Natural Gas Price Forecast – March 17, 2021

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The long-term outlook for natural gas is bearish. However, the move down is struggling to definitively take out major support around $2.52. Monday’s close below $2.52 was negative and implies that prices will eventually fall to $2.39 and possibly $2.30.

Nevertheless, $2.52 has been held on a closing basis for the past two days, and the newly formed wave up from $2.478 met its $2.54 smaller than (0.618) target this afternoon. Therefore, it looks as though natural gas will try to rise to $2.59 first. This will fill Monday’s gap down, fulfill the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.478, and test the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $3.06.

Natural Gas - $0.025 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.025 Kase Bar Chart

Closing above $2.59 is unlikely but would call for $2.63 and possibly $2.70. The $2.70 level is most important because it is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.06 and the 200-day moving average. Settling above $2.70 is highly doubtful without a surprise bullish shift in external factors (e.g., weather, storage, etc.).

Once $2.59 is met another test of support is anticipated. Moreover, a close below $2.49 before or after $2.59 is challenged will clear the way for $2.44 and then the next major thresholds at $2.39 and $2.30.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil tightened again today. The decline to $63.8 tested the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $63.13. More importantly, the move down took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the first subwave down from $66.4. This wave favors a test of its $63.4 equal to (1.00) target, which is also the smaller than target of the primary wave down from $67.98. Falling below $64.3 early tomorrow will call for a test of $63.4, a close below which will clear the way for $62.5 and likely $61.6. Such a move could prove to be significantly bearish for the outlook in the coming weeks because falling below $63.4 will call for a move below the 20-day moving average. Since early November this is a threshold that has been tested and held on a closing basis several times. Therefore, closing below the 20-day moving average, which should be just below $63.4 tomorrow, would likely trigger a much more significant and long overdue test of support.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, the long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is undeniably bullish, and bearish setups like this have failed repeatedly during the past several weeks. Moreover, this is an extremely tight call for the next few days because the small intra-day double bottom that formed at $63.8 was confirmed by the close above the $64.67 intra-day swing high. The exact target for the double bottom is the $65.54 swing high. Overcoming $65.54 would invalidate the first subwave down from $66.4 that projects to $63.4 and clear the way for a test of $65.8 instead. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $63.13 and connects to $67.0 and higher.

In summary, the next substantial move for WTI crude oil will likely be determined by either a close below $63.4 or above $65.8. As of this afternoon, odds lean slightly in favor of at least a test of $63.4. A move below $64.3 early tomorrow will increase those odds. However, should WTI overcome $65.54 first, odds will shift in favor of testing $65.8 instead.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold’s move up for the past few days is most likely corrective of the downtrend that is poised to eventually reach $1631. However, because the primary wave up from $1673.3 has overcome its smaller than (0.618) target this wave will likely extend to fulfill its $1750 equal to (1.00) target before the decline continues. There is still an initial target around $1737 that gold must contend with, but a close above this will clear the way for $1750. Settling above $1750 remains somewhat doubtful but would call for the correction to reach $1768 and possibly $1781.

Gold - $5 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $5 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, resistance around $1737 remains confluent and has held so far. Also, the pullback from $1738 forms a wave that could extend to challenge its $1713 smaller than target early tomorrow. Falling below this will call for a test of key support at $1698. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1673.3, so a close below this would imply that the corrective move up is complete. Therefore, caution is warranted because the move up could very well prove to be another short-lived correction. Settling below $1680 will confirm this and call for $1654 and then the downtrend’s next major objective at $1631.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas continues to struggle to take out $2.62 and test the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.308 at $2.60. However, because the primary wave down from $3.06 has taken out its $2.66 smaller than (0.618) target, odds still favor an eventual decline to the $2.53 equal to (1.00) target. Falling below $2.65 before prices rise much higher will clear the way for a test of $2.60 and then $2.52 in the coming days.

Natural Gas - $0.025 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.025 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, today’s move up from $2.615 has challenged first resistance around $2.70, and there is a good chance for a test of $2.74 and even $2.79 tomorrow. Resistance at $2.74 is in line with the 10-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages and could prove to be a stalling point for the upward correction. However, $2.79 is more important. This is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.06 and must hold for the near-term outlook to remain bearish.

Settling above $2.79 would not mean the move down is over. However, this would call for a test of $2.84 and possibly $2.89. The $2.89 level is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.06 and is in line with the $2.887 swing high. Overcoming this would invalidate the primary wave down from $3.06 that projects to $2.53. Closing above $2.89 is currently doubtful but would reflect a bullish shift in external factors and call for a push toward $3.00 again.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil settled below $64.2 and confirmed Monday’s bearish dark cloud cover pattern. Furthermore, the primary wave down from $67.98 and subwave down from $65.98 have taken out their smaller than (0.618) targets around $63.8. Therefore, the pullback from $67.98 is poised to reach at least $63.1 and likely $62.5 tomorrow. The $62.5 target is most confluent and is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $59.24. This could prove to be a stalling point. However, a close below $62.5 will call for a test key support at $61.4.

The $61.4 target is currently most important because it is in line with the 20-day moving average. Since early November, the 20-day moving average has been tested and held on a closing basis each time WTI was poised for a bearish reversal. Therefore, closing below $61.4 will signal that a much more significant test of support is finally underway.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, during the past several weeks, tests of support such as the one currently underway have failed. Therefore, it will not be surprising to see the move down stall again and rally during the latter half of the week. There is not much that calls for this before reaching $62.5, but caution is warranted. For now, though, resistance at $65.4 is expected to hold and $66.4 is key. Settling above $66.4 would imply that the move down has failed again and clear the way for $67.5 and then a push toward $69.2.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold fulfilled the $1687 target at today’s $1687.6 low as called for in yesterday’s daily update. This is a confluent wave projection and a potential stalling point. However, any move up will most likely prove to be another short-lived correction. This is because the primary wave down from $2107.6 still favors a decline to its $1631 equal to (1.00) target. The connection to $1631 is made through $1681, $1668, and $1653. Once $1631 is met, a solid test of resistance is anticipated before gold falls any lower.

A few daily momentum oscillators are now oversold and there are bullish daily divergence setups. However, there are no patterns or confirmed signals that call for a significant reversal. As stated, as gold works its way toward $1631 any move up should be a simple correction. For now, $1729 is expected to hold and $1747 is key for the near-term. Settling above $1747 will call for a more significant test of resistance before gold falls to fulfill the $1631 objective.

Gold - Daily Chart
Gold – Daily Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas briefly rose above the $2.88 target but stalled at $2.887. The subsequent move down has taken out Tuesday’s midpoint and is poised to challenge $2.77. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.697. Closing below $2.77 will strongly imply that the corrective move up from $2.697 is complete. Settling below $2.72 will confirm this and clear the way for the next major target at $2.68.

Nevertheless, should natural gas rally above $2.86 early tomorrow look for another attempt at $2.92. This level is still expected to hold. Closing above $2.92 will shift near-term odds in favor of challenging $2.99 and possibly $3.04 again.

Natural Gas - $0.025 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.025 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil challenged $59.5 as called for in yesterday’s daily update. The decline initially stalled at $59.45 and then rose to $61.21 before settling into a coil pattern. However, WTI broke lower out of the coil just before the settlement and has fallen to $59.38 in the post-settlement trading hours. This is significant because WTI is now trading right around the 20-day moving average. This is a level that has held on a closing basis since early November. A sustained close below the 20-day moving average will strongly imply that a significant test of support is finally underway.

Tomorrow, look for WTI to challenge $58.7. This is a bearish decision point because it is now below the 20-day moving average and is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the initial wave down from $63.81 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the newly formed primary wave down from $63.81. It is also in line with the daily bearish threshold of the Kase Trend indicator. Closing below $58.7 will call for $57.9, likely $56.9, and possibly lower during the next few days. Such a move would also be a strong indication that a major test of support is underway.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, this is a week in which external factors could reinvigorate bullish sentiment. Even so, based on the way the charts and technical factors have played out during the last few days, it looks as though the market is pricing in expectations of bearish supply/demand news.

Nevertheless, should WTI crude oil rally early tomorrow look for immediate resistance at $60.3 and then crucial near-term resistance at $61.2. Rising above $61.2 will invalidate the primary wave down from $63.81 that projects to $58.7 and lower. This would also call for a test of key resistance at $62.1. Settling above this would imply that the move down has been another short-lived correction and clear the way for $62.9 likely $63.9.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold settled below crucial near-term support at $1780. This has positioned gold to challenge the $1759 swing low again. This is a bearish decision point for the long-term because $1759 is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2107.6. Based on the more recent waves, the $1759 confluence point is lowered to $1756 +/- $4. This objective is expected to be challenged tomorrow. Closing below $1756 will substantially increase odds for a decline to the primary wave’s $1631 equal to (1.00) target in the coming weeks. For the near-term, a close below $1756 will clear the way for $1737, $1720, and $1695.

Gold - $10 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

The $1756 target is the most confluent objective on the chart, so there is a modest chance that a double bottom could form around this area. There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for a double bottom to take shape, but this must be considered given the importance of the $1756 target.

With that said, should $1756 hold and gold rise above $1786 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $1799. This is currently the smaller than target of the wave up from $1759 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1815.2. Closing above $1799 would call for a move toward $1820 again.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas fell again today as expected and settled below the $2.80 target called for in Tuesday’s update and the 20-day moving average. The decline from $3.06 is now poised to test a crucial target at $2.76. This is the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave down from $3.06 and is split between the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.308 and the 100-day moving average. This might prove to be stingy near-term support, especially in the case that tomorrow’s reported withdrawal is larger than expected. Nevertheless, the charts can only tell us what the market currently knows about itself. Based on this week’s decline, it looks as though the market is shaking off last week’s cold snap. Therefore, upon a close below $2.77 look for $2.69 and $2.60.

Natural Gas - Daily Chart
Natural Gas – Daily Chart

That said, caution is still warranted because a miss in either direction by consensus expectations for tomorrow’s storage report could quickly drive prices much higher or lower. At this point, there is probably more upside risk than downside too. Therefore, should natural gas overcome $2.89 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $2.96. Closing above this would reflect renewed bullish sentiment and warn that the move down might be complete. Closing above $3.03 would confirm this and clear the way for $3.08 and higher. Keep in mind that April’s primary wave up from the $2.07 contract low still favors an eventual rise to fulfill its $3.29 equal to (1.00) target, which is also the larger than target of the initial wave up from $2.308.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.