Gold and Silver Price Forecast – May 28, 2020

Gold Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish. However, the near-term outlook calls for a larger test of support before the move up continues.

During the last few days, gold prices have fallen back into the range of a bullish coil that prices had broken higher out of on May 14. Yesterday, gold tested and held the lower trend line of the pattern and today the upper trend line. This afternoon’s decline from the upper trend line formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick, which is negative for the outlook during the next few days.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

The primary wave down from $1788.8 has taken out its smaller than (0.618) target. Most waves that take out the smaller than target extend to the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $1653. Therefore, near-term odds favor a larger downward correction where $1653 is the key objective. Tomorrow, look for at least $1697 and possibly $1681. Closing below $1681 will significantly increase odds for $1653. Nonetheless, at this point, the move down is most likely corrective and $1653 is expected to hold.

Conversely, should gold overcome $1741, the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1755.8, near-term odds will shift in favor of $1752, which then connects to $1775 and eventually $1796.

Silver Price Forecast

July silver is working its way back toward the $18.165 swing high and overcame the $18.08 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $17.19 today. Ultimately, silver is expected to reach $19.55, the equal to target of the primary wave up from $11.68. The connection to $19.55 is made through $18.40 and then $18.60. Rising to $19.55 will likely take at least another few weeks.

Silver – Daily Chart

Nonetheless, because the $18.08 target held on a closing basis today, a small test of support might take place first. Support at $17.52 is expected to hold. Closing below this will call for a test of $17.14. Settling below $17.14 is doubtful and would reflect a bearish shift in near-term sentiment. This would also open the way for a much more substantial test of support before the move up continues toward $19.55 as expected.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

Gold fell below the upper trend line of the bullish coil that prices broke out of on May 14. The pullback from $1755.8 is most likely corrective but is poised to extend to $1704 ahead of the holiday weekend. This is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $1775.8, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $1788.8, and the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1666.2.

The confluence and importance of targets around $1704 make it a decision point for a bearish near-term outlook. For the move up to continue during the next few days $1704 must hold.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

Closing below $1704 will call for $1679 and likely $1653. Support at $1653 is expected to hold.

Should $1704 hold, look for initial resistance at $1738 and key near-term resistance at $1753. Settling above $1753 will shift near-term odds back in favor of $1777, which then connects to $1799 and the next major objective at $1821.

Silver Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for silver is bullish. However, the recent move up stalled at the XC (2.764) projection of the primary wave up from $14.715. This is the highest this wave projects. The subsequent move down formed a bearish engulfing line and confirmed an evening star today. This strongly implies that a deeper correction will take place during the next day or so before the move up continues.

Based on the intra-day waves down from $18.165, look for a test of at least $17.13 and possibly $16.91 before the move up continues. The $16.91 objective is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave down from $18.165 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $14.715. For the move up to continue during the next few days $16.91 must hold. Closing below this would call for $16.39 and possibly $16.03 before silver rallies again.

Silver – Daily Chart

Should silver turn higher before taking out $17.13 support, look for initial resistance at $17.82 and key resistance at $18.08. Settling above $18.08 would shift near-term odds back in favor of rising toward the next major objective at $19.54 with interposed targets at $18.42 and $18.74.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold broke higher out of a coil pattern and settled the day above $1737, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1666.2. The move up is now poised to reach at least $1752 and likely $1774 during the next few days. Settling above $1774 will clear the way a new high of $1802 and then the next major objective of $1821.

Prices are still flirting with the coil’s upper trend line, so there is a modest chance for another test of support once $1752 is met. Support at $1720 will likely hold, but a decline to $1702 and even $1690 would still be considered corrective of the move up from $1676.0. Settling below $1690 is unlikely but would shift near-term odds in favor of $1658 and possibly lower.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

Gold’s formation of a bullish engulfing line today strongly suggests that the primary wave down from $1788.8 may fail to meet its $1642 equal to (1.00) target as previously expected. Instead, prices are poised to rise and challenge at least $1752, which then connects to $1764. Overcoming $1764 would call for a move above the $1764.2 swing high. This would invalidate the wave down from $1788.8 and clear the way for $1797 and higher.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, the 62 percent retracement of the move down from $1764.2 held today, and the move up from $1683.0 lacks a definitive wave restructure. Therefore, a test of $1710 support might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Key support for the near-term is $1697. Settling below $1697 would shift near-term odds back in favor of a move toward $1642.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The June gold contract stalled just below the $1741 target discussed in yesterday’s update before falling and taking out the $1704.1 swing low. The move down held key support at $1688. However, this is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $1788.8. Therefore, meeting $1688 implies that a larger downward correction will take place before prices rise to a new high. The next major objective is the $1641 equal to (1.00) target with interposed objectives at $1677 and $1654.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

The $1688 target is a potential temporary stalling point. Should a test of resistance take place early tomorrow look for $1717 to hold. Key resistance and the barrier for a resumed near-term bullish outlook is $1735. Settling above $1735 would call for prices to rise above the $1737 swing high, negating the wave down from $1764.2 that makes the connection to $1641 through $1677 and $1654.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The outlook for gold is bullish and the move up is poised to extend to the next major objective at $1798. However, the wave formation up from $1666.2 is due for a pullback. Therefore, a test of support is expected before $1798 is overcome on a sustained closing basis.

Gold held important support around $1665 on Tuesday and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1788.8 today. This implies that the outlook remains bullish and rising above $1771 early tomorrow will clear the way for $1798. The $1798 objective is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1576.0 and the highest the primary wave up from $1666.2 projects. As stated, a test of support is expected before $1798 is overcome. Nonetheless, closing above $1798 will clear the way for $1821, the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $1453.0.

Gold – $20 Kase Bar Chart

Prices fell a bit from the $1764.2 swing high at the end of the day. The wave formation up from $1666.2 is a bit extended, which suggests a test of support might take place first. Initial support at $1723 is expected to hold. Closing below this will delay the move to $1798 and would call for key support at $1688. Closing below $1688 is doubtful but would call for another attempt at $1665 and likely $1644 before the move up extends to a new high.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The long-term outlook for gold is bullish and prices are still poised to eventually challenge targets above $1800. However, confluent resistance was met around the $1788.8 high, at which point a daily evening star reversal pattern and several bearish divergences formed. In addition, the intra-day wave down from $1788.8 fulfilled its smaller than (0.618) at today’s $1722.0 swing low. This implies that after a brief upward correction gold should fall to $1696 before the move up eventually continues. Support at $1676 is expected to hold, though a close below this would call for a more substantial test of support before prices rally again.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

For now, resistance at $1748 is expected to hold and $1764 is key. Settling above $1764 would call for a move above the $1768 swing high. This would invalidate the wave down from $1788.8 that projects to $1696 and lower. This would also clear the way for the move up to extend to $1782 and likely $1796, the last threshold protecting $1800.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

There is little doubt that gold’s decline from $1742.6 is corrective of the larger scale move up. So far, prices have fallen to $1670.7 but have not been able to close below $1679. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $1742.6 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1576.0. Nonetheless, there is still a good chance for the correction to extend to $1660 first, especially upon a move below $1670 early tomorrow. The $1660 objective is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $1742.6 and the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1576.0. Support at $1660 is expected to hold. Closing below this would call for a test of key near-term support at $1639.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

The corrective move down will likely be short-lived, and once $1660 is met odds for a move back up will increase substantially. There is also a reasonable chance that the move down has already stalled and that prices will press higher before reaching $1660. Should gold overcome $1698 first look for a test of $1716. Settling above $1716 would strongly imply the corrective move down is over and would clear the way for $1479 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied today as expected and overcame the $1623 target discussed in yesterday’s update. The move up is now poised to reach $1651. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1698.0. A close above $1651 would strongly suggest the move down is over. Closing above $1685, the 89 percent retracement and highest the wave up from $1576.0 projects, would confirm the move down is over and clear the way for $1707 and higher.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

The move down from $1698.0 is forming a bullish flag that will have broken higher upon a close over $1651. Nonetheless, the move up from $1576 is due for a pullback soon, so there is a reasonable chance for a test of support before $1651 is overcome and almost certainly before gold settles above $1685.

Any move down will most likely be corrective and is expected to hold $1616. Key near-term support is $1601, a close below which would call for $1582 and possibly $1567, the latter if which is in line with the flag’s lower trend line.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.