WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
The long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. However, a confirmed daily RSI divergence and daily bearish doji suggest the pullback from $46.68 should extend a bit lower before the move up continues. Today’s decline to $45.14 fulfilled the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $46.68. The subsequent move up to $45.93 has been lackluster so far. Another test of $46.1 is expected, a close below which will clear the way for $44.4 and possibly $43.9 during the next few days.
With that said, this has become a very tight call because of a small intra-day double bottom that formed between today’s $45.14 and $45.16 swing lows. The wave up from $45.14 has overcome its smaller than (0.618) target, which implies that the double bottom’s $45.93 confirmation point will likely be challenged early tomorrow. Closing above $45.93 will confirm the double bottom and clear the way for $46.4 and possibly $46.9.
Resistance at $46.4, which the 62 percent retracement of the decline from January’s $58.92 swing high is expected to hold. Nonetheless, $46.9 is most important for the near-term outlook because this is in line with the double bottom’s target and the smaller than target of the wave up from $43.92. Settling above $46.9 would confirm that the corrective pullback is over and would open the way for the next leg of the move up to unfold.
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