Natural Gas Price Forecast – April 7, 2021

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas retains a firm bearish outlook even after today’s somewhat surprising bounce. The move up stalled near the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.688 and could not overcome the $2.568 intra-day swing high. This suggests the move up is another correction after breaking lower out of the bearish flag pattern Monday. The move down is poised to challenge $2.46 again, a close below which will call for the next major objective and a potential stalling point at $2.40. Nevertheless, as stated in yesterday’s daily update, an eventual close below $2.40 is expected, which will clear the way for $2.33 and lower.

With that said, today’s move up dampens near-term odds for a continued decline during the next few days. Moreover, should natural gas overcome today’s $2.546 high early tomorrow look for a test of $2.59. This has become a highly confluent resistance level and is in line with the breakout point of the flag. It is common to see a pullback to challenge the breakout point of this type of pattern. Closing above $2.59 is doubtful, but such a move would reflect a bullish shift in near-term sentiment and call for $2.64 and possibly a move back toward crucial upper resistance at $2.69 again.

Natural Gas - $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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