Natural Gas Price Forecast – August 27, 2025

Tag: Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas continued to rise after confirming daily bullish RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences and overcoming the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.738 on Tuesday. Today’s rise has positioned natural gas to challenge this wave’s $2.92 larger than (1.618) target. The move up is likely a correction, and a simple correction will hold $2.92. Closing above this will call for a more significant test of resistance in the coming days, with targets around the psychologically important $3.00 level.

That said, prices are pulling back and have taken out the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2.738. A correction of the rise from $2.738 should hold the 38 percent retracement at $2.85. Falling below this will call for the key 62 percent retracement to be challenged. Closing below $2.81 will imply that the corrective move up from $2.738 is complete and put the near-term odds in favor of natural gas falling to challenge $2.76 and lower in the coming days.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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November Brent crude oil held the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $71.93 and the 200-day moving average on a closing basis on Monday. Today’s decline retraced nearly 50 percent of the rise from $64.54 and has put prices back below the 20- and 50-day moving averages. This suggests that the corrective move up from $64.54 is complete.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $66.1. Settling below this will call for another attempt to take out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from 57.81 and the 100-day moving average at $64.9. Closing below $64.9 will clear the way for another test of the $64.6 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $76.39. This is a bearish decision point because settling below $64.6 for a few days would open the way for an eventual test of this wave’s $60.0 equal to (1.00) target and break the bottom trend line of a large flat descending triangle around $64.5.

That said, the move up from $64.54 stalled short of the upper trend line of the flat descending triangle pattern. Should prices rally again and close above $68.6, look for a break higher out of the pattern to challenge the $69.1 smaller than target of the wave up from $64.5. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $71.93. The wave up from $64.5 connects to $72.0 as the equal to target.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas retains a firm bearish outlook and is poised to reach targets at $2.73, $2.68, and $2.64 in the coming days. These are confluent projections of the waves down from $4.198, $3.657, and most recently, $3.148. The wave down from $3.148 projects to $2.73 as the equal to (1.00) target and connects to $2.64 as the intermediate (1.382) target. The $2.64 objective is a probable stalling point because this is also the equal to target of the largest wave down from $4.198. However, any move up will likely be a correction because the primary wave down from $5.21 calls for an eventual test of its $2.38 equal to target. This is also the equal to target of the wave down from $3.657 that projects to $2.68 as the smaller than (0.618) target.

That said, today’s morning star setup and the wave up from $2.764 warn that a correction might occur first. The wave up from $2.764 fulfilled its $2.84 smaller than target and projects to $2.88 as the equal to target. Therefore, there is a good chance for a test of at least $2.88 first. However, should prices take out the $2.791 swing low, this wave will be invalidated, opening the way for $2.73 and lower.

Nevertheless, overcoming $2.88 would call for the $2.91 completion point of the morning star to be challenged. A simple correction will likely hold $2.91 because this is also the intermediate target of the wave up from $2.764 and the 38 percent retracement from $3.148. Key resistance for the near-term outlook is $2.99. This is the confirmation point of the morning star reversal pattern and the 62 percent retracement from $3.148. Settling above $2.99 is currently doubtful but would reflect a bullish shift in near-term sentiment.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil held below the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $70.51 and settled back below the 100-day moving average today. The move down is poised to challenge $62.8 again. This is an area where a double bottom may have formed. The $62.8 objective is also in line with the $62.83 and $62.81 swing highs of a range that prices traded in between early April and late May. However, based on the recent intraday waves down from $64.48 and $64.44, WTI crude oil favors a test of $62.4. This is a longer-term bearish decision point because $62.4 is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.01 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $75.98. This wave connects to $57.4 as the equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, a sustained close below $62.4 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, given the confluence and importance of both the $62.8 and $62.4 targets, sustaining a close below $62.4 will likely be a challenge without a test of resistance first. The daily Stochastic is oversold, and the move down from $70.51 is due for a correction. Should prices rise above $63.9, look for a test of $64.4. Settling above this will call for a push to challenge $65.0 and possibly $65.6 before the move down extends. Settling above $65.6 is doubtful but would reflect a bullish shift in sentiment.

NY Harbor ULSD Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Diesel settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.6411, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2.5534, the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2.1958, and the 50-day moving average today. This was bearish for the outlook and strongly implies that diesel has adopted a bearish outlook for the coming weeks because the wave down from $2.6411 now favors an eventual test of its $2.108 equal to target.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the 89 percent retracement at $2.231. This is also a confluent projection for the intraday waves down from $2.4647. Closing below $2.231 will call for the $2.195 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2.5534 and then a test of the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.8937 at $2.179. Settling below $2.179 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming weeks and clear the way for $2.149 and $2.108.

Daily trend indicators are now bearish, and there are no bullish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move down to stall. The daily Stochastic is oversold but can remain that way for an extended period. The daily KasePO, KaseCD, and RSI are not oversold yet and must take out the $2.1958 swing low to possibly set up bullish divergences (provided momentum does not fall to new lows too). Nevertheless, should prices rally and overcome $2.305, look for a test of key near-term resistance at $2.350.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas settled below the $3.07 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $5.210 today. This was a bearish decision point for the coming weeks and perhaps months because this wave now favors an eventual test of its $2.37 equal to (1.00) target. Prices must still contend with support at the psychologically important $3.00 level. Even so, the intraday wave down from $3.190 calls for a test of its $2.98 XC (2.734) projection. Closing below this will confirm a break of $3.00, opening the way for $2.95, $2.87, and $2.82 in the coming days.

There are no bullish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move down to stall. There are daily bullish momentum divergence setups, but today’s decline to a new low dampened the odds that these bullish signals will be confirmed.

Nevertheless, since $3.00 has been held so far, this is still an area where a correction might occur. Should prices rise above $3.08, look for a test of $3.11 and possibly key near-term resistance at $3.16.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

September Brent crude oil broke higher out of the recent trading range by settling above $70.0 today. The rise during the past two days reflects an increase in bullish sentiment. The move up is now poised to fulfill the $72.1 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $65.06. This is a potential stalling point, but any pullback will likely be a correction and should hold $70.6. Settling above $72.1 will clear the way for a test of $72.5, the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.73 at $72.9, and then the $74.2 intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $65.06 in the coming days.

There are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall after today’s break higher. Even so, $72.1 is a confluent target and, as stated, a potential stalling point. A correction is expected to hold today’s $70.6 midpoint and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $65.06. Falling below this would call for a test of key near-term support at $69.4. This threshold is in line with today’s open, the 38 percent retracement, and the 200-day moving average. Closing below $69.4 will warn that the move up is failing and call for tests of the 50 and 62 percent retracement levels at $68.5 and $67.7, respectively.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas prices plummeted after the August contract tested and failed to close above the $3.57 completion point of a weekly morning star last week. The move down reflects renewed bearish sentiment, and prices settled below a longer-term bearish decision point at $3.08 today. The $3.08 objective is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $5.254 and connects to $2.37 as the equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, the outlook has become much more bearish for the coming weeks.

Tomorrow, look for a test of at least $3.03 and likely $3.00. Falling below $3.00, which may initially be a challenge given its psychological significance, will call for the $2.94 smaller than target of the primary wave down from $4.230. This is also the equal to (1.00) target of the first wave down from $4.230.

Nonetheless, the move down is due for a correction because the first intraday wave down from $3.629 is overextended. Daily momentum is nearing oversold territory and conditions are ripe for daily bullish divergences on a few momentum oscillators. Even so, there are no bullish patterns or confirmed signals that call for a correction. Should prices turn higher tomorrow and close above today’s $3.25 open, the near-term odds will shift in favor of testing the respective 50 and 62 percent retracement levels of the decline from $3.629 at $3.35 and $3.41.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

September WTI crude oil has been indecisive for the past week. Today, prices fell to challenge the $65.2 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $68.16, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $62.84 at $64.9, and the 20-day moving average. All three held on a closing basis. Even so, prices have held below the 200-day moving average for the past three days, and the move up from $62.84 has not been able to settle above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $75.98 at $67.8.

The near-term outlook is tight. The 62 percent retracement of the rise from $62.84 at $64.9 has been resilient. However, the wave down from $68.16 leans in favor of testing its $63.9 equal to (1.00) target, given that the $65.2 smaller than target has been fulfilled. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bearish, and closing below $64.9 will clear the way for a test of $64.3 and likely $63.9 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, because $64.9 has held twice on a closing basis within the past week, there is still a reasonable chance for another attempt to challenge crucial resistance at $67.8 again. Overcoming the 200-day moving average at $66.2 will call for a test of the $66.8 smaller than target of the wave up from $64.38. This wave then connects to $67.8 as the equal to target. Settling above $67.8 will confirm a bullish outlook.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to challenge a crucial objective at $3.57 today. This target is highly confluent, and, most importantly, is in line with the completion point of a weekly morning star setup, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $3.149, and the 20-day moving average. Prices are rising toward $3.57 again late this afternoon. Natural gas is poised to overcome $3.57 to test at least $3.60 and likely $3.67 within the next day or so. Closing above these objectives will not only complete the weekly morning star but also open the way for a test of the reversal pattern’s $3.73 confirmation point. Settling above $3.73 will reflect rising bullish sentiment and indicate that a bullish reversal is underway.

The $3.57 target is a potential stalling point. Bearish KasePO and KaseCD divergences on the $0.025 Kase Bar chart warn that a deeper test of support might occur. However, there are no bearish signals on the daily chart, and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $3.149 at $3.50 held. Taking out $3.50 would call for a test of key near-term support and the 38 percent retracement at $3.43. Settling below $3.43 will warn that the move up is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of natural gas falling to challenge $3.37 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $3.32.