Reading a Kase Report in Five Minutes
The short version. One real report section, five things to read in it, and the three mistakes that trip people up. Everything here links through to the full guide if you want the reasoning behind it.
Kase and Company, Inc. — Independent. Specialized. Statistically Grounded. Since 1992.
The idea, in four sentences
A Kase forecast is not a single prediction. For each market it publishes eight price levels — four above the market and four below — each one chosen because several independent pieces of market structure agree on it, and each carrying its own odds.
The levels on one side map the primary scenario, which is the direction the trend is pointing. The levels on the other side map the secondary scenario, which is what happens if the market goes the other way instead. Between them sits the invalidation — the price at which the second scenario takes over from the first.
If you remember one thing
Both directions are mapped, in advance, with odds on every level. When the market goes against the call, the report has already told you where it is likely to go and what each level means. Nothing is thrown away.
Five things to read, in order
Below is one complete instrument section, reproduced from the natural gas weekly of August 14, 2026. Every report is built from these same parts. Read them in the order numbered underneath.
Close 2.733 Tolerance ±0.012 Primary 2.63 Invalidation 2.90
| Natural Gas (NGU26) | Support | Close | Resistance | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | 2.46 | 2.50 | 2.54 | 2.63 | 2.733 | 2.77 | 2.80 | 2.85 | 2.90 |
| PRIMARY | INVALIDATION | ||||||||
| Meet / Close | 6/3 | 11/5 | 18/11 | 49/32 | 84/59 | 67/45 | 47/30 | 30/18 | |
| Conviction | 4 | 9 | 15 | 43 | — | — | — | — | |
| Relative odds | 7.5 | 6.3 | 10 | 3.8 | 5 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 8.8 | |
Bearish
- Daily Kase Trend is bearish
- Settled back below the 20-day moving average
- Trading below the major daily moving averages
Bullish
- Weekly bullish KaseCD and MACD divergences
- Weekly Stochastic is oversold
- Daily bullish harami and harami cross
- Overcame the $2.81 swing high
Neutral
- Daily doji
- Confirmed daily spinning top
- 10-day DMI is bearish but narrow, ADX is below 25 and falling (no trend)
Factor lists shortened for space. The written analysis, two paragraphs long, sits directly below this in the report.
- The call and the conviction Bearish, 42.8%. The word is which way the market is trending over the forecast period. The number is the chance the primary target ($2.63) is touched before price settles past the invalidation ($2.90). It is a real probability — 43% means 43%. The word can also read RANGEBOUND or NEUTRAL, in which case no direction is being published — see below.
- The three-part bar Three things can happen, and all three are published: the target first (42.8%), the invalidation first (16.7%), or neither (40.5%). They add to 100%. Read all three — never the headline alone.
- The ladder of eight levels Low to high across the page, settlement in the middle, support blue on the left and resistance red on the right. The solid navy box is the primary target; the dashed red box is the invalidation. Every one of the eight is a real target, not just the two marked ones.
- The rows beneath it Meet / Close — the chance of touching that level, then of settling through it. Reading 84/59 at $2.77: very likely to get there, less likely to break through. Conviction — the same race run against each level on the called side; dashes on the other side mark a change of question, not missing data. Relative odds — a 0–10 count of how much evidence agrees at that price. A count, not a ranking.
- The evidence and the argument The three factor lists are what is arguing each way, itemized — do not count them, weigh them. Then two paragraphs: the first is the primary scenario, the second (opening “Nevertheless…”) is the secondary. Both name real levels, and both are priced in the table above.
The headline is not always a direction
Before you read another report: the top line has four possible words, not two. If the odds do not support a committed call, the report does not make one.
| Headline | What it means | The number beside it |
|---|---|---|
| BULLISH / BEARISH | Reaching the target is the most likely single outcome. A normal call. | The conviction. |
| RANGEBOUND | The direction is still correctly signed, but the most likely single outcome is that nothing resolves. A lean, not a call. | Both — the range share, then the lean. |
| NEUTRAL | The call’s own stop out-races its own target, so no direction is published. | The range share — never the conviction. |
3,189 and 3,279 bracket the range — 3,189 is the likelier wall to be tested, but only a close beyond one ends the range.
16,665 and 16,986 are the key levels — a close beyond either sets direction.
Headline blocks only. Everything below them — the ladder, the odds, the factor lists, the analysis — prints exactly as it does under a directional call.
- Nothing is hidden and nothing is added. Only the top line changes. Every level and every probability is the same figure it would have been.
- Under NEUTRAL both ladder markers read KEY LEVEL, so that neither is ranked above the other, and the legend names support and resistance rather than target and invalidation.
- Reaching a wall is not leaving the range. The target counts on a touch; only a close beyond a boundary ends a rangebound period.
NEUTRAL is not a hint to trade the other way
When a call is withdrawn it is dropped, not flipped. On those days the most likely single outcome is that neither level is reached at all — there is nothing contrarian to act on.
Three things people get wrong
1. “100% minus conviction” is not the odds of the opposite move
Conviction is 42.8%, so the leftover is 57%. That 57% is 16.7% the call is beaten plus 40.5% nothing happens. Gas is still more than twice as likely to reach the downside target as to settle above the invalidation.
Low conviction means low confidence in reaching the target. It is never a signal the market is about to go the other way.
2. Relative odds is a count, not a ranking
In the sample, $2.54 carries the top score of 10 while the primary target at $2.63 carries only 3.8 — and the analysis still treats $2.54 as the major objective. The written commentary, not this row, tells you which level matters. It is published because it is informative, and it is not weighted, filtered or validated as a predictor.
3. The Monte Carlo’s named columns are what-ifs, not odds
In the weekly’s simulation grid, read the Forecast column.
The five columns labeled -- through ++ each answer “if the week turns out
like that kind of period, where would prices end up” — they say nothing about how likely that kind of
period is. 0 is a middling stretch, not the expected case.
Words you will hit in the first paragraph
Enough to get through a report today. The full glossary runs to about ninety terms, including every candlestick and chart pattern the analysis names.
- Primary target
- The nearest level in the direction of the call. What the forecast is aiming at.
- Invalidation
- The price at which the secondary scenario takes over. Always one of the eight levels already shown.
- Tolerance (±)
- How close price must get before a level counts as reached. Set from the market’s own recent daily range.
- Meet / Close beyond
- Odds of touching a level, then of settling through it. The second is always the lower number.
- Confluence
- Several independent reasons landing on the same price. More agreement, more significant level.
- Decision point
- A level whose breach switches the market from the main scenario to the alternative. The price to set an alert on.
- Rangebound (headline)
- The direction is still correctly signed, but the range holding is the likeliest single outcome. A lean, not a call.
- Neutral (headline)
- The call’s own stop out-races its own target, so no direction is published. Dropped, never flipped.
- Key level
- What both marked levels are called under a neutral headline, where neither may be ranked above the other.
- Kase Trend
- Kase’s own trend gauge, reported simply as bullish or bearish.
- ADX below 25
- No trend is present. Argues for choppy, range-bound trading.
- Divergence
- Price makes a new high or low and momentum does not confirm it. The move is losing energy.
- Retracement
- A pullback quoted as a percentage of a named prior move — “the 89 percent retracement from $2.616.”
- Wave
- A move written as three prices — “$2.616 – 2.83 – 2.709” — that targets are projected from.
- On a closing basis
- Tested and respected at the settlement, not merely intraday. A firmer test than a touch.
Which report you are holding
The daily update is the same analysis over a shorter stretch of time, stripped to the essentials. The parts you just learned are identical in both.
| Weekly Commentary | Daily Update | |
|---|---|---|
| Looks ahead | The next 5 trading days — one trading week | The next trading day |
| Published | Sunday, dated to the last trading day of the week | Monday through Thursday |
| Also carries | Forward contracts, spreads, ETFs, the simulation, charts | The headline products only |
They can disagree, and that is not an error
A weekly can be bearish while the next day’s update is bullish. The weekly gives you the bigger picture; the daily gives you the next session inside it. A bounce inside a downtrend looks exactly like that. Conviction figures from the two are not comparable — they answer questions about different lengths of time.
When you have more than five minutes
The full guide covers everything above in depth, plus the parts this page leaves out:
- When the headline is not a direction — the full account of RANGEBOUND and NEUTRAL, with a complete worked example.
- The condensed tables — forward contracts, spreads, ETFs, ratios and the other exchanges, one row each.
- The Monte Carlo simulation — how to read the Forecast column and the two summary sentences under the grid.
- Putting it to work — how the odds and the levels combine, with worked examples. Not a trading system.
- What the reports do not claim — worth reading once, so you can calibrate the claims that are made.
- How each report is laid out — the section order for gas, oil and metals.
Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. 2026. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of Kase and Company, Inc.
Kase and Company, Inc. work products, including reports, commentary, forecasts, analysis, and screenshots, whether oral or written, are publications and are not to be construed as consulting, investment advice, trading recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, commodity, or other financial instrument. Kase and Company, Inc. publications are analytical materials intended to inform and support each subscriber’s independent trading and hedging decisions. All trading and hedging decisions remain solely the responsibility of the individual or organization.
The sample above is reproduced from a published Kase report dated August 14, 2026. It illustrates format only and is not a current forecast.
