Natural Gas Price Forecast – March 6, 2024

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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April natural gas is struggling to settle above a confluent and important target at $1.96. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1.600 and the larger than (1.618) target of the first subwave up from $1.683. This target has held on a closing basis for the past few days. The pullback from $2.009 warns that a test of $1.90 will probably take place before the move up extends. Even so, the move down will likely prove to be a simple correction and should hold $1.900. The near-term outlook for natural gas remains bullish and closing above $1.960 will call for another test of $2.00 and likely a push to challenge $2.03 and then the $2.07 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $1.600.

With that said, should the corrective pullback from $2.009 take out $1.90 look for a test of key near-term support at $1.85. This is the larger than target of the wave down from $2.009 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1.600. A normal correction should hold $1.85. Closing below this would shift the near-term odds in favor of a more substantial test of support where $1.76, the XC (2.764) projection and 62 percent retracement, is most important. Settling below $1.76 would reflect a bearish shift in sentiment and imply that the move up is complete.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.