Crude Oil Price Forecast – May 14, 2024

Tag: Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil is still trying to work its way lower and is poised to test the intermediate (1.382) target of the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64 again. Support at $78.0 has held on a closing basis, but the recent waves down from $79.96 favor a test of $77.5 tomorrow. Settling below $77.5 will open the way for tests of $77.0, $76.5, and then a long-term bearish decision point at $76.0. The $76.0 target is most important because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $86.97 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08. A sustained close below $76.0 would reflect a longer-term bearish shift in sentiment for WTI crude oil.

With that said, support between $77.5 and $78.0 has been resilient. In addition to being a confluent area of wave projections at $77.5, the $78.0 level lines up with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08 and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Should this area continue to hold and WTI crude oil rises above $78.5 look for a test of $79.0 and possibly key near-term resistance at $79.6. The $79.6 level is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $76.89. Settling above this would call for a test of this wave’s $80.8 equal to (1.00), which is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.97.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil is trying to work its way lower but is struggling to settle below $78.0 support. This is in line with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $70.11 and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Even so, the outlook remains bearish and a close below $77.5, which is the intermediate (1.382) target of the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64, will open the way for $76.5 and then a bearish decision point at $76.0 to be challenged. The $76.0 target is most important because this is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $86.97 and 62 percent retracement of the rise from $70.11. A test of resistance is anticipated before sustaining a close below $76.0. An eventual sustained close below $76.0 would confirm a longer-term bearish shift in sentiment and the outlook for the coming weeks.

With that said, the failure to close below $78.0 for the past few days warns that a test of resistance might take place before reaching $76.0. Any move up will likely be a correction though and is expected to hold key near-term resistance at $80.1. Settling above $80.1 would shift the odds in favor of a larger test of resistance for WTI crude oil before the move down extends.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil fell to challenge resilient support at the $81.0 target of a confirmed double top that formed around $86.9. The $81.0 target held again, and prices formed a wave up from $80.95 that warns a test of $82.8 might take place first. Even so, the move up will likely be a correction because the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64 have fulfilled their smaller than (0.618) targets. Waves that meet the smaller than target typically extend to at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $79.7 for both waves. Closing below $81.0 will open the way for tests of $80.3 and the $79.7 objective within the next few days.

With that said, WTI crude oil’s pullback from $86.97 may form a bullish flat descending triangle. This is a continuation pattern, a break higher out of which would be confirmed by a close above key near-term resistance at $84.6. Should WTI crude oil overcome $82.8 look for a test of $83.3 and possibly $84.6. Settling above $84.6 would strongly suggest that the corrective pullback from $86.97 is complete and shift the odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to $$85.1 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June WTI crude oil retested the $81.0 target of a confirmed double top that formed around $86.9 today. This has been resilient support for the past few days and held on a closing basis again. The wave up from $80.7 extended and settled the day above its equal to (1.00) target and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.97. WTI also settled just below the $83.5 completion point of bullish daily hammers and an inverted hammer that formed Thursday, Friday, and Monday. The wave up from $80.7 is now poised to overcome $83.5 to fulfill its $84.0 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $84.7 larger than (1.618) target. The $84.7 target is most important because it is also in line with the 62 percent retracement from $86.97 and the confirmation point of the bullish daily candlesticks. Settling above $84.7 will strongly imply that the corrective pullback from $86.97 is complete and that WTI crude oil will work its way to a new uptrend high in the coming days.

Today’s rise was bullish for the near-term outlook. However, while the $85.64 swing high holds the wave down from $86.97 still has potential to extend to its $79.7 equal to (1.00) target. This is because this wave took out its smaller than (0.618) target a few days ago. Should prices turn lower early tomorrow look for initial support at $82.4. Falling below this will call for $81.7 and possibly another attempt to take out key support at $81.0. Settling below $81.0 will clear the way for the $79.7 threshold to be fulfilled.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s corrective move down accelerated today. Prices settled below the 20-day moving average, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $80.3, and the $84.55 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $87.65. The daily Kase Trend indicator is now bearish and the 10-day DMI had a bearish crossover. The $82.56 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $87.67 held, so a test of resistance might occur first. Even so, today’s $84.0 midpoint is expected to hold because the move down should now fulfill the $81.5 target of the double top within the next few days. Settling below $81.5 will call for the $81.1 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $80.3 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $87.67 to be fulfilled.

The aggressive nature of today’s move down likely reflects a bearish shift in near-term sentiment. Nevertheless, the move down is still a correction and would have to take out the last major swing low of $80.3 to suggest further that a reversal is underway. Also, because $82.6 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a test of resistance first. As stated, today’s $84.0 midpoint is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $87.67 at $84.5. This was major support that has now become resistance given $84.5 is also in line with the $84.55 confirmation point of the confirmed double top.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s uptrend is intact but has been due for a correction. Friday’s confirmed evening star, Monday’s long-legged doji, and daily bearish weak KaseCD and MACD divergences indicate a solid test of support should take place before the uptrend extends. Furthermore, Tuesday’s decline took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $87.63 and the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $87.1. Therefore, the corrective move down is poised to test at least $84.7 and likely the $84.1 equal to target of the wave down from $87.63. Settling below $84.1, which is also the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $80.3, will call for an extended correction to challenge this wave’s $83.0 intermediate (1.382) and $82.3 larger than (1.618) targets in the coming days.

Taking out the $85.3 target has increased the odds for a deeper test of support. However, this is still a somewhat tight call for the near term because similar corrections in recent weeks have been short-lived. Should WTI crude oil turn higher and overcome the $86.6 smaller than target of the wave up from $84.69 the odds for a deeper test of support will be significantly dampened. In this scenario, look for a test of key near-term resistance at $87.5. Settling above $87.5 would confirm that the correction is complete and shift near-term odds in favor of rising to $88.4 and likely $89.1.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s pullback from $83.12 is likely a correction. Last week’s shooting star, confirmed daily KaseCD and MACD divergences, and a daily PeakOut (overbought) signal indicate a deeper test of support should take place. However, Monday’s rally and move above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $83.12 dampened the odds for an extended correction.

Nevertheless, Tuesday’s move down fulfilled the $81.5 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $82.48. Furthermore, with gasoline and diesel prices falling WTI will probably be hard-pressed to settle above key resistance at $82.6 during the next few days. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bearish and closing below $81.1, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $80.3, will call for a test of the $80.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $83.12. Settling below this will open the way for a test of at least this wave’s $79.7 equal to (1.00) target before the uptrend extends to a new high.

With that said, this is a tight call for the next few days. The uptrend is intact and, as stated, the pullback from $83.12 is likely a correction. Should WTI crude oil rise again and overcome $82.1 look for a test of the $82.6 smaller than target of the compound wave up from $80.3. Settling above this would shift the near-term odds back in favor of prices rising to $83.3 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s move up has been due for a correction. Today’s close below Monday’s midpoint and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $76.43 and the confirmation of a daily bearish MACD divergence indicates such a move is underway. Tomorrow, look for a test of $80.6. This is Monday’s open and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $76.43. Settling below $80.6 will clear the way for a deeper test of support with important targets at $80.1 and $79.0.

With that said, the move down is likely a correction. Should WTI rally again and close back above $82.2 there is a good chance that the corrective move down is complete. Closing above $83.1, the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $84.87, will confirm this is the case and put near-term odds back in favor of WTI crude oil reaching $83.7 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil tested and held the $77.3 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down $80.85 on a closing basis again today. The $77.3 objective is also the equal to target of the wave down from $80.67 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $71.49. This has become an important target because closing below $77.3 would imply that the move down from $80.85 is more than a simple correction. Near-term odds still favor such a move, which will open the way for a test of the $76.2 intermediate (1.382) and possibly the $75.4 larger than (1.618) targets of the wave down from $80.85 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, another daily long-legged doji reflects uncertainty and warns that the corrective pullback from $80.85 might be complete. Settling above $79.3, the equal to target of the wave up from $76.79 and 62 percent retracement of the decline from $80.85, would strongly suggest this is the case. Closing above $79.9, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $75.84 and intermediate target of the wave up from $76.79, would confirm this is the case and put near-term odds in favor of $80.4 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continued to fall as called for today and settled below the confirmation point of Monday’s bearish dark cloud cover. The new primary wave down from $80.85 is poised to test its $77.3 smaller than (0.618) target. This objective is in line with the 20-day moving average and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $71.49. Settling below $77.3 might initially prove to be a challenge given its confluence but would open the way for a test of the $76.2 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $80.85. This has become the most important level of support for the near-term outlook because $76.2 is also the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $71.49 and the 38 percent retracement from $68.57.

Nevertheless, the move down is likely a correction because all major prior swing lows have held and WTI is still trading above all major daily moving averages. The daily Kase Trend indicator is also bullish. Should WTI rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $79.0. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $77.52 and connects to key near-term resistance at $79.7 as the equal to target. The $79.7 level is also near the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $80.85. Therefore, closing above $79.7 would imply that the corrective move down is complete and put near-term odds in favor of retesting major resistance around $80.5.