Gasoline Price Forecast – April 29, 2025

Tag: Technical Analysis

Gasoline Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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June gasoline is poised to test $2.044 early tomorrow. This is an important objective that is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2.1241 and the confirmation point of a double top that formed between the $2.1241 and $2.1227 swing highs. Settling below $2.044 will confirm the double top and open the way for an eventual test of the $1.966 target of the reversal pattern. This objective is in line with the crucial 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.8720. Settling below $1.966 will likely be a challenge but would imply that the corrective move up from $1.8720 is complete. Upon a close below $2.044, the connection to $1.966 is made through confluent targets at $2.028 and $1.996.

The $2.044 objective is a potential stalling point. However, there are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. Even so, should prices rise before taking out $2.044, look for resistance at $2.095 to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of $2.125, a close above which will negate the double top and put the near-term odds in favor of gasoline rising to $2.156 and $2.173.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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Gold rose and settled above Wednesday’s midpoint and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3509.9. This dampens the odds that the wave down from $3509.9, which met its $3276 smaller than (0.618) target, will extend to fulfill its $3202 equal to (1.00) target. However, while the $3396 intra-day swing high holds, this wave will still favor an eventual test of $3202.

Today’s rise warns that the corrective move down from $3509.9 might already be complete. Overcoming the $3386 smaller than target of the wave up from $3270.8 would call for a move above the $3396 intra-day swing high to challenge key near-term resistance at $3421. This is the equal to target of the wave up from $3270.8 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3509.9.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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Natural gas has settled below the crucial $3.04 target for the past three days. The sustained close below $3.04 is bearish for the outlook because the wave formation down from $4.946 now calls for a test of at least $2.91 and likely the next major objective at $2.83. The decline to $2.955 also took out an important $2.990 swing low on the continuation chart. This negated a five-wave pattern up from the $1.481 swing low and dampened the longer-term odds for a continued rise.

That said, the psychologically important $3.00 level has held on a closing basis, and today’s inside day reflects near-term uncertainty. Any move up will likely be a correction. Even so, settling above key near-term resistance at $3.21 will shift the near-term odds in favor of a larger correction to challenge $3.29 and possibly $3.37.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil rose a bit higher today as called for in Monday’s update. The move up is still poised to rise because the primary wave up from $54.67 favors a test of its $66.2 equal to (1.00) target in the coming days. Settling above the $64.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $59.87 will call for $65.1, which then makes the connection to $66.2. A solid test of support is anticipated once the $66.2 objective is fulfilled.

That said, the June contract is struggling to settle above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from the $79.22 contract high at $64.1. A bearish KasePO divergence on the $0.50 Kase Bar chart also warns that a test of $62.5 might occur first. This level is expected to hold. Taking out $62.5 would call for a test of key near-term support and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $54.67 at $60.7.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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Natural gas continued to decline but is struggling to settle below the 200-day moving average at $3.21. Even so, today’s move down negated Tuesday’s hammer, and the primary wave down from $4.946 favors a test of its $3.04 intermediate (1.382) target. Therefore, the outlook remains bearish. The connection to $3.04 is made through a confluent but structurally minor target at $3.14. The $3.04 objective is a key target and probable stalling point for both the May contract and the continuation chart. Once $3.04 is met, a test of resistance is anticipated.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for a reversal. Even so, should the 200-day moving average continue to hold and prices overcome $3.32, look for a test of $3.38 and possibly key near-term resistance at $3.44.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil formed another daily doji. So far, trading this week has reflected uncertainty, suggesting that traders are awaiting further information. The near-term outlook leans bullish because the waves up from $62.0 call for a test of $66.0, a close above which will clear the way for the $66.8 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $58.4 to be challenged. Settling above $66.8 will confirm a bullish outlook for the coming days and open the way for a push to fulfill the $69.7 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $58.4. The connection to $69.7 is made through targets at $68.3 and $69.2.

Nonetheless, there is some evidence that suggests another test of support might occur first. The wave down from $65.9 fulfilled its $64.2 smaller than target today. This wave connects to $63.5 as the equal to target, which is also in line with the smaller than target of the wave down from $66.08. Falling below $62.8 would call for a test of key support and this wave’s $61.8 equal to target. This objective is key because falling to $61.8 would take out the $62.0 swing low and invalidate the wave up from $58.4 which projects to $66.8 and higher.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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May natural gas initially fell below the crucial $3.40 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $4.946. The move down stalled at $3.336, which was just above the $3.31 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $4.322 and the XC (2.764) projection of the wave down from $4.253. The subsequent move up recaptured the 100-day moving average, settled above Tuesday’s open, and confirmed daily bullish MACD and Stochastic divergences. Therefore, a bullish reversal might be underway.

The intra-day wave formation up from $3.336 calls for a test of $3.89. This is the highest that the first wave up from $3.336 projects and is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4.253. Overcoming this will call for the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $4.946 at $3.95 to be tested. Settling above $3.95 will imply that the move up is more than just a simple correction, clearing the way for $4.05 and possibly $4.15 to be challenged in the coming days.

Nevertheless, Monday’s open held on a closing basis and the wave formation up from $3.336 is due for a correction before overcoming $3.89. Should prices turn lower early tomorrow look for initial support at $3.64 and then $3.52. The $3.52 level is expected to hold. Falling below this would call for another attempt to settle below key support at $3.40.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil shook off Monday’s long-legged doji and is continuing to work its way lower after settling below the equal to (1.00) target of the waves down from the $79.52 May contract high and the $76.57 swing high. The intra-day wave down from $63.90 took out its $59.3 smaller than (0.618) target late this afternoon and is poised to reach at least the $57.7 equal to target tomorrow. This wave makes a connection to $56.1 as the intermediate (1.382) target. This is also the intermediate target of the largest wave down from $76.57. As prices fall toward $56.1 look for the $56.7 intermediate target of the wave down from $78.14 to be fulfilled. Settling below $56.1 will clear the way for the $55.5 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $63.90 and the intermediate target of the wave down from $79.52 to be fulfilled.

Today’s decline negated Monday’s long-legged doji, so there are no bullish patterns that call for the move down to stall. Even so, the daily KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, and Stochastic are oversold. The oversold momentum oscillators warn that a test of resistance might occur soon. Any move up will likely be a correction though as the wave formation is now poised to reach the targets in the mid-$50s. Initial resistance is $60.3 and key near-term resistance is $61.2. Settling above $61.2 would shift the near-term odds in favor of a solid correction before the move down extends to fulfill the targets in the mid-$50s as expected.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

May natural gas broke through support at $4.05 late last week and has continued to grind its way lower for the past few days. Prices are struggling to close below the 50-day moving average at $3.85. Even so, the wave formation calls for a test of the $3.76 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $4.946. This is also the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $2.595. The $3.76 target is a decision point. Settling below $3.76 will open the way for the eventual fulfillment of this wave’s $3.40 equal to (1.00) target, with a test of the crucial 62 percent retracement at $3.49 along the way.

Daily momentum is working it was lower too and the 10-day DMI had a bearish crossover on Tuesday. The ADX is below 25 and declining though, so there is currently not a trend reflected by these indicators on the daily chart. There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching $3.76, but support around the 50-day moving average has been resilient for the past two days. Should May natural gas rally and overcome $3.96 look for a test of $4.02 and possibly key near-term resistance at $4.07.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

May WTI crude oil held resistance at $69.7 and settled below the crucial $69.2 level again. The $69.2 threshold is a decision point for WTI crude oil because it is in line with the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $64.85, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $76.57, and the bullish threshold for the daily Kase Trend indicator.

A normal correction of the decline from $76.57 should continue to hold $69.2 on a closing basis. Today’s long-legged doji and daily bearish KaseCD divergence setup indicate this may be the case. To confirm the bearish momentum divergence, today’s $69.68 high must hold and WTI crude oil must fall below today’s $68.52 low. The smaller than (0.618) target of the intra-day wave down from $69.68 is $69.4. Falling below this will call for $67.9, a close below which will confirm the long-legged doji and take out the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $64.85. Such a move would open the way for tests of $67.3 and $66.7 in the coming days. Settling below $66.7 will imply that the corrective move up from $64.85 is complete.

Nevertheless, this is a very tight call for tomorrow. Closing above the $69.8 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $64.85 will confirm bullish sentiment and open the way for tests of the 50- and 200-day moving averages at $70.4, thus overcoming the $70.19 swing high. In this scenario there is also a good chance for a test of $70.8 and eventually a key resistance level at $71.9, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $76.57. Settling above $71.9 will imply that the move down from $76.57 is complete and that WTI crude oil has adopted a bullish outlook for the coming weeks.