Natural Gas Forecast: Prices on Verge of Breaking Higher Out of Trading Range

For the past few weeks, May natural gas has oscillated in a range between approximately $1.86 and $2.06. The market looks as though it wants to break higher after closing over Monday’s gap down from $1.99 on Tuesday and sustaining a close above $2.00 on Wednesday.

May natural gas is working its way toward the crucial $2.06 target again after stalling early on Wednesday at $2.051. Support held and prices recovered late, but formed an evening star setup on the daily chart.

NGK6 20160413

It is still a very tough call, but currently, odds favor another test of $2.06 on Thursday. A close over this would call for $2.10 and likely $2.14 where there is a cluster of wave projections. However, keep in mind the move up is likely weather driven right now and corrective of the longer-term decline. Therefore, without help from external factors, the market will be hard pressed to overcome $2.14.

Initial support at $1.98 should hold on Thursday, but crucial support will be $1.94. A close below $1.94 does not doom the prospects of the move up, but would open the way for a test of the key $1.86 level.

This is a brief natural gas forecast for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough analysis. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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