Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Natural gas rose to challenge a highly confluent and key objective at $3.58 again today. Most importantly, this is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.990. Settling above $3.58 will confirm a bullish shift in sentiment and open the way for a test of this wave’s $3.74 intermediate (1.382) target. Tomorrow, look for a test of $3.61. Settling above this will call for $3.64 and $3.69, which then make a connection to the $3.74 objective.
That said, the challenge for tomorrow’s outlook is that natural gas is struggling to settle above $3.58. Moreover, there is potential for a small double top at $3.58 which would be confirmed below $3.46. Taking out $3.50 would call for a test of $3.46, a close below which will shift the near-term odds in favor of natural gas falling to $3.42 and then the $3.36 target of the potential double top.
