Natural Gas Price Forecast – April 15, 2020

The outlook for natural gas is firmly bearish and today’s nominal close below $1.60 clears the way for a test of $1.54 and possibly $1.50. These are the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the primary wave down from $1.918, respectively. The sub-waves down from $1.813 also show that these two objectives are highly confluent. Therefore, a test of resistance is expected before natural gas settles below $1.50.

Natural Gas – $0.025 Kase Bar

Based on the wave structure and bearish sentiment, natural gas should fall to at least $1.54 before another reasonable test of resistance. Nonetheless, should prices rise sooner, look for initial resistance at $1.63 and then $1.67. The latter is expected to hold. Key near-term resistance is $1.73. Settling above $1.73 would call for a larger upward correction to $1.79 and possibly higher. This would also suggest that prices may settle into a trading range before falling to challenge major support around $1.50.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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