WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast – July 22, 2025

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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September WTI crude oil has been indecisive for the past week. Today, prices fell to challenge the $65.2 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $68.16, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $62.84 at $64.9, and the 20-day moving average. All three held on a closing basis. Even so, prices have held below the 200-day moving average for the past three days, and the move up from $62.84 has not been able to settle above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $75.98 at $67.8.

The near-term outlook is tight. The 62 percent retracement of the rise from $62.84 at $64.9 has been resilient. However, the wave down from $68.16 leans in favor of testing its $63.9 equal to (1.00) target, given that the $65.2 smaller than target has been fulfilled. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bearish, and closing below $64.9 will clear the way for a test of $64.3 and likely $63.9 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, because $64.9 has held twice on a closing basis within the past week, there is still a reasonable chance for another attempt to challenge crucial resistance at $67.8 again. Overcoming the 200-day moving average at $66.2 will call for a test of the $66.8 smaller than target of the wave up from $64.38. This wave then connects to $67.8 as the equal to target. Settling above $67.8 will confirm a bullish outlook.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.