WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil leans bullish headed into tomorrow. Today’s early decline to $63.68 negated the double bottom that formed around $63.9 yesterday. However, the subsequent move up from $63.68 formed a wave that overcame its smaller than (0.618) target and is poised to reach $65.9. Such a move will overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $66.76, fulfill the smaller than target of the compound wave up from $62.9, and most importantly, overcome the $65.75 intraday swing high, thus invalidating the primary wave down from $66.76. Overcoming $65.9 will also increase odds for a test of the $66.76 swing high, which then connects to a crucial target at $67.7.

Nevertheless, the near-term call remains tight. This is because while the $65.75 swing high holds there is still a reasonable chance for the primary wave down from $66.76 to extend. This wave has already taken out its smaller than target and projects to $63.0 as the equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, should $65.75 hold, and WTI falls below $64.1 to invalidate the wave up from $63.68, look for a test of $63.0. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $57.29. A “normal” correction should hold $63.0. Closing below this would reflect a stronger bearish shift in near-term sentiment and call for a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil remains bullish after overcoming the $65.47 swing high and challenging the $65.7 target today. This is a potential stalling point because $65.7 is the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $57.29, the XC (2.764) projection of a subwave up from $60.61, and is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of a compound wave up from $60.61. Furthermore, a small intraday double top might be forming around $65.8.

Nevertheless, any move down will most likely prove to be a short-lived correction. Moreover, a move above $65.84 early tomorrow will negate the potential double top and call for at least $66.7 and possibly the next major objective at $67.7 during the next day or so. The $67.7 objective is the most confluent target on the chart and is crucial because it ties the waves up from $57.29 to the wave structure before the $67.29 swing high. Settling above $67.7 will clear the way for $69.1 and $70.1.

With that said, should WTI take out the $64.96 swing low first, the potential $65.8 double top would be confirmed. This would then call for a test of $64.2, which is in line with the pattern’s target, today’s open, and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $57.29. Support at $64.2 is expected to hold, but a close below this will call for a test of key near-term support at $62.6. Settling below $62.6 is doubtful but would reflect a bearish shift in near-term sentiment.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil broke higher out of an intra-day coil pattern and settled above the $62.43 swing high. This confirmed the double bottom between the $60.61 and $60.66 swing lows that formed Monday. The move up is now positioned to challenge a bullish decision point at $63.5 early tomorrow. This is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $60.61, the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $64.38, and most importantly, the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $67.29.  Closing above $63.5 would imply that the corrective move down from $67.29 is complete, clearing the way for a test of the double bottom’s $64.2 target. This then connects to $64.9 and higher.

Nevertheless, when WTI rose to $64.38 just over a week ago $63.5 held on a closing basis. This has been a strong level of resistance and is still a highly confluent wave projection and retracement. Should WTI hold $63.5 look for a test of $62.3 and possibly $61.7. Support at $61.7 is expected to hold. Closing below this would reflect a bearish shift in near-term sentiment and call for a test of $59.8 and possibly lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil is working its way toward the top of the trading range that prices have been oscillating in during the past few weeks. The outlook remains tight, and the range still looks corrective of the decline from $67.79. Nevertheless, near-term odds favor a test of $61.4. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $57.63. Settling above $61.4 will call for $62.5, which then connects to a bullish decision point at $63.8. Settling above $63.8 would imply that the move down from $67.79 is complete and clear the way for $65.6 and higher.

With that said, caution is warranted because the move up has not been able to overcome the $60.90 intra-day swing high during the last few days. Moreover, during the past few weeks each time WTI looks poised to break higher or lower out of the range the move has stalled and reversed course. Therefore, should WTI crude oil take out $59.1 tomorrow look for a test of $58.0, which then connects to a highly confluent support level at $57.0. Settling below $57.0 would call for a test of a bearish decision point at $55.7.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil continues to trade in an indecisive trading range. Today’s initial move up fulfilled the $60.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $57.25. This was bullish, but the move stalled and the pullback from $60.9 suggests another test of support will probably take place tomorrow. This is a tight call, but near-term odds lean in favor of $58.4, a move below which will call for $57.2. Settling below $57.2 will cause a break lower out of the trading range and call for a test of a bearish decision point at $55.7 that connects to $51.7 and lower.

With that said, fulfilling the $60.7 smaller than target of the primary wave up from $57.25 implies that while the $57.63 swing low holds this wave still has good potential to extend to its $62.5 equal to (1.00) target. The connection to $62.5 is made through $61.2, the smaller than target of the wave up from $57.63. Closing above $62.5 would shift near-term odds in favor of testing the $63.8 bullish decision point. Closing above this would strongly suggest that the corrective move down is complete and clear the way for the uptrend to extend to new highs in the coming weeks.

The primary takeaway is not the direction of the call but rather the implications of either a close below $61.2 or above $62.5. Everything else that happens between those levels will likely be noise. Closing beyond either threshold would then call for a test of the longer-term bearish or bullish decision points at $55.7 or $63.8, respectively.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil briefly overcame the $62.04 swing high and invalidated the prior primary wave down from $67.79. However, the move up stalled and a bearish intra-day head and shoulders pattern has formed. The wave down from $62.27 that forms the pattern’s right shoulder is poised to challenge its $59.8 smaller than (0.618) target tomorrow. This is in line with the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. Closing below $59.8 will call for $59.0 and possibly $57.6, the lower of which is near the target of the head and shoulders. Settling below $57.6 might be a challenge ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later this week but would clear the way for a test of the $55.7 smaller than target of the newly formed primary wave down from $67.79. The $55.7 objective has become a bearish decision point because a sustained close below this will call for a decline toward the primary wave’s $51.7 target.

With that said, trading is expected to be erratic for at least another few days. During the past eight trading sessions each time the market looks like it will fall it rises, and vice versa. Therefore, caution is warranted.

Should WTI crude oil hold $59.8 and overcome $61.6 early tomorrow, the head and shoulders pattern will likely fail (it could still transmute into a complex head and shoulders provided $61.6 holds). In this case, look for a test of $62.7 and possibly $63.9. The $63.9 level is a bullish decision point because this is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $67.79 and is near the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $57.25. Settling above $63.9 would imply the corrective move down is complete and open the way for $64.6 and likely higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI remains bearish. Originally, it looked as though the move down from $67.79 was unfolding as a five-wave pattern that targets $54.9 or, more likely, $53.7. However, Waves I and III lack clear five-subwave counts. This does not negate the possibility of a five-wave move, but it does imply that the decline might be a three-wave extension that targets $52.5 instead. Nonetheless, in either case, the wave count, whether five- or three-waves, calls for the decline to continue toward targets in the low $50s.

As a five-wave move, $57.0 is crucial because this is the smaller than (0.618) target of Wave III and connects to $53.7 as the equal to (1.00) target. The $53.7 objective is also the XC (2.764) target of Wave I and the lowest that this wave projects. The trend terminus for Wave I is $54.9, but $53.7 makes more sense for the five-wave move because falling to $53.7 would makes Waves III and V equal. This also means that $53.7 would be the most probable stalling point for a five-wave pattern. Therefore, once $53.7 is met, a three-wave correction, or more, would be expected.

As a three-wave extension, the decline from $67.79 targets $56.3 as the smaller than target and then connects to $52.5 as the equal to target. Therefore, a three-wave extension is a bit more bearish for the near-term outlook than a five-wave pattern.

Tomorrow’s early action should shed more light on the wave count. Currently, it looks like the decline is more likely a three-wave extension because the subwave down from $62.04 has taken out its smaller than target and calls for a test of its $56.3 equal to target. However, should $57.0 hold and a decent retracement takes place (along the lines of $1.50 to match the retracement from $58.47 to $59.98), the decline is probably a five-wave trend. Again, either way, there is a good chance for WTI to fall and fulfill targets in the low $50s in the coming days.

Regarding near-term resistance, look for $58.4 to likely hold. Key near-term resistance is today’s $59.5 midpoint. Settling above this will dampen near-term odds for a continued decline and call for a test of $60.2 and possibly today’s $61.3 open before the decline continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil tightened again today. The decline to $63.8 tested the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $63.13. More importantly, the move down took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the first subwave down from $66.4. This wave favors a test of its $63.4 equal to (1.00) target, which is also the smaller than target of the primary wave down from $67.98. Falling below $64.3 early tomorrow will call for a test of $63.4, a close below which will clear the way for $62.5 and likely $61.6. Such a move could prove to be significantly bearish for the outlook in the coming weeks because falling below $63.4 will call for a move below the 20-day moving average. Since early November this is a threshold that has been tested and held on a closing basis several times. Therefore, closing below the 20-day moving average, which should be just below $63.4 tomorrow, would likely trigger a much more significant and long overdue test of support.

With that said, the long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is undeniably bullish, and bearish setups like this have failed repeatedly during the past several weeks. Moreover, this is an extremely tight call for the next few days because the small intra-day double bottom that formed at $63.8 was confirmed by the close above the $64.67 intra-day swing high. The exact target for the double bottom is the $65.54 swing high. Overcoming $65.54 would invalidate the first subwave down from $66.4 that projects to $63.4 and clear the way for a test of $65.8 instead. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $63.13 and connects to $67.0 and higher.

In summary, the next substantial move for WTI crude oil will likely be determined by either a close below $63.4 or above $65.8. As of this afternoon, odds lean slightly in favor of at least a test of $63.4. A move below $64.3 early tomorrow will increase those odds. However, should WTI overcome $65.54 first, odds will shift in favor of testing $65.8 instead.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil settled below $64.2 and confirmed Monday’s bearish dark cloud cover pattern. Furthermore, the primary wave down from $67.98 and subwave down from $65.98 have taken out their smaller than (0.618) targets around $63.8. Therefore, the pullback from $67.98 is poised to reach at least $63.1 and likely $62.5 tomorrow. The $62.5 target is most confluent and is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $59.24. This could prove to be a stalling point. However, a close below $62.5 will call for a test key support at $61.4.

The $61.4 target is currently most important because it is in line with the 20-day moving average. Since early November, the 20-day moving average has been tested and held on a closing basis each time WTI was poised for a bearish reversal. Therefore, closing below $61.4 will signal that a much more significant test of support is finally underway.

With that said, during the past several weeks, tests of support such as the one currently underway have failed. Therefore, it will not be surprising to see the move down stall again and rally during the latter half of the week. There is not much that calls for this before reaching $62.5, but caution is warranted. For now, though, resistance at $65.4 is expected to hold and $66.4 is key. Settling above $66.4 would imply that the move down has failed again and clear the way for $67.5 and then a push toward $69.2.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil challenged $59.5 as called for in yesterday’s daily update. The decline initially stalled at $59.45 and then rose to $61.21 before settling into a coil pattern. However, WTI broke lower out of the coil just before the settlement and has fallen to $59.38 in the post-settlement trading hours. This is significant because WTI is now trading right around the 20-day moving average. This is a level that has held on a closing basis since early November. A sustained close below the 20-day moving average will strongly imply that a significant test of support is finally underway.

Tomorrow, look for WTI to challenge $58.7. This is a bearish decision point because it is now below the 20-day moving average and is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the initial wave down from $63.81 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the newly formed primary wave down from $63.81. It is also in line with the daily bearish threshold of the Kase Trend indicator. Closing below $58.7 will call for $57.9, likely $56.9, and possibly lower during the next few days. Such a move would also be a strong indication that a major test of support is underway.

With that said, this is a week in which external factors could reinvigorate bullish sentiment. Even so, based on the way the charts and technical factors have played out during the last few days, it looks as though the market is pricing in expectations of bearish supply/demand news.

Nevertheless, should WTI crude oil rally early tomorrow look for immediate resistance at $60.3 and then crucial near-term resistance at $61.2. Rising above $61.2 will invalidate the primary wave down from $63.81 that projects to $58.7 and lower. This would also call for a test of key resistance at $62.1. Settling above this would imply that the move down has been another short-lived correction and clear the way for $62.9 likely $63.9.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.