Natural Gas Price Forecast – April 14, 2021

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas briefly rose above the $2.663 intra-day swing high but stalled short of the critical $2.69 objective. The primary wave up from $2.453 still favors a test of its $2.69 equal to (1.00) target. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.06 and is in line with the lower trend line of the flag pattern that natural gas broke lower out of on April 5.

With that said, near-term odds lean bullish, but today’s shooting star warns that the move up might be short-lived and that natural gas could remain range-bound. Nonetheless, settling above $2.69, which looks like it will be a challenge, would open the way for $2.74 and possibly $2.78.

Additionally, the decline from $2.666 has formed a few small waves that suggest $2.59 will probably be challenged first. This is Tuesday’s midpoint and the completion point of the shooting star. Taking out $2.59 will call for a test of key near-term support at $2.53. Settling below $2.53 would confirm the shooting star and fulfill the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.688. This wave then connects to $2.45, a close below which would call for a test of the crucial $2.40 level.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil is working its way toward the top of the trading range that prices have been oscillating in during the past few weeks. The outlook remains tight, and the range still looks corrective of the decline from $67.79. Nevertheless, near-term odds favor a test of $61.4. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $57.63. Settling above $61.4 will call for $62.5, which then connects to a bullish decision point at $63.8. Settling above $63.8 would imply that the move down from $67.79 is complete and clear the way for $65.6 and higher.

With that said, caution is warranted because the move up has not been able to overcome the $60.90 intra-day swing high during the last few days. Moreover, during the past few weeks each time WTI looks poised to break higher or lower out of the range the move has stalled and reversed course. Therefore, should WTI crude oil take out $59.1 tomorrow look for a test of $58.0, which then connects to a highly confluent support level at $57.0. Settling below $57.0 would call for a test of a bearish decision point at $55.7.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.65 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold settled above $1756 and confirmed the $1676 double bottom. The move up is now poised to reach at least $1770 and likely $1788 during the next few days. The $1788 target is most confluent and could prove to be a stalling point. However, settling above $1788 will clear the way for $1807 and possibly a push toward the double bottom’s $1837 target.

There are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. However, the rise from $1677.3 lacks a clear wave structure, so a test of support might take place soon. For now, $1742 is expected to hold and $1728 is key for the near term. Settling below $1728 will call for a test of $1709. Closing below $1709 would imply that the move up is complete and shift longer-term odds back in favor of a continued decline.

Gold - $10 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas retains a firm bearish outlook even after today’s somewhat surprising bounce. The move up stalled near the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.688 and could not overcome the $2.568 intra-day swing high. This suggests the move up is another correction after breaking lower out of the bearish flag pattern Monday. The move down is poised to challenge $2.46 again, a close below which will call for the next major objective and a potential stalling point at $2.40. Nevertheless, as stated in yesterday’s daily update, an eventual close below $2.40 is expected, which will clear the way for $2.33 and lower.

With that said, today’s move up dampens near-term odds for a continued decline during the next few days. Moreover, should natural gas overcome today’s $2.546 high early tomorrow look for a test of $2.59. This has become a highly confluent resistance level and is in line with the breakout point of the flag. It is common to see a pullback to challenge the breakout point of this type of pattern. Closing above $2.59 is doubtful, but such a move would reflect a bullish shift in near-term sentiment and call for $2.64 and possibly a move back toward crucial upper resistance at $2.69 again.

Natural Gas - $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil continues to trade in an indecisive trading range. Today’s initial move up fulfilled the $60.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $57.25. This was bullish, but the move stalled and the pullback from $60.9 suggests another test of support will probably take place tomorrow. This is a tight call, but near-term odds lean in favor of $58.4, a move below which will call for $57.2. Settling below $57.2 will cause a break lower out of the trading range and call for a test of a bearish decision point at $55.7 that connects to $51.7 and lower.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.65 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, fulfilling the $60.7 smaller than target of the primary wave up from $57.25 implies that while the $57.63 swing low holds this wave still has good potential to extend to its $62.5 equal to (1.00) target. The connection to $62.5 is made through $61.2, the smaller than target of the wave up from $57.63. Closing above $62.5 would shift near-term odds in favor of testing the $63.8 bullish decision point. Closing above this would strongly suggest that the corrective move down is complete and clear the way for the uptrend to extend to new highs in the coming weeks.

The primary takeaway is not the direction of the call but rather the implications of either a close below $61.2 or above $62.5. Everything else that happens between those levels will likely be noise. Closing beyond either threshold would then call for a test of the longer-term bearish or bullish decision points at $55.7 or $63.8, respectively.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas retains a bearish outlook. The move up from $2.459 tested and held $2.69 resistance, which has helped to shape a bearish flag. This is a continuation pattern that is expected to break lower. The bottom trend line around $2.57 held today, but a close below this will confirm a break lower out of the flag and clear the way for $2.51. This then connects to $2.45 and lower.

Nevertheless, because $2.57 held today, there is a modest chance for another oscillation within the flag to test the upper trend line again. This is doubtful but a move above $2.65 will call for a test of $2.69 again. Settling above $2.69 would call for $2.73 and possibly $2.76, which would likely be in line with the flag’s upper trend line by the time prices rose that high.

Natural Gas - $0.025 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.025 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil briefly overcame the $62.04 swing high and invalidated the prior primary wave down from $67.79. However, the move up stalled and a bearish intra-day head and shoulders pattern has formed. The wave down from $62.27 that forms the pattern’s right shoulder is poised to challenge its $59.8 smaller than (0.618) target tomorrow. This is in line with the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. Closing below $59.8 will call for $59.0 and possibly $57.6, the lower of which is near the target of the head and shoulders. Settling below $57.6 might be a challenge ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later this week but would clear the way for a test of the $55.7 smaller than target of the newly formed primary wave down from $67.79. The $55.7 objective has become a bearish decision point because a sustained close below this will call for a decline toward the primary wave’s $51.7 target.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.50 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.50 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, trading is expected to be erratic for at least another few days. During the past eight trading sessions each time the market looks like it will fall it rises, and vice versa. Therefore, caution is warranted.

Should WTI crude oil hold $59.8 and overcome $61.6 early tomorrow, the head and shoulders pattern will likely fail (it could still transmute into a complex head and shoulders provided $61.6 holds). In this case, look for a test of $62.7 and possibly $63.9. The $63.9 level is a bullish decision point because this is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $67.79 and is near the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $57.25. Settling above $63.9 would imply the corrective move down is complete and open the way for $64.6 and likely higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for gold continues to lean bearish, but the call remains tight. Today’s initial move up to $1744.8 broke the upper trend line of a coil pattern. However, the move up stalled and the subsequent decline broke the coil’s lower trend line before stalling at $1720. This was in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $1747, the 38 percent retracement from $1673.3, and the 20-day moving average.

Gold - $5 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $5 Kase Bar Chart

There is little doubt that the move up from $1673.3 is corrective of the larger-scale decline, which still targets $1631. Closing below $1720 will confirm a break lower and call for a test of a crucial target around $1707. Settling below this would strongly imply that the corrective move up is complete and call for a decline to $1684 and lower.

That said, while the $1696.6 swing low holds, the primary wave up from $1673.3 will retain a reasonable chance to reach its $1761 equal to target. Therefore, should gold rally again ahead of the weekend and settle above $1739 a break higher will be confirmed. This will clear the way for $1752 and then $1761. In this case, $1761 is expected to hold. Closing above this will call for a more significant test of resistance before the decline continues as expected.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Not a lot changed for natural gas today. The move down is hesitant to definitively take out $2.50. However, the waves and subwaves down from $3.06 still favor a continued decline to $2.40 and possibly $2.30. Taking out $2.50 will clear the way for $2.45 and then $2.40 during the next few days.

Natural Gas - $0.025 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.025 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, $2.50 is in line with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $2.422 and held on a closing basis today. Also, today’s doji dampens near-term odds for a continued decline. Should natural gas overcome $2.56 early tomorrow look for a test of key near-term resistance at $2.61. Settling above $2.61 will call for a larger correction to challenge $2.67 before the decline continues as expected.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI remains bearish. Originally, it looked as though the move down from $67.79 was unfolding as a five-wave pattern that targets $54.9 or, more likely, $53.7. However, Waves I and III lack clear five-subwave counts. This does not negate the possibility of a five-wave move, but it does imply that the decline might be a three-wave extension that targets $52.5 instead. Nonetheless, in either case, the wave count, whether five- or three-waves, calls for the decline to continue toward targets in the low $50s.

As a five-wave move, $57.0 is crucial because this is the smaller than (0.618) target of Wave III and connects to $53.7 as the equal to (1.00) target. The $53.7 objective is also the XC (2.764) target of Wave I and the lowest that this wave projects. The trend terminus for Wave I is $54.9, but $53.7 makes more sense for the five-wave move because falling to $53.7 would makes Waves III and V equal. This also means that $53.7 would be the most probable stalling point for a five-wave pattern. Therefore, once $53.7 is met, a three-wave correction, or more, would be expected.

As a three-wave extension, the decline from $67.79 targets $56.3 as the smaller than target and then connects to $52.5 as the equal to target. Therefore, a three-wave extension is a bit more bearish for the near-term outlook than a five-wave pattern.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Tomorrow’s early action should shed more light on the wave count. Currently, it looks like the decline is more likely a three-wave extension because the subwave down from $62.04 has taken out its smaller than target and calls for a test of its $56.3 equal to target. However, should $57.0 hold and a decent retracement takes place (along the lines of $1.50 to match the retracement from $58.47 to $59.98), the decline is probably a five-wave trend. Again, either way, there is a good chance for WTI to fall and fulfill targets in the low $50s in the coming days.

Regarding near-term resistance, look for $58.4 to likely hold. Key near-term resistance is today’s $59.5 midpoint. Settling above this will dampen near-term odds for a continued decline and call for a test of $60.2 and possibly today’s $61.3 open before the decline continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.