Natural Gas Forecast: Correction Poised to Extend

By Dean Rogers

The highly anticipated natural gas correction is underway. The wave $1.611 – 1.74 – 1.687 overcame its $1.758 0.618 projection Wednesday morning. The correction should extend to at least $1.81, the 1.00 projection. A close over $1.758 would have increased odds for $1.81. Nonetheless, as long as the $1.687 swing low holds on a closing basis the move up should extend.

NGJ6 20160309

$1.81 connects to $1.86 as the 1.382 projection and 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.223 to $1.611. $1.86 is a potential stalling point due to its confluence. A close over $1.86 would call for $1.91, the 1.618 projection and 50 percent retracement.

NGJ6 Table 20160309

Key resistance is $2.00, the 62 percent retracement. As discussed in the weekly commentary, we doubt prices will overcome $2.00 without a bullish shift in underlying fundamentals.

Key support is $1.68 because it is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1.611 and in line with the $1.687 swing low. A close below this would indicate the upward correction may be complete and would significantly dampen odds for $1.81 and higher.

This is a brief natural gas forecast for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough analysis. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

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Dean Rogers

Dean Rogers is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer, but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award winning weekly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase’s classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase’s hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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