Natural Gas Price Forecast – July 22, 2020

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas rallied again today after falling to $1.622 in early trading hours. The subsequent move up met the $1.698 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1.605. This wave is now poised to reach its $1.73 intermediate (1.382) target tomorrow. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $1.924 and is in line with the 21-day moving average. Closing above $1.73 would imply that support around $1.60 will continue to hold and that prices are settling into a wide trading range between nominally $1.60 and $1.86 for the interim.

Natural Gas – $0.02 KaseBar Chart

Nevertheless, the move up may still be corrective, and until at least $1.73 is overcome there is still a reasonable chance for the move down to extend. For now, though, support at $1.64, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.605, is expected to hold. Falling below this will call for another attempt at $1.59. Settling below $1.59 would confirm a break below the critical $1.60 level and shift near-term odds in favor of $1.51 and possibly lower before the August contract expires on July 29.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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