Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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September Brent crude oil broke higher out of the recent trading range by settling above $70.0 today. The rise during the past two days reflects an increase in bullish sentiment. The move up is now poised to fulfill the $72.1 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $65.06. This is a potential stalling point, but any pullback will likely be a correction and should hold $70.6. Settling above $72.1 will clear the way for a test of $72.5, the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.73 at $72.9, and then the $74.2 intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $65.06 in the coming days.
There are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall after today’s break higher. Even so, $72.1 is a confluent target and, as stated, a potential stalling point. A correction is expected to hold today’s $70.6 midpoint and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $65.06. Falling below this would call for a test of key near-term support at $69.4. This threshold is in line with today’s open, the 38 percent retracement, and the 200-day moving average. Closing below $69.4 will warn that the move up is failing and call for tests of the 50 and 62 percent retracement levels at $68.5 and $67.7, respectively.
