Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Natural gas stalled just below $4.24 support before rising and forming a wave up from $4.227 that settled above its $4.44 smaller than (0.618) target. This wave calls for a test of a highly confluent and crucial target at $4.56 tomorrow. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $3.019 and the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $4.227. The $4.56 objective is also the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $1.481 and the smaller than target of the compound wave up from $1.856 on the continuation chart. Therefore, settling above $4.56 might continue to be a challenge given the importance of this objective. An eventual close above $4.56 will open the way for $4.67 and then another highly confluent objective at $4.74.
Nevertheless, the wave down from $4.551 took out its $4.32 smaller than target when prices fell to $4.264. Therefore, while the $4.518 swing high holds, this wave still has the potential to fulfill its $4.19 equal to (1.00) target. Taking out $4.32 will call for another test of $4.24, a close below which will clear the way for a test of $4.19.
