Kase Market Commentary
Samples of Kase’s energy and metals price forecasts, daily updates, market commentary, and educational perspectives on technical analysis and trading — published by Dean Rogers, CMT.
Samples of Kase’s energy and metals price forecasts, daily updates, market commentary, and educational perspectives on technical analysis and trading — published by Dean Rogers, CMT.
WTI crude oil overcame key technical levels today and confirmed a bullish reversal and trend. The move up is now poised to test $81.4 and likely a longer-term bullish decision point at $82.4 within the next day or so.
Gold is poised to take out the $2308.7 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 a few weeks ago. Tomorrow, look for a test of $2296, a close below which will open the way for a highly confluent target at $2261.
The outlook for natural gas in the coming weeks is bullish. However, a double top at $3.16 and today’s dark cloud cover indicate a deeper test of support will likely occur before the move extends.
The outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish after settling above a key technical level at $77.6. However, today’s lackluster move up warns that a test of support might take place first. Support at $76.5 is expected to hold and $75.4 is key support for the near term.
Gold confirmed a small $2335 double bottom and settled above an important retracement of the move down from $2477 today. These factors warn that the move down will fail to confirm a double top that had formed around $2474. They also suggest that gold is readopting a firm bullish outlook.
Natural gas may be consolidating into a range after testing and holding major support at $2.52 late last week. Trading has been indecisive for the past few days. Even so, based on today’s move up, near-term odds favor a test of at least $2.84 and likely $2.88.
WTI crude oil has sustained a close below a bearish decision point at $75.8 for the past two days. The move down is due for a test of resistance, but any move up will likely be a correction. Technical factors call for continued decline; the next major objective is $70.4.
Gold is struggling to take out $2346 support. Today’s doji dampens the odds of a continued decline. However, bearish weekly and daily reversal patterns and signals indicate a deeper test of support is still favored.
July natural gas settled below the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.128, indicating the move down is more than a simple profit-taking correction. Settling below $2.64 will call for at least $2.56 possibly a test of support around $2.50 in the coming days.
WTI crude oil is poised to break out of the recent trading range and confirm a double bottom by setting above $80.11. Tomorrow, look for a test of $81.1, a close above which will call for another key target at $82.3 to be challenged in the coming days.