WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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November WTI crude oil pulled back to test and hold the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $60.40 before rallying. Prices settled below the $61.8 confirmation point of Friday’s inverted hammer but overcame the smaller than (0.618) target of the new primary wave up from $60.40 and the sub-wave up from $60.72. The move up is likely a correction, but the inverted hammer, confirmed daily RSI and MACD divergences, and the wave formation up from $60.40 call for a test of at least $62.4. Overcoming $62.4 will call for a move above the 38 percent retracement from $66.42 at $62.7 to challenge a confluent $63.0 target and possibly higher in the coming days.
The move up from $60.40 has been relatively shallow compared to the decline from $66.42, and as stated, is likely a correction. Currently, taking out $61.1 would call for a test of $60.6, a close below which will strongly suggest that the correction is complete. However, WTI will likely have to take out $60.3, the most confluent threshold on the chart, and a projection of the waves down from $66.42, $63.02, and $62.12 to open the way for $60.0 and lower.
Also note that should $62.4 hold and prices begin to pull back again, a bearish flag will form. Therefore, breaking through $62.4 will be crucial in proving that the move up from $60.40 is more than a short-lived correction.
