Gold Price Forecast – October 9, 2025

Tag: Technical Analysis

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold has been in a parabolic rise for several weeks after breaking higher out of a flat ascending triangle in early September. Monthly, weekly, and daily momentum oscillators have been overbought, and any pullback has been a short-lived correction. Daily trend indicators are bullish, prices are trading well above the bullish stack of rising major daily moving averages, and the trend line up from $3353.4 has held. Therefore, the uptrend is firmly intact.

However, today’s pullback after stalling at $4081 and holding just below the $4087 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $3042.5 on October 9 might serve as an early warning that a significant test of support is finally underway. Daily bearish KaseCD and MACD divergences and an overbought daily RSI signal call for a deeper test of support. Furthermore, December gold settled below the $3978 larger than (1.618) target of intraday wave down from $4081. The lowest that this wave projects as the XC (2.764) projection is $3903. This is interesting because $3903 will be in line with the trend line up from $3353.4 tomorrow. A test of at least $3929 is expected, and falling below this will call for $3903. Because $3903 is the lowest that the wave down from $4081 projects, there is a good chance that the trend line will hold and that the uptrend will persist in the coming days. Nevertheless, settling below $3903 for a few days will open the way for a more significant test of support with targets at $3831 and $3806.

That said, an intraday double bottom that formed at $3957.9 was confirmed by a move above $3980.5 during post-settlement trading hours. Prices have risen during that time, and a test of the double bottom’s $4004 target will likely occur first. This is also the 38 percent retracement from $4081. Overcoming $4004 would call for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $4034. Rising above $4034 will imply that the pullback from $4081 is another short-lived correction. Settling above $4087 will put the odds firmly back in favor of a continued rise in the coming days.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

November natural gas stalled at $3.55, in line with the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $3.585, before plummeting to challenge the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $3.055 at $3.32 again. The $3.32 level held, but today’s close below the $3.37 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3.585 was bearish for the outlook in the coming days. This wave now favors a test of its $3.26 equal to (1.00) target. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.055. Settling below $3.26 will strongly imply that the corrective move up from $3.055 is complete, opening the way for $3.16 and lower.

Today’s bearish engulfing line already suggests that the corrective move up is complete and significantly dampens the odds for a continued rise in the coming days. Nonetheless, because $3.32 held, there is a modest chance for prices to recover. Resistance at $3.40, the 38 percent retracement from $3.550, is expected to hold. Key near-term resistance is the 62 percent retracement and the smaller than target of the wave up from $3.296 at $3.47. Closing above this will call for $3.57 and possibly a test of the $3.62 smaller than target of the primary wave up from $3.055.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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November WTI crude oil pulled back to test and hold the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $60.40 before rallying. Prices settled below the $61.8 confirmation point of Friday’s inverted hammer but overcame the smaller than (0.618) target of the new primary wave up from $60.40 and the sub-wave up from $60.72. The move up is likely a correction, but the inverted hammer, confirmed daily RSI and MACD divergences, and the wave formation up from $60.40 call for a test of at least $62.4. Overcoming $62.4 will call for a move above the 38 percent retracement from $66.42 at $62.7 to challenge a confluent $63.0 target and possibly higher in the coming days.

The move up from $60.40 has been relatively shallow compared to the decline from $66.42, and as stated, is likely a correction. Currently, taking out $61.1 would call for a test of $60.6, a close below which will strongly suggest that the correction is complete. However, WTI will likely have to take out $60.3, the most confluent threshold on the chart, and a projection of the waves down from $66.42, $63.02, and $62.12 to open the way for $60.0 and lower.

Also note that should $62.4 hold and prices begin to pull back again, a bearish flag will form. Therefore, breaking through $62.4 will be crucial in proving that the move up from $60.40 is more than a short-lived correction.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas continued to rise, and a weekly bullish engulfing line and weekly bullish KaseCD divergence indicate that a reversal might be underway. The daily Kase Trend indicator flipped to bullish today and the 10-day DMI has shifted to neutral. It is still too soon to definitively state that a bottom has been made. However, the wave formation up from $2.738 calls for a test of $3.20. This is a highly confluent wave projection that is near the upper Bollinger Band. Closing above $3.11 will call for $3.17, which then connects to $3.20. Settling above $3.20 will provide more evidence that a bottom has been made and open the way for $3.26 and higher.

That said, today’s intraday bounce up from $3.037 held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.131. Therefore, a deeper test of support might occur first. Taking out $3.02 would call for a test of key near-term support at $2.97. This level is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.738. A normal correction of the rise from $2.738 should hold $2.97. Settling below this would put the near-term odds in favor of a more significant test of support where the next major threshold is the 62 percent retracement at $2.89. Settling below $2.89 would imply that the move up from $2.738 is a completed correction of the long-term downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rallied and broke higher out of a bullish pennant today. Prices also settled above the $65.3 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $61.29, the 50 percent retracement from $69.36, and the 200-day moving average. WTI crude oil is now poised to challenge the 62 percent retracement from $69.36 and the 38 percent retracement from $74.25 at $66.2. This is an important target that could prove to be a stalling point. However, odds favor an eventual rise above $66.2 to challenge the $66.8 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $61.29. This is also the highest that the first wave up from $61.29 projects. Settling above $66.8 will confirm a bullish outlook.

There is no substantial technical evidence that suggests the move up will stall before testing at least $66.2. Even so, as stated, $66.2 is a potential stalling point. Also, it is fairly common to see a pullback to test the breakout point of a pattern after a break higher. Should price fall within the next day or so $65.1 should hold. Falling below this will call for a test of $64.7 and possibly key near-term support at $64.0. Settling below $64.0 would signal that today’s break higher out of the pennant was a false breakout. In this case, the near-term odds would shift in favor of challenging $63.1 and lower.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas continued to rise after confirming daily bullish RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences and overcoming the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.738 on Tuesday. Today’s rise has positioned natural gas to challenge this wave’s $2.92 larger than (1.618) target. The move up is likely a correction, and a simple correction will hold $2.92. Closing above this will call for a more significant test of resistance in the coming days, with targets around the psychologically important $3.00 level.

That said, prices are pulling back and have taken out the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2.738. A correction of the rise from $2.738 should hold the 38 percent retracement at $2.85. Falling below this will call for the key 62 percent retracement to be challenged. Closing below $2.81 will imply that the corrective move up from $2.738 is complete and put the near-term odds in favor of natural gas falling to challenge $2.76 and lower in the coming days.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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November Brent crude oil held the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $71.93 and the 200-day moving average on a closing basis on Monday. Today’s decline retraced nearly 50 percent of the rise from $64.54 and has put prices back below the 20- and 50-day moving averages. This suggests that the corrective move up from $64.54 is complete.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $66.1. Settling below this will call for another attempt to take out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from 57.81 and the 100-day moving average at $64.9. Closing below $64.9 will clear the way for another test of the $64.6 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $76.39. This is a bearish decision point because settling below $64.6 for a few days would open the way for an eventual test of this wave’s $60.0 equal to (1.00) target and break the bottom trend line of a large flat descending triangle around $64.5.

That said, the move up from $64.54 stalled short of the upper trend line of the flat descending triangle pattern. Should prices rally again and close above $68.6, look for a break higher out of the pattern to challenge the $69.1 smaller than target of the wave up from $64.5. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $71.93. The wave up from $64.5 connects to $72.0 as the equal to target.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas retains a firm bearish outlook and is poised to reach targets at $2.73, $2.68, and $2.64 in the coming days. These are confluent projections of the waves down from $4.198, $3.657, and most recently, $3.148. The wave down from $3.148 projects to $2.73 as the equal to (1.00) target and connects to $2.64 as the intermediate (1.382) target. The $2.64 objective is a probable stalling point because this is also the equal to target of the largest wave down from $4.198. However, any move up will likely be a correction because the primary wave down from $5.21 calls for an eventual test of its $2.38 equal to target. This is also the equal to target of the wave down from $3.657 that projects to $2.68 as the smaller than (0.618) target.

That said, today’s morning star setup and the wave up from $2.764 warn that a correction might occur first. The wave up from $2.764 fulfilled its $2.84 smaller than target and projects to $2.88 as the equal to target. Therefore, there is a good chance for a test of at least $2.88 first. However, should prices take out the $2.791 swing low, this wave will be invalidated, opening the way for $2.73 and lower.

Nevertheless, overcoming $2.88 would call for the $2.91 completion point of the morning star to be challenged. A simple correction will likely hold $2.91 because this is also the intermediate target of the wave up from $2.764 and the 38 percent retracement from $3.148. Key resistance for the near-term outlook is $2.99. This is the confirmation point of the morning star reversal pattern and the 62 percent retracement from $3.148. Settling above $2.99 is currently doubtful but would reflect a bullish shift in near-term sentiment.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil held below the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $70.51 and settled back below the 100-day moving average today. The move down is poised to challenge $62.8 again. This is an area where a double bottom may have formed. The $62.8 objective is also in line with the $62.83 and $62.81 swing highs of a range that prices traded in between early April and late May. However, based on the recent intraday waves down from $64.48 and $64.44, WTI crude oil favors a test of $62.4. This is a longer-term bearish decision point because $62.4 is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.01 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $75.98. This wave connects to $57.4 as the equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, a sustained close below $62.4 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, given the confluence and importance of both the $62.8 and $62.4 targets, sustaining a close below $62.4 will likely be a challenge without a test of resistance first. The daily Stochastic is oversold, and the move down from $70.51 is due for a correction. Should prices rise above $63.9, look for a test of $64.4. Settling above this will call for a push to challenge $65.0 and possibly $65.6 before the move down extends. Settling above $65.6 is doubtful but would reflect a bullish shift in sentiment.

NY Harbor ULSD Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Diesel settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.6411, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2.5534, the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2.1958, and the 50-day moving average today. This was bearish for the outlook and strongly implies that diesel has adopted a bearish outlook for the coming weeks because the wave down from $2.6411 now favors an eventual test of its $2.108 equal to target.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the 89 percent retracement at $2.231. This is also a confluent projection for the intraday waves down from $2.4647. Closing below $2.231 will call for the $2.195 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2.5534 and then a test of the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.8937 at $2.179. Settling below $2.179 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming weeks and clear the way for $2.149 and $2.108.

Daily trend indicators are now bearish, and there are no bullish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move down to stall. The daily Stochastic is oversold but can remain that way for an extended period. The daily KasePO, KaseCD, and RSI are not oversold yet and must take out the $2.1958 swing low to possibly set up bullish divergences (provided momentum does not fall to new lows too). Nevertheless, should prices rally and overcome $2.305, look for a test of key near-term resistance at $2.350.