Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
June natural gas has been trading in a range between approximately $1.92 and $2.14 since mid-March. Prices tried to break higher out of the range on Tuesday but held the $2.14 equal to (1.00) target of the prior primary wave up from $1.907. Today’s pullback from $2.140 took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.148 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.907. This was bearish for the outlook and calls for another test of the crucial $1.92 objective. Settling below $1.92 will call for a test of a minor target at $1.88 and then the next major objectives at $1.84 and $1.78 in the coming days.
Given the aggressive nature of today’s move down there is little technical evidence to call for the move down to stall before testing at least $1.92. However, should $1.92 continue to hold prices will likely continue to consolidate in the trading range. Should prices rise and overcome $2.03 look for a test of $2.07 and possibly key resistance and the smaller than (0.618) target of the new wave up from $1.907 at $2.11.
