Gold Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for gold is bullish and $1820 is the next major objective. However, gold is stuck in a trading range and the lower trend line of the range was broken yesterday. Also, the recent decline below the smaller than (0.618) targets of the primary waves down from $1789.0 and $1787.5 suggests a test of the lower end of the range around $1670 might take place before a break higher.

Nevertheless, today’s settle above Wednesday’s midpoint and the formation of a bullish piercing pattern on the daily chart call for a test of at least $1740 and possibly $1751 first. Resistance at $1751 is expected to hold. Rising above this would call for key resistance at $1690 to be challenged. Settling above $1690 would shift near-term odds back in favor of $1780, which then makes a connection to targets above the upper trend line of the trading range.

In summary, technical analysis factors are mixed. The long-term outlook is bullish, near-term odds favor a test of $1670 before breaking higher out of the trading range, and a test of at least $1739 should take place first. This implies that trading will continue to be extremely choppy during the next few days and possibly for another few weeks.

Silver Price Forecast

Silver’s recent decline from the $18.950 swing high is most likely corrective. However, a daily bearish engulfing line and confirmed bearish KaseCD, MACD, and RSI divergences call for a deeper test of support before the move up continues to the next major objective of $19.54.

Tomorrow, look for a test of at least $17.65, which then connects to $17.33. Support at $17.33 is the most confluent objective on the chart and is expected to hold. Closing below this would call for a much more significant test of support before the move up continues.

Nonetheless, today’s formation of a doji dampens odds for a larger correction. Should silver rise above $18.17 look for a test of $18.43. The latter is the doji’s confirmation point, a close above which would call for key resistance at $18.78. Settling above $18.78 would indicate the corrective move down is over and clear the way for the push toward $19.54.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish. However, the near-term outlook calls for a larger test of support before the move up continues.

During the last few days, gold prices have fallen back into the range of a bullish coil that prices had broken higher out of on May 14. Yesterday, gold tested and held the lower trend line of the pattern and today the upper trend line. This afternoon’s decline from the upper trend line formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick, which is negative for the outlook during the next few days.

The primary wave down from $1788.8 has taken out its smaller than (0.618) target. Most waves that take out the smaller than target extend to the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $1653. Therefore, near-term odds favor a larger downward correction where $1653 is the key objective. Tomorrow, look for at least $1697 and possibly $1681. Closing below $1681 will significantly increase odds for $1653. Nonetheless, at this point, the move down is most likely corrective and $1653 is expected to hold.

Conversely, should gold overcome $1741, the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1755.8, near-term odds will shift in favor of $1752, which then connects to $1775 and eventually $1796.

Silver Price Forecast

July silver is working its way back toward the $18.165 swing high and overcame the $18.08 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $17.19 today. Ultimately, silver is expected to reach $19.55, the equal to target of the primary wave up from $11.68. The connection to $19.55 is made through $18.40 and then $18.60. Rising to $19.55 will likely take at least another few weeks.

Nonetheless, because the $18.08 target held on a closing basis today, a small test of support might take place first. Support at $17.52 is expected to hold. Closing below this will call for a test of $17.14. Settling below $17.14 is doubtful and would reflect a bearish shift in near-term sentiment. This would also open the way for a much more substantial test of support before the move up continues toward $19.55 as expected.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

Gold fell below the upper trend line of the bullish coil that prices broke out of on May 14. The pullback from $1755.8 is most likely corrective but is poised to extend to $1704 ahead of the holiday weekend. This is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $1775.8, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $1788.8, and the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1666.2.

The confluence and importance of targets around $1704 make it a decision point for a bearish near-term outlook. For the move up to continue during the next few days $1704 must hold.

Closing below $1704 will call for $1679 and likely $1653. Support at $1653 is expected to hold.

Should $1704 hold, look for initial resistance at $1738 and key near-term resistance at $1753. Settling above $1753 will shift near-term odds back in favor of $1777, which then connects to $1799 and the next major objective at $1821.

Silver Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for silver is bullish. However, the recent move up stalled at the XC (2.764) projection of the primary wave up from $14.715. This is the highest this wave projects. The subsequent move down formed a bearish engulfing line and confirmed an evening star today. This strongly implies that a deeper correction will take place during the next day or so before the move up continues.

Based on the intra-day waves down from $18.165, look for a test of at least $17.13 and possibly $16.91 before the move up continues. The $16.91 objective is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave down from $18.165 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $14.715. For the move up to continue during the next few days $16.91 must hold. Closing below this would call for $16.39 and possibly $16.03 before silver rallies again.

Should silver turn higher before taking out $17.13 support, look for initial resistance at $17.82 and key resistance at $18.08. Settling above $18.08 would shift near-term odds back in favor of rising toward the next major objective at $19.54 with interposed targets at $18.42 and $18.74.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.