WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast
The long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. The move up is poised to eventually reach $41.8 where it will attempt to fill the July contract’s March 7 gap down from $41.88. However, WTI has desperately been due for a significant correction. Based on this afternoon’s price action, there is still a good chance for a larger test of support during the next couple of days.
There is little doubt that the move down from $40.44 is corrective. Today’s close above the 62 percent retracement of the decline to $34.36 is positive for the near-term outlook. Even so, today’s move up stalled just below the $39.1 target as called for in yesterday’s update. Also, the wave formation down from $39.06 calls for a test of $37.3 and likely $36.3 before a new high is made. Falling below $36.3 will call for $35.3, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $40.44. A close below $35.3 would call for $33.0 and possibly lower.
Should WTI overcome $39.2, look for a test of what has become key near-term resistance at $40.1. Settling above this will shift near-term odds in favor of making the push to $41.8 sooner rather than later.
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast
Brent crude oil settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $43.33. This strongly suggests that the recent move down is corrective and that a new high will likely be made soon. However, today’s move up stalled just above the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $37.01. Therefore, a test of $40.0, likely $39.3, and possibly $38.6 is expected before a new high is made. Settling below $38.6 will call for key support at $37.6, a close below which would call for a much more substantial downward correction before the move up ultimately continues.
For tomorrow, resistance at $41.7 is expected to hold and $42.6 is key. Settling above $42.6 will open the way for $43.5 and higher.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
