, the pullback from $83.12 is likely a correction. Should WTI crude oil rise again and overcome $82.1 look for a test of the $82.6 smaller than target of the compound wave up from $80.3. Settling above this would shift the near-term odds back in favor of prices rising to $83.3 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied and stalled just above the $2221 target discussed in Wednesday’s analysis at $2225.3 before pulling back. A daily long-legged doji reflects near-term uncertainty and warns that a deeper test of support will likely take place before the uptrend extends to the next major target at $2246. This is a tight call, but near-term odds favor a test of the $2175 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2225.3. Closing below this will call for the corrective move down to extend to $2165, $2149, and possibly $2138 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, prices rose at the end of the day and may challenge the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2225.3 at $2203 early tomorrow. This is also the prior swing high. Closing above $2203 would strongly suggest that the move down from $2225.3 is complete. Settling above the $2215 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2149.2 will confirm this is the case and put the odds in favor of gold rising to $2246.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas is stuck in a trading range between $1.64 and $1.77. Prices failed to test the top of the range and the $1.78 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1.643 after settling above this wave’s $1.73 smaller than (0.618) target Tuesday. Instead, April natural gas fell to test the $1.69 smaller than target of the wave down from $1.774. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.646. The $1.69 target held on a closing basis, but meeting this objective has put near-term odds in favor of testing the $1.64 equal to target of the wave down from $1.774. Taking out $1.67 will increase the odds for such a move. Closing below $1.64 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days and open the way for a new April natural gas contract low of at least $1.59.

Nevertheless, this is still a very tight call for the near-term because $1.69 held on a closing basis. Should prices rise above $1.74 early tomorrow look for another attempt to test and overcome $1.78. Settling above $1.78 will confirm a break higher out of the range and the double bottom that formed around $1.643. Such a move will shift odds in favor of challenging $1.83 and higher in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s move up has been due for a correction. Today’s close below Monday’s midpoint and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $76.43 and the confirmation of a daily bearish MACD divergence indicates such a move is underway. Tomorrow, look for a test of $80.6. This is Monday’s open and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $76.43. Settling below $80.6 will clear the way for a deeper test of support with important targets at $80.1 and $79.0.

With that said, the move down is likely a correction. Should WTI rally again and close back above $82.2 there is a good chance that the corrective move down is complete. Closing above $83.1, the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $84.87, will confirm this is the case and put near-term odds back in favor of WTI crude oil reaching $83.7 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold continued to rise as expected and overcame the $2171.5 April contract high. The $2171.5 swing high, which is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the first wave up from $1861.7, held on a closing basis though. Therefore, there is potential for a double top between the $2171.5 and $2172.2 swing highs. Daily momentum oscillators are overbought and the move up is due for a test of support.

However, there are no confirmed patterns or signals that call for a reversal. Therefore, the outlook remains bullish and overcoming $2180 will call for a test of the next major objective and probable stalling point at $2190. The $2190 objective is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1861.7 and the equal to target of the wave up from $1975.1. A solid test of support is anticipated before sustaining a close above $2190.

Given the potential for a double top and overbought daily momentum oscillators, the odds for a test of support in the coming days have risen. Even so, any move down will likely be a correction and should hold $2135. Settling below $2135 would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

April natural gas is struggling to settle above a confluent and important target at $1.96. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1.600 and the larger than (1.618) target of the first subwave up from $1.683. This target has held on a closing basis for the past few days. The pullback from $2.009 warns that a test of $1.90 will probably take place before the move up extends. Even so, the move down will likely prove to be a simple correction and should hold $1.900. The near-term outlook for natural gas remains bullish and closing above $1.960 will call for another test of $2.00 and likely a push to challenge $2.03 and then the $2.07 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $1.600.

With that said, should the corrective pullback from $2.009 take out $1.90 look for a test of key near-term support at $1.85. This is the larger than target of the wave down from $2.009 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1.600. A normal correction should hold $1.85. Closing below this would shift the near-term odds in favor of a more substantial test of support where $1.76, the XC (2.764) projection and 62 percent retracement, is most important. Settling below $1.76 would reflect a bearish shift in sentiment and imply that the move up is complete.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continued to fall as called for today and settled below the confirmation point of Monday’s bearish dark cloud cover. The new primary wave down from $80.85 is poised to test its $77.3 smaller than (0.618) target. This objective is in line with the 20-day moving average and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $71.49. Settling below $77.3 might initially prove to be a challenge given its confluence but would open the way for a test of the $76.2 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $80.85. This has become the most important level of support for the near-term outlook because $76.2 is also the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $71.49 and the 38 percent retracement from $68.57.

Nevertheless, the move down is likely a correction because all major prior swing lows have held and WTI is still trading above all major daily moving averages. The daily Kase Trend indicator is also bullish. Should WTI rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $79.0. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $77.52 and connects to key near-term resistance at $79.7 as the equal to target. The $79.7 level is also near the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $80.85. Therefore, closing above $79.7 would imply that the corrective move down is complete and put near-term odds in favor of retesting major resistance around $80.5.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI rose as called for and settled above the $77.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $69.56. This wave now favors a test of its $81.3 equal to (1.00) target. Tomorrow, look for a test of the $79.2 smaller than target of the new wave up from $71.41. Closing above this will call for another attempt to overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $86.68 at $79.7 and then a test of the $80.7 intermediate target (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $68.28.

Crude Oil Daily Chart
WTI Crude Oil – Daily Chart

With that said, the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $79.29 at $78.42 held on a closing basis. The late pullback from $78.47 warns that a test of $77.0 might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Taking out $77.0 will call for a test of key near-term support and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $71.41 at $75.8. Settling below $75.8 would warn that the move up is failing.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.