Natural Gas Price Forecast – February 5, 2020

The long-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish and the recent move up from $1.804 is most likely corrective. However, Tuesday’s confirmed daily bullish RSI divergence and the wave up from $1.804 call for a larger test of resistance before the decline continues.

Today, natural gas stalled just below $1.84 support and the subsequent move up most likely forms the impulse leg of the primary wave up from $1.804. The $1.88 smaller than (0.618) target of this wave has nearly been met this afternoon and the equal to (1.00) target is $1.91. Settling above $1.91 will call for key near-term resistance at $1.96, a close above which will clear the way for a larger upward correction to $2.00 and higher.

Support at $1.83 is crucial because a move below this would take out the $1.825 intra-day swing low and invalidate the wave up from $1.804 that projects to $1.91 and higher. In turn, this would shift near-term odds back in favor of $1.79 and lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers

Dean Rogers is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer, but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award winning weekly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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