WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast – May 20, 2025

Tag: Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continues to trade near the upper end of a wide range that began in early April. Prices rose to challenge the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $63.44 at $62.7 early this week and fulfilled the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $60.08. This wave calls for a test of its $63.5 equal to (1.00) target, which is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from the $78.48 contract high. The $63.5 objective has been tested a few times and has been held on a closing basis. Even so, another test of $63.5 will not likely hold because the wave up from $54.33 favors a test of its $64.7 equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, the near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish.

Nevertheless, trading early this week has reflected uncertainty, warning that another test of support might occur before breaking higher out of the range. Should prices settle below the $60.6 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $63.44, look for a test of $60.2 and then the $59.3 equal to (1.00) target of this wave. The $59.3 level is expected to hold. Settling below this would call for a bearish decision point within the range around $58.0 to be tested.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold initially fell to test and hold $3325 as suspected. However, the bounce up from $3325.4 stalled at $3375.7, and prices fell to test the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $3348.2 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3209.4 at $3296. This important level held on a closing basis, but the move up from $3293.3 has been minimal so far. This is an ideal stalling point should the pullback from $3448.2 prove to be a short-lived correction.

That said, today’s close below the 20-day moving average and the minimal move up from $3293.3 suggest that a test of $3263 will take place ahead of the weekend. This is a bearish decision point because it is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3509.9. Settling below $3263 will call for an extended correction to challenge $3200, and then this wave’s $3148 equal to (1.00) target.

Nevertheless, should prices rally after holding $3296 on a closing basis and overcome $3358, look for a test of $3392. Settling above $3392 will imply that the pullback from $3448.2 is complete. Even so, at this point, gold must settle above the $3441 smaller than target of the wave up from $3209.4 to establish a firm bullish outlook that targets $3538 and higher.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas overcame the $3.648 corrective swing high of the prior primary wave down from $3.747 that had called for a test of $3.38. Prices settled just below the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.747, but the small wave up from $3.564 calls for a test of its $3.67 equal to (1.00) target. Overcoming $3.67 will clear the way for another attempt to settle above a highly confluent and key $3.72 objective. Closing above $3.72 will open the way for $3.81 and likely $3.90 in the coming days.

After rising to $3.656, prices settled into a small range that forms a coil. This pattern should break higher, but coils are not reliable continuation patterns. Taking out $3.56 will confirm a break lower out of the coil and call for a test of $3.50. The $3.50 level is expected to hold. Falling below this would call for a test of key near-term support and the smaller than (0.618) target of the new primary wave down from $3.747 at $3.46.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June WTI crude oil rose to test and hold the $59.8 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $55.30. Prices settled above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $64.87 and confirmed Monday’s hammer candlestick pattern. The outlook for tomorrow is bullish, and a test of the larger than (1.618) target and 50 percent retracement at $60.2 is expected. Overcoming this would call for a near-term bullish decision point at $61.4 to be challenged. This objective is split between the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $54.67 and the 62 percent retracement from $64.87. Settling above $61.4 will likely be a challenge. However, this would imply that the move down from $64.87 is complete and that WTI crude oil will rise to $63.0 and then attempt to close above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from the $79.22 contract high at $64.1 again.

Nevertheless, all major prior swing highs that formed during the move down from $64.87 have held. The 10-day DMI and ADX also reflect a downtrend. Therefore, the move up from $55.30 is still a correction at this point. Prices also pulled back at the end of the day and may test the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $55.30 and today’s midpoint at $58.1 first. Falling below this would call for key near-term support at $57.1 to be challenged. Settling below $57.1 will shift the near-term outlook back to bearish, opening the way for $55.9 and lower.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June gold took out $3275 support and broke lower out of a range that prices had been trading in for the past six days. There is a cluster of wave projections around $3205 that could provide near-term support. However, the first and primary waves down from $3509.9 call for a test of $3137. Settling below $3183 will take out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2970.4 and clear the way for the $3137 target to be fulfilled.

The daily Kase Trend indicator flipped to bearish today and the 10-day DMI also triggered a bearish crossover. Therefore, any move up will likely be a correction as prices fall toward $3137 in the coming days. There are also weekly bearish KaseCD, RSI, and Stochastic divergences that will be confirmed this week. Last week’s shooting star might also be confirmed by a close below $3246 tomorrow. These patterns and signals suggest that the move down from $3509.9 could prove to be a significant test of support.

Nevertheless, for the near term, should prices rise ahead of the weekend, look for initial resistance at $3273 and key resistance at $3327. Settling above $3327 would call for $3364 and possibly $3395. Closing above $3395 would imply that the pullback from $3509.9 is complete.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June natural gas held major support at $3.02 on a closing basis and rallied on Monday. The move up confirmed daily bullish KaseCD and Stochastic divergences and challenged the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $5.069 at $3.44. Prices also settled above the 200-day moving average on Tuesday, but this level was taken out again on Wednesday. Even so, the pullback from $3.457 looks like a correction and held the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $3.457 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3.007 around $3.28 on a closing basis today. The near-term outlook remains bullish, and overcoming $3.39 will call for another test of $3.44, a close above which will open the way for $3.53 and higher.

Nevertheless, the move up from $3.007 is still a simple correction, and today’s small decline dampens the odds for a continued rise. There is also a reasonable chance for another test of $3.28, given the $3.35 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $3.260 held. Taking out $3.28 would call for a test of $3.22 and possibly key support at $3.18. The $3.18 threshold is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $3.457 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.007. Settling below $3.18 would strongly imply that the move up from $3.007 is complete and put the odds in favor of natural gas falling to challenge $3.02 again.

Gasoline Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June gasoline is poised to test $2.044 early tomorrow. This is an important objective that is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2.1241 and the confirmation point of a double top that formed between the $2.1241 and $2.1227 swing highs. Settling below $2.044 will confirm the double top and open the way for an eventual test of the $1.966 target of the reversal pattern. This objective is in line with the crucial 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.8720. Settling below $1.966 will likely be a challenge but would imply that the corrective move up from $1.8720 is complete. Upon a close below $2.044, the connection to $1.966 is made through confluent targets at $2.028 and $1.996.

The $2.044 objective is a potential stalling point. However, there are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. Even so, should prices rise before taking out $2.044, look for resistance at $2.095 to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of $2.125, a close above which will negate the double top and put the near-term odds in favor of gasoline rising to $2.156 and $2.173.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose and settled above Wednesday’s midpoint and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3509.9. This dampens the odds that the wave down from $3509.9, which met its $3276 smaller than (0.618) target, will extend to fulfill its $3202 equal to (1.00) target. However, while the $3396 intra-day swing high holds, this wave will still favor an eventual test of $3202.

Today’s rise warns that the corrective move down from $3509.9 might already be complete. Overcoming the $3386 smaller than target of the wave up from $3270.8 would call for a move above the $3396 intra-day swing high to challenge key near-term resistance at $3421. This is the equal to target of the wave up from $3270.8 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3509.9.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas has settled below the crucial $3.04 target for the past three days. The sustained close below $3.04 is bearish for the outlook because the wave formation down from $4.946 now calls for a test of at least $2.91 and likely the next major objective at $2.83. The decline to $2.955 also took out an important $2.990 swing low on the continuation chart. This negated a five-wave pattern up from the $1.481 swing low and dampened the longer-term odds for a continued rise.

That said, the psychologically important $3.00 level has held on a closing basis, and today’s inside day reflects near-term uncertainty. Any move up will likely be a correction. Even so, settling above key near-term resistance at $3.21 will shift the near-term odds in favor of a larger correction to challenge $3.29 and possibly $3.37.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rose a bit higher today as called for in Monday’s update. The move up is still poised to rise because the primary wave up from $54.67 favors a test of its $66.2 equal to (1.00) target in the coming days. Settling above the $64.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $59.87 will call for $65.1, which then makes the connection to $66.2. A solid test of support is anticipated once the $66.2 objective is fulfilled.

That said, the June contract is struggling to settle above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from the $79.22 contract high at $64.1. A bearish KasePO divergence on the $0.50 Kase Bar chart also warns that a test of $62.5 might occur first. This level is expected to hold. Taking out $62.5 would call for a test of key near-term support and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $54.67 at $60.7.