Gasoline Prices Poised for Decline

April gasoline prices fell for the fourth day in a row, but held support at 185.0. The bearish KaseCD divergence and underlying short permissions (red dots) indicate the decline should continue to 180.0. A normal correction will hold 180.0 because it is the 38 percent retracement of the move up from 149.64 and the 1.618 projection for the intraday wave down from 198.93 (not shown). A close below 180.0 would call for the 62 percent retracement at 168.5. This level must hold for gasoline prices to retain any chance at a continued recovery in the near term.

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gasoline prices

Natural gas’ decline stalled at $2.567 on February 6. This was near the very crucial bearish decision point of $2.52. Subsequently prices have risen to $2.857. The market is likely settling into a range that is being supported by external factors (i.e. cold weather), but is searching for the upper end of this range.

A confirmed daily morning star and a few weak momentum signals (white arrows) on KaseX indicate the upward correction should extend. However, the correction met and held the 38 percent retracement from $3.299 to $2.567 at $2.85. In addition, KaseX has already generated a short warning (yellow down triangle), and prices are sitting just below the crucial $2.79 level. The $2.79 level has been major support for week, and it is now key resistance. It was tested one and held already on February 3, so a close over this would be positive for the near term.

Natural Gas Rise

Overall, the charts and technical factors discussed indicate that traders are anticipating a bullish U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Weekly Update tomorrow. However, there is some uncertainty to this move, which is why prices backed off the $2.857 swing high morning and are hovering around $2.79.

A close over $2.79 would open the way for $2.85 again, and likely $3.02, which is the 62 percent retracement from $3.299. The $3.02 level should hold unless tomorrow’s EIA number is much more bullish than anticipated. A close below $2.79 would call for $2.68 to be challenged. This is the 62 percent retracement from $2.567 to $2.857. A close below this would then call for another test of the $2.52 decision point.

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For several weeks $2.79 was major support for natural gas. This level was tested many times, and was finally broken after last week’s bearish U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Weekly Update.

Subsequently, prices have fallen to a $2.608 contract low, and $2.79 has become near-term resistance. The $2.79 level is the completion point for a bullish morning star setup, and was tested on Tuesday when prices rose to $2.783. This level is expected to hold for at least the next few days.

NGH5

As of this analysis, Wednesday’s decline has setup a pseudo bearish engulfing line. The bearish engulfing line and other technical factors indicate another bearish EIA number may be expected tomorrow.

Trading will likely be extremely choppy over the next few days, but look for $2.79 to hold and for prices to challenge the $2.608 swing low. Ultimately, the decline is expected to extend to the next major target and bearish decision point at $2.52.

Conversely, a close over $2.79 in the next few days would complete the bullish morning star setup and open the way for an extended correction to the $2.852 confirmation point.

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NY Harbor ULSD future’s upward correction extended to 177.7 on Monday. The primary wave 158.9 – 171.7 – 160.5, met its 1.382 projection at 177.7 and is poised to extend to the 1.618 projection of 184.2. This is the decision point for an extended correction and potential recovery. Although it is too early to say that a bottom has been made, a sustained close over 184.2 would open the way for 198.7 and 217.7. A close below 164.3 would indicate the upward correction is complete and call for 153.2 and lower.

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HO


Natural gas has positioned itself for a break out of the recent coiling pattern that began forming on January 20. March futures tested the crucial $2.79 area this morning, and most technical factors still favor continued decline. However, March’s inability to close below $2.79 is making this recent range look more like a short-term bottoming formation versus a corrective pattern. In addition, a bullish KasePO divergence and first class long permissions (blue dots) for the KEES indicator on the 240-minute equivalent Kase Bar chart indicate prices may attempt to rise above $3.01 again after tomorrow’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Weekly Update.

NGH15

The key for a break higher will be a close over $2.97. This is the 0.618 projection for the wave $2.762 – 3.957 – 2.81. March already stalled at this level once, but overcoming $2.97 would open the way for $3.01, which then connects to $3.08 as the 1.382 projection. The $3.08 level is also near the top of the window that took place between January 16 and 20, so a close over this in coming days would be bullish for the near-term outlook.

That said, even though March has held $2.79 on a closing basis thus far, it has not been able to maintain momentum behind any recent price rise. If natural gas cannot break higher this week, the odds of an extended upward correction will quickly diminish. A close below $2.79 would then open the way for the next leg down, where the first target of that move is $2.71.


Last week’s natural gas price rise was poised to fill December 22nd’s gap from $3.48, but the upward correction stalled at $3.352. The week settled above the $3.09 midpoint of Wednesday, January 12th’s candlestick, leading to speculation that the market might try to rise again early this week. However, Monday’s intraday gap down from $3.056 and settle back below $3.00 was negative for the near-term outlook.

There is still major support at $2.80 that has held so far, but after this morning’s move up stalled and failed to fill to $3.056 gap it looks as though a bearish U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Weekly Update is expected tomorrow.

The key wave for the short-term is $3.352 – 3.024 – 3.228. This wave has already fallen below its 1.00 projection at $2.90 and is poised to meet at least its 1.382 projection at $2.77. This then connects to $2.66 as the 1.618 projection. The $2.66 target is highly confluent for many of the larger and earlier waves down, and is the 0.618 projection for the wave $3.95 – 2.783 – 3.352. The confluence is important because a sustained close below $2.63 would open the way for a decline into the mid-to-low $2’s over the course of the longer-term. Therefore, $2.63 is a potential stalling point for the decline.

nat gas

The KaseX indicator on the 240-minute equivalent Kase Bar (KBAR) also confirms the negative outlook and has generated several short signals (purple arrows) during the decline from $3.352. The most recent short signal came after the $3.015 swing high this morning. At this point, there are no warning signals that indicate profit should be taken or that short trades should be exited. This will likely change though should prices recover above the $3.015 swing high.

First resistance ahead of the EIA report is $3.06, which is near the top of the $3.056 gap. A move above this would call for 3.15, which is the 0.618 projection for the wave $2.783 – 3.352 – 2.821. The $3.15 level is confirmed as the 62 percent retracement from $3.352 to $2.821. It is also interesting to note that this morning’s rise to $3.015 stalled just below the 38 percent retracement at $3.02. This is another negative factor.

To summarize, the bias is negative, and the move down is expected to continue. There is strong support at $2.80, but a move below this would call for at least $2.77 and very likely $2.66. Resistance at $3.06 will likely hold, but a move above that would open the way for at least $3.15.

For more information about KaseX please visit our Trading Indicators Page. To take a trial of Kase’s in-depth weekly energy forecasts on natural gas and crude oil please visit the Energy Forecasts Page.


Natural gas has finally showed some signs of life over the past few days in anticipation of tomorrow’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Weekly Update. The short-term charts are showing that traders are anticipating a bullish EIA report, which would be the support the market needs to continue this upward correction. Keep in mind though, this is a correction, and it will likely be predominant in the winter month contracts and short-lived without continued support from external factors.

After oscillating in a sideways range between approximately $2.79 and $3.00 for the past six trading sessions, the February futures contract rose above $3.00 on Wednesday. This is near the $3.176 to $2.783 midpoint of $2.98, which is significant because this is also in line with the 0.618 projection of the irregular wave $2.803 – 3.176 – 2.783. The $1.00 projection of this wave was overcome at $3.15, and the 1.618 projections is $3.38. The $3.38 level is important because it is the 50 percent retracement from $3.95 to $2.783. This level will likely be met, and possibly overcome, upon a bullish EIA number tomorrow.

NGG

In addition, February overcame the crucial $3.176 swing high, and a sustained close over this would confirm the recent bottoming formation (arguably a triple or even quadruple bottom). The projection for this formation is $3.56.

Near-term support is $3.04 and then $2.94. These are the 38 percent and 62 percent retracements of the move up from $2.783 to $3.204 (swing high as of this analysis). These levels are also near the midpoint and open of today’s candlestick. A close back below $3.04 would call into question the validity of the move up. A close below $2.94 would negate the near-term positive tone altogether, and open the way for a continued decline.

The long-term outlook for natural gas is bearish, but the move up over the past two days has shifted the near-term outlook to positive. A close over the $3.176 swing high today will open the way for an extended correction to $3.38 and possibly higher tomorrow.

For more information about Kase’s weekly energy forecasts on natural gas and crude oil please visit our energy forecast page.

Dean Rogers
Senior Analyst
Kase and Company, Inc.

RBOB Gasoline continued its decline and met a crucial target at 155.8 for the primary wave down from 315.2. The trend terminus (T = 156.3), is the lowest that most trends extend. However, there is no evidence that the decline is going to end. The next targets are 147.3 and 139.2. The KaseCD is setup for divergence and the KasePO is oversold, so a correction may take place soon. Last week’s midpoint and open are initial resistance at 168.1 and 176.5. A close over 176.5 would call for $198.3.

rbob