WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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January WTI crude oil failed to test the 62 percent retracement from $61.84 and the 50-day moving average around $60.0 again. The $60.0 level was challenged and held on Monday. Instead, prices fell and formed a daily bearish engulfing line. Today’s engulfing line is not as meaningful as one that forms during an uptrend. However, it suggests that a shortfall within the descending broadening wedge that formed during the decline from $61.84 has occurred. A shortfall is a failure to test the upper or lower trendline of a pattern and typically indicates the pattern will fail. In this case, the wedge may also fail because prices have already retraced more than 62 percent of the rise from $55.99. There is also a complex intraday head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at $58.3. The target of this pattern is $56.6.

A test of at least $58.3 and likely $57.7 will occur tomorrow. The $57.7 target is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $61.18 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $60.85. The $57.7 target has been tested a few times, but has held on a closing basis. Closing below $57.7 will provide more evidence that the wedge will fail to break higher and open the way for $57.1 and then a highly confluent and important target at $56.6.

Nevertheless, trading has been erratic for the past few weeks, thus the formation of the wedge. The 50 percent retracement of the rise from $57.1 held on a closing basis today, so there is still a modest chance for another attempt to overcome $60.0 and challenge the upper trendline of the wedge around $60.4. Closing above $60.4 will call for the $60.8 smaller than target of the wave up from $55.99 to be challenged. Settling above $60.7 will confirm a breakout of the wedge because this wave connects to $63.0 as the equal to target.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil broke higher out of a bullish flag again. The most recent move up came after holding crucial support at $58.1 following last week’s failed breakout of the flag. Today’s close above the $60.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $58.1 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $61.84 was also bullish for the outlook in the coming days. WTI now favors a move above the $61.18 swing high to challenge the $61.7 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $58.1. This is a key objective because $61.7 is also in line with the smaller than target of the wave up from $55.99, the 38 percent retracement from $71.38, the 62 percent retracement from $65.33, and the 100-day moving average. A sustained close above $61.7 will confirm a bullish outlook for at least another couple of weeks.

Should prices turn lower again before overcoming the $61.18 swing high, which would invalidate the current wave down from $61.84, look for initial support at $60.2 and then $59.8. The $59.8 level is expected to hold. Settling below this will indicate that another false breakout of the flag has occurred. In this case, look for another attempt to take out major support at $58.1.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil continues to trade in a range that could prove to be a correction of the rise from $59.97. However, today’s decline has put the near-term odds in favor of Brent testing $63.7 again. This is a key objective for the near-term because it is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $65.95 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $59.97. Settling below $63.7 will call for another test of the 20-day moving average at $63.4 and likely a decline to fulfill the $62.9 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $65.95.

Nevertheless, $63.7 has been resilient support for the past week. Moreover, the $63.38 swing low may form the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline around $66.0. Should Brent continue to hold $63.7 and overcome the $65.0 smaller than target of the wave up from $63.38, look for another test of key near-term resistance at $65.8. Settling above $65.8 will put the odds back in favor of a continued rise above the neckline to challenge $66.5 and likely the $67.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $59.97.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December WTI crude oil is pulling back after testing and holding the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $71.47 and the 62 percent retracement from $65.77 at $62.0 on a closing basis. The move up from $55.96 was due for a correction, and today’s decline completed Friday’s shooting star by settling below last Thursday’s $60.9 midpoint. A daily bearish KCDpeak (overbought signal) was also confirmed, but this could prove to be a bullish signal because it formed so quickly.

That said, the confirmation point of the shooting star, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $55.96, and the equal to (1.00) target of the intraday wave down from $62.59, all around $60.0, held on a closing basis. Therefore, the pullback from $62.59 might prove to be short-lived and is probably forming the corrective leg of a wave up from $55.96.

The outlook for tomorrow is bearish. Prices are already dropping below $60.0 during the post-settlement trading hours. Tests of $59.4 and $58.9, the respective intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the intraday wave down from $62.59, are favored. Settling below $60.0 for a few days will strongly suggest that prices will begin to consolidate. This is the most probable scenario for the near-term. Key support is the 62 percent retracement from $55.96 at $58.5. Settling below $58.5 for a few days will imply that the move up is failing.

Nevertheless, as stated, because $60.0 was held on a closing basis today, there is still a reasonable chance for the move up to extend in the coming days. Settling above key near-term resistance at $62.0 will confirm the pullback from $62.59 is complete, putting the near-term odds in favor of $62.6 and a push to challenge the next major threshold at $63.7.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil continues to hold above the crucial $60.1 level. This is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $75.43, the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $75.43, and the psychologically important $60.0 threshold. This is a prime area for a correction. Friday and Monday’s hammers, an intraday double bottom around $60.1, today’s bullish engulfing line, and a daily KasePO PeakOut (oversold signal) also suggest that a correction should occur before settling below $60.1. Note that the last PeakOut occurred at the $57.88 swing low in early April. While this move up is not expected to be as significant, the confirmation of the PeakOut has shifted the near-term odds in favor of a larger correction in the coming days.

Today’s rise tested and held the $62.1 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $60.07 at $62.1. The subsequent pullback held the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $60.07. Brent crude oil is rising again late this afternoon and is expected to test $62.3 tomorrow. Closing above $62.3 will confirm the daily hammers and open the way for the $62.7 target of the double bottom to be fulfilled. This is also the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $60.07, the equal to target of the wave up from $60.35, and the 89 percent retracement from $63.04. Settling above $62.7, which will also be in line with the trendline down from $69.87 in two days, might be a challenge, but this would call for a test of $63.8 and possibly higher.

Nevertheless, the call for tomorrow remains tight because the downtrend is still firmly intact, and $62.1 was held today. Taking out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $60.07 at $60.9 would warn that the corrective move up is failing and call for another attempt to settle below key support at $60.1. Upon a close below $60.1, the near-term odds will shift back in favor of Brent crude oil falling to $59.3 and likely the next confluence point at $58.5.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil tested and held the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $57.88 at $61.7 on a closing basis today. Even so, the outlook remains bearish because the wave down from $69.87 favors a test of its $60.7 equal to (1.00) target. The waves down from $75.43 and $71.20 call for a continued decline to fulfill the next major target and a probable stalling point at $60.1.

Taking out $61.7 will invalidate the intraday wave up from $61.50 that held its $62.7 equal to target. This will also clear the way for a confluent $61.1 target that makes a connection to $60.1.

The daily KasePO and Stochastic are oversold, and the RSI is nearing oversold territory. There are no bullish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move down to stall, but the oversold momentum oscillators warn that another test of resistance might occur soon. Moreover, for the near-term, the intraday wave up from $61.50 shows potential to extend to $63.1 and possibly $63.4. The $63.4 level is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $64.0. This is in line with the $63.95 swing high, the 50 percent retracement from $66.58, and Friday’s midpoint. Settling above $64.0 would shift the near-term odds in favor of Brent rising to $64.5 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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November WTI crude oil pulled back to test and hold the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $60.40 before rallying. Prices settled below the $61.8 confirmation point of Friday’s inverted hammer but overcame the smaller than (0.618) target of the new primary wave up from $60.40 and the sub-wave up from $60.72. The move up is likely a correction, but the inverted hammer, confirmed daily RSI and MACD divergences, and the wave formation up from $60.40 call for a test of at least $62.4. Overcoming $62.4 will call for a move above the 38 percent retracement from $66.42 at $62.7 to challenge a confluent $63.0 target and possibly higher in the coming days.

The move up from $60.40 has been relatively shallow compared to the decline from $66.42, and as stated, is likely a correction. Currently, taking out $61.1 would call for a test of $60.6, a close below which will strongly suggest that the correction is complete. However, WTI will likely have to take out $60.3, the most confluent threshold on the chart, and a projection of the waves down from $66.42, $63.02, and $62.12 to open the way for $60.0 and lower.

Also note that should $62.4 hold and prices begin to pull back again, a bearish flag will form. Therefore, breaking through $62.4 will be crucial in proving that the move up from $60.40 is more than a short-lived correction.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rallied and broke higher out of a bullish pennant today. Prices also settled above the $65.3 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $61.29, the 50 percent retracement from $69.36, and the 200-day moving average. WTI crude oil is now poised to challenge the 62 percent retracement from $69.36 and the 38 percent retracement from $74.25 at $66.2. This is an important target that could prove to be a stalling point. However, odds favor an eventual rise above $66.2 to challenge the $66.8 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $61.29. This is also the highest that the first wave up from $61.29 projects. Settling above $66.8 will confirm a bullish outlook.

There is no substantial technical evidence that suggests the move up will stall before testing at least $66.2. Even so, as stated, $66.2 is a potential stalling point. Also, it is fairly common to see a pullback to test the breakout point of a pattern after a break higher. Should price fall within the next day or so $65.1 should hold. Falling below this will call for a test of $64.7 and possibly key near-term support at $64.0. Settling below $64.0 would signal that today’s break higher out of the pennant was a false breakout. In this case, the near-term odds would shift in favor of challenging $63.1 and lower.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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November Brent crude oil held the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $71.93 and the 200-day moving average on a closing basis on Monday. Today’s decline retraced nearly 50 percent of the rise from $64.54 and has put prices back below the 20- and 50-day moving averages. This suggests that the corrective move up from $64.54 is complete.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $66.1. Settling below this will call for another attempt to take out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from 57.81 and the 100-day moving average at $64.9. Closing below $64.9 will clear the way for another test of the $64.6 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $76.39. This is a bearish decision point because settling below $64.6 for a few days would open the way for an eventual test of this wave’s $60.0 equal to (1.00) target and break the bottom trend line of a large flat descending triangle around $64.5.

That said, the move up from $64.54 stalled short of the upper trend line of the flat descending triangle pattern. Should prices rally again and close above $68.6, look for a break higher out of the pattern to challenge the $69.1 smaller than target of the wave up from $64.5. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $71.93. The wave up from $64.5 connects to $72.0 as the equal to target.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil held below the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $70.51 and settled back below the 100-day moving average today. The move down is poised to challenge $62.8 again. This is an area where a double bottom may have formed. The $62.8 objective is also in line with the $62.83 and $62.81 swing highs of a range that prices traded in between early April and late May. However, based on the recent intraday waves down from $64.48 and $64.44, WTI crude oil favors a test of $62.4. This is a longer-term bearish decision point because $62.4 is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.01 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $75.98. This wave connects to $57.4 as the equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, a sustained close below $62.4 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, given the confluence and importance of both the $62.8 and $62.4 targets, sustaining a close below $62.4 will likely be a challenge without a test of resistance first. The daily Stochastic is oversold, and the move down from $70.51 is due for a correction. Should prices rise above $63.9, look for a test of $64.4. Settling above this will call for a push to challenge $65.0 and possibly $65.6 before the move down extends. Settling above $65.6 is doubtful but would reflect a bullish shift in sentiment.