Gold Price Forecast – December 17, 2020

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold challenged crucial resistance around $1894 and settled above the 50-day moving average today. This is quite bullish for the outlook because $1894 is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1973.3, the 38 percent retracement from $2099.2, and, most importantly, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1767.2. Most waves that meet the smaller than target rise to fulfill at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $1930. Consequently, due to the confluence and importance of $1894, a sustained close above this objective would be a firm warning that the move down from $2099.2 might be complete and suggest that a longer-term bullish outlook is being readopted.

Gold - $10 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, because $1894.0 held on a closing basis there is a reasonable chance for a corrective pullback to $1872 and possibly $1852 first. Support at $1852 is expected to hold. Closing below this will call for a test of key near-term support at $1833. This threshold is in line with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1767.2 and the 200-day moving average. Closing below $1833 would call for a move below the $1820.0 swing low. This would invalidate the wave up from $1767.2 that makes the connection from $1894 to $1930 and higher and confirm that the move up has failed.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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