WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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September WTI crude oil has been indecisive for the past week. Today, prices fell to challenge the $65.2 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $68.16, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $62.84 at $64.9, and the 20-day moving average. All three held on a closing basis. Even so, prices have held below the 200-day moving average for the past three days, and the move up from $62.84 has not been able to settle above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $75.98 at $67.8.
The near-term outlook is tight. The 62 percent retracement of the rise from $62.84 at $64.9 has been resilient. However, the wave down from $68.16 leans in favor of testing its $63.9 equal to (1.00) target, given that the $65.2 smaller than target has been fulfilled. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bearish, and closing below $64.9 will clear the way for a test of $64.3 and likely $63.9 in the coming days.
Nevertheless, because $64.9 has held twice on a closing basis within the past week, there is still a reasonable chance for another attempt to challenge crucial resistance at $67.8 again. Overcoming the 200-day moving average at $66.2 will call for a test of the $66.8 smaller than target of the wave up from $64.38. This wave then connects to $67.8 as the equal to target. Settling above $67.8 will confirm a bullish outlook.
