Crude Oil Price Forecast – July 20, 2021

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil remains bearish based on the aggressive decline from $76.07. However, the move down stalled just below the $65.2 larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave down from $76.07 today. Currently, the decline looks like a three-wave correction, but there is a good chance that resistance at $69.0 will hold and the decline could transmute into a five-wave trend that targets $59.5 and possibly $58.4. Such a deep test of support is unlikely without more bearish help from external factors. Nonetheless, falling below $66.0 will call for a test of $65.3 and likely $64.1 during the next few days. Settling below $64.1 would imply that the move down is a five-wave trend and increase odds for a test of targets below $60.0.

With that said, today’s move up from $65.01 helped shape a daily bullish hammer. This is a reversal pattern that warns the corrective move down might already be complete. To complete the hammer WTI must close above $69.0. The connection to $69.0 is made through $68.1, which is the smaller than (0.618) target of the intra-day wave up from $65.01. Settling above $69.0 would then call for a test of the hammer’s $71.1 confirmation point. Closing above this would strongly suggest the move down is complete and call for $71.9 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil - $1.00 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $1.00 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold challenged $1835 as expected and stalled. This is a bullish decision point for gold because it is in line with the 50- and 200-day moving averages, the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $1919.2, and the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1750.1. Most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to fulfill the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $1857. Therefore, the outlook for gold is bullish and odds favor a move and close above $1835 soon.

However, the formation of a daily long-legged doji suggests that a test of support will probably take place first. Closing below $1817 will complete the doji and settling below $1802 will confirm the reversal pattern. A move below $1802 is doubtful but would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

Gold - Daily Chart
Gold – Daily Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas continues to trade in an erratic range bound between approximately $3.60 and $3.81. Monday’s rise to $3.769 looks as though it was a shortfall (a failure to test the range’s upper trend line) within the range. The waves down from $3.822 and $3.769 are poised to test $3.59. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $3.822. Closing below $3.59 would confirm a break lower out of the range and clear the way for $3.54 and likely $3.48 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, prices have risen this afternoon and a test of $3.71 might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Overcoming $3.71 will call for $3.77 and possibly $3.82. Settling above $3.82 would confirm a break higher and shift odds in favor of challenging another highly confluent and major threshold at $3.91.

Natural Gas - $0.035 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.035 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rose as called for in yesterday’s daily update. WTI settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $76.98 and overcame the $75.36 smaller than (0.618) target of the compound wave up from $69.54. These factors imply that the move down is complete. There is an immediate target at $75.7, a move above which will call for $76.3 and likely $77.3 during the next few days. Settling above $77.3 will clear the way for $78.2 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.50 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.50 Kase Bar Chart

The $75.7 target is relatively confluent and could prove to be a temporary stalling point. A pullback before overcoming $75.7 will likely be a short-lived correction and should hold $73.7. Key support and the barrier to a bearish outlook during the next few days is $72.5. Settling below this will shift near-term odds in favor of $71.6, which then connects to $69.2 and lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold failed to settle above Tuesday’s open and confirm yesterday’s bullish piercing pattern. Gold might be trying to form a bottom, but based upon the wave formations, near-term odds still lean in favor of a decline to challenge the next major objective at $1735. This is the target of the five-wave pattern down from $1919.2. Therefore, once met, a three-wave test of resistance is anticipated. Closing below $1763 will increase odds for a decline to $1754, which then connects to $1735.

Nevertheless, the waves up from $1750.1 warn that a larger test of resistance might take place first. Resistance at $1789 is expected to hold. However, closing above this will call for a test of key near-term resistance at $1802. Settling above $1802 would serve as an early warning that a bottom has been made and call for $1815 and possibly higher in the coming days.

Gold - Daily Chart
Gold – Daily Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

During the past few weeks natural gas has risen at a rate that is not sustainable. There is still risk for a move to challenge $3.90 and possibly $3.99, especially after this afternoon’s late rally to challenge $3.81 again. However, the move up will not likely last much longer and there is a potential double top that has formed at $3.81.

Natural Gas - $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart

Tomorrow, look for a test of $3.69, a move below which will call for $3.60. This is the confirmation point of the double top. Settling below $3.60 will clear the way for an aggressive decline toward the pattern’s $3.40 target in the coming days.

With that said, should natural gas overcome $3.77 early tomorrow look for another test of $3.81. Rising above this will clear the way for $3.90 and possibly $3.99 during the next few days. At this point, there is no strong technical evidence to call for a move above $3.99.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil fell to challenge $72.0 as called for in Monday’s daily update. However, the subsequent move up from $71.97 has formed a wave that is poised to test $73.9. Rising above this objective early tomorrow will clear the way for a major objective at $75.0. This is the most confluent target on the chart and is a probable stalling point.

With that said, the near-term outlook is tight and there is still a reasonable chance for a deeper test of support before reaching $75.0. Should WTI take out $72.1 before overcoming $73.9 look for a test of $71.2. Closing below $71.2 would confirm the daily bearish candlesticks patterns that formed last week and would shift near-term odds in favor of reaching $70.4 and likely $69.6 during the next few days.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.50 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.50 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The outlook for gold is bearish. The decline from $1919.2 looks to be forming a five-wave pattern that targets $1734. Gold also broke lower out of an intra-day bearish flag today and is poised to challenge $1763 tomorrow. Settling below this will open the way for $1747 and $1734.

With that said, gold has held above the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1678.4 at $1770.4 all week. Should gold rise above $1795, which is in line with the 100-day moving average, look for a test of $1809 and then key resistance at $1821. Settling above $1821 would warn that the move down is complete.

Gold - Daily Chart
Gold – Daily Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

July natural gas rose to a new high of $3.383 but stalled short of reaching the next major objective at $3.40. Additionally, resistance around $3.35 held on a closing basis. Near-term odds still favor a test of $3.40, and a move back above $3.35 early tomorrow will increase those odds. The $3.40 target is highly confluent and a structurally important projection for the waves up from $2.165 and $2.585. This is a potential stalling point, although an eventual close above $3.40 will call for a push toward another major objective at $3.52.

With that said, one could argue that the pullback from $3.383 suggests a double top with the prior $3.369 double top is forming. The confirmation point for this potential pattern is $3.137, a level that will not likely be met during the next few days. However, based on the pullback there is a good chance for a test of $3.29 and possibly $3.36 first. Key support and the barrier for a near-term bearish outlook is $3.23. Settling below this would shift odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues to $3.40 and higher.

Natural Gas - $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil is still poised to reach at least $73.7 and ultimately the next major objective at $75.0. However, today’s bearish doji warns that a test of support will probably take place first. Moreover, Kase StatWare formed a bearish KasePO (momentum) divergence and a short warning signal on a $0.35 Kase Bar chart. Support at $72.1 will likely hold and $71.2 is key support for the near term. Closing below $71.2 will confirm the bearish doji and shift near-term odds in favor of $70.6 and likely a test of $69.8 before the move up continues.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart with Kase StatWare
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart with Kase StatWare

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial