WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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WTI crude oil held below the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $70.51 and settled back below the 100-day moving average today. The move down is poised to challenge $62.8 again. This is an area where a double bottom may have formed. The $62.8 objective is also in line with the $62.83 and $62.81 swing highs of a range that prices traded in between early April and late May. However, based on the recent intraday waves down from $64.48 and $64.44, WTI crude oil favors a test of $62.4. This is a longer-term bearish decision point because $62.4 is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.01 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $75.98. This wave connects to $57.4 as the equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, a sustained close below $62.4 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming weeks.
Nevertheless, given the confluence and importance of both the $62.8 and $62.4 targets, sustaining a close below $62.4 will likely be a challenge without a test of resistance first. The daily Stochastic is oversold, and the move down from $70.51 is due for a correction. Should prices rise above $63.9, look for a test of $64.4. Settling above this will call for a push to challenge $65.0 and possibly $65.6 before the move down extends. Settling above $65.6 is doubtful but would reflect a bullish shift in sentiment.
