Crude Oil Price Forecast – August 3, 2021

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil stalled at $69.19 and formed a daily bullish hammer. Today’s prices action was lackluster compared to Monday’s sell-off and suggests that the move down will probably prove to be another short-lived correction. Moreover, the wave formation up from $69.19 calls for a test of at least $71.5, which then connects to $72.5. For the move down to extend again during the next few days $72.5 must hold. Closing above this will complete the hammer, overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $74.2, and call for a test of the hammer’s $73.9 confirmation point.

With that said, today’s hammer is not enough to definitively state that the move down is complete. Falling below $69.8 before overcoming $71.5 will call for a test of $68.5. This is a crucial level because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $65.01. Taking out $68.5 will significantly dampen odds for a continued rise and call for key support at $67.6 to be challenged. This threshold is split between the smaller than (0.618) target of the waves down from $76.07 and $74.2. Settling below $67.6 will open the way for $65.9 and likely lower in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil - $1.00 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $1.00 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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