WTI Testing Major Target at $54.0

WTI crude oil is trying desperately to show that a bottom has been made and that a recovery is underway. WTI is testing a crucial decision point at $54.0. This is the 0.618 projection for the wave, $43.58 – 54.24 – 47.36. Most waves that meet the 0.618 projection extend to at least the 1.00 projection, in this case, $58.0. However, a pullback will usually take place first.

Support at $49.9 should hold, but the $47.36 swing low is the level that must hold for the near-term outlook to remain positive. A close below this would negate the wave up from $43.58, and call for a continued decline.

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February 2015 WTI crude oil broke lower out of a coil formation on Friday and continued its decline on Monday, December 29. The target for the coil is $49.8, and is in line with a highly confluent $49.7 objective that we have discussed as a potential stalling point for several weeks. A close below $49.7 would open the way for $46.9 and $45.5. Initial resistance is $56.0, the apex of the coil. Key resistance is $61.8, which is near the coil’s $62.1 upper target.

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The outlook for WTI Crude Oil is negative, but prices met crucial support at $63.4. This is a confluent wave projection for the January contract, and more importantly, is the 62 percent retracement from the perpetual low of $32.4 to $114.83. In addition, the KaseCD is oversold on the monthly chart. The importance of $63.4 indicates it is a potential stalling point, but there is little technical evidence so far to definitively call for a bottom. A sustained close below $63.4 will call for $49.7. Key near term resistance is $73.3.

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The HOCL crack spread has narrowed after forming a double top at $27.26. A close below the $18.887 swing low would confirm the pattern. KaseX also indicates the spread should narrow. However, the move may be corrective. Crucial support at $22.38 is the 62 percent retracement from $18.887 and the 38 percent retracement from $14.987. A close below $22.38 would call for $19.5; the last level protecting $18.887. Resistance at $25.6 is key. A sustained close over this would open the way for $31.14 and higher.

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Kase’s senior analyst Dean Rogers reviews trade setups and price forecasts for e-mini S&P 500, crude oil, natural gas, AAPL, and VIPS using Kase Outlook, Kase StatWare, and KaseX.

http://youtu.be/pLCujMm5-WE

The WTI-Brent spread narrowed last week, but the move looks corrective. The spread will likely oscillate for the near-term, but ultimately odds favor a widening spread. The first target is (5.00), and a close below this would call for (6.50) and (9.00). Key long-term support is (11.80). This is a confluent wave projection and the 62 percent retracement from (19.38) to (0.01). Resistance at (0.90) should hold. A sustained close over (0.90) would open the way for 1.30 and 2.90.

For more information and to take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts please visit the Energy Price Forecasts page.

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This is the fourth of a four part series on Kase Wave Analysis. In this video Kase’s senior analyst, Dean Rogers, shows how the Kase Wave Analysis can be combined with other technical factors and indicators to make trading decisions.

http://youtu.be/3JcHjdr2QWM

This is the third of a four part series on Kase Wave Analysis. In this video Kase’s senior analyst, Dean Rogers, demonstrates how to identify confluent support and resistance levels using Fibonacci wave projections. This is “where the rubber meets the road” with Kase Wave Analysis. Upon completion of this session you will be able to identify the key support and resistance levels using Kase Wave analysis.

Identify and remove wave projections that have been met by using swing highs and lows
Calculate True Range and determine an appropriate cluster size for confluence points
Demonstrate the ability to cluster wave projections into confluence points
Explain which support and resistance targets are the most crucial based upon confluence

http://youtu.be/aEQsFj-DRJ8