Crude Oil Price Forecast – March 31, 2020

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil held support around the psychologically important $20.0 level again and formed a bullish inverted hammer on the daily chart. This suggests the move down is hesitant to break $20.0 and clear the way for the next leg of the move down. Nonetheless, WTI has settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $28.49 for the past two days. Therefore, the outlook remains bearish and odds favor a continued decline toward the next major targets at $18.4 and $17.5.

Tomorrow, look for WTI to fall to at least $19.7. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $21.89 and the 89 percent retracement of the rise from $19.27. Falling below this will call for $18.4 and possibly $17.5 during the next few days. Both are crucial objectives due to their confluence as wave projections and are therefore potential stalling points.

The inverted hammer pattern suggests trading could be choppy as the move down extends during the next few days. Even so, there is initial resistance at $21.0 and then $21.7. The higher of these is expected to hold. Key resistance is $22.7, a close above which would call for a larger test of resistance before the decline continues to challenge targets below $20.0.

WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar – Wave Projections and Retracements

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude oil is struggling to take out support around the $25.6 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $32.87. Nevertheless, the outlook remains bearish and today’s move down after holding near-term resistance around $28.1 is poised to challenge $25.6 again. Closing below $25.6 will clear the way for $24.8 and then the next major objective at $24.1. The importance of $24.1 makes it a likely stalling point, but any move up from that objective will most likely be corrective.

Initial resistance at $27.4 is expected to hold. Key resistance is $28.6. Settling above $28.6 is doubtful but would call for a larger upward correction to $29.6 and even $30.2 before the move down reaches the targets below $25.6.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil leans negative. Today’s long upper shadow and close below $50.0 does not bode well for bulls. Even so, major support at $49.3, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $71.83 has held so far. Therefore, there is still a reasonable chance for a larger upward correction before falling to a new low.

The intra-day waves down from $52.2 met targets at the $49.42 swing low that connect to $48.7 and lower. In addition, the small waves down from $50.69 call for another test of $49.3. There is immediate support at $49.6 but $49.3 is key. A close below $49.3 will be long-term bearish and open the way for the next leg lower.

This is a tight call for the near-term though due to the importance of $49.3. Oversold daily and weekly momentum and intra-day Kase StatWare buy signals suggest the upward correction might extend first. Overcoming $50.6 early tomorrow will increase odds for key near-term resistance at $51.2. Closing above $51.2 would call for a larger test of resistance at $51.9 and possibly $52.2 during the next few days.

Brent Crude Oil

The outlook for Brent remains negative but a daily bullish Harami pattern, daily RSI divergence, and the wave formation up from $53.11 imply that a larger upward correction might unfold before prices fall to a new low.

Nevertheless, while $54.9 resistance holds the small wave formation down from $54.69 favors $53.7, which then connects to $53.2 and lower. Should Brent overcome $54.9, look for a test of key near-term resistance at $55.5. Settling above this would clear the way for $56.0 and higher during the next few days.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The long-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish and the recent move up from $1.804 is most likely corrective. However, Tuesday’s confirmed daily bullish RSI divergence and the wave up from $1.804 call for a larger test of resistance before the decline continues.

Today, natural gas stalled just below $1.84 support and the subsequent move up most likely forms the impulse leg of the primary wave up from $1.804. The $1.88 smaller than (0.618) target of this wave has nearly been met this afternoon and the equal to (1.00) target is $1.91. Settling above $1.91 will call for key near-term resistance at $1.96, a close above which will clear the way for a larger upward correction to $2.00 and higher.

Support at $1.83 is crucial because a move below this would take out the $1.825 intra-day swing low and invalidate the wave up from $1.804 that projects to $1.91 and higher. In turn, this would shift near-term odds back in favor of $1.79 and lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil settled right at the $49.6 target. Support at $49.6 is highly confluent and may still prove to be a stalling point. However, given WTI fell to $49.66, rose to $51.55, then fell back to $49.6 at the end of the day implies that the move down will extend to at least $49.0 and likely $48.6 tomorrow. These are the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the wave down from $51.55, respectively. Settling below $48.6 will call for the next major objective at $47.8.

Today’s inverted hammer suggests another test of resistance might take place soon. Initial resistance is $50.3 and then $51.0, the higher if which is expected to hold. Key resistance is $51.6, a close above which would call for $52.6 and possibly higher before the decline eventually continues.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent’s move down is poised to extend and the next target is $53.6. Closing below this will clear the way for $52.9 and lower. A daily inverted hammer suggests another test of resistance might take place soon, but $55.0 is expected to hold. Key resistance is $55.7, a close above which would call for $56.3 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil became positive today, and although October did not settle above $69.8 it rose above that level late this afternoon. There is a lot of resistance near the upper limit of the $69.8 target, right around $70.0 still, so there is an outside chance the move up will stall early tomorrow. However, given today’s surge higher, and because prices have overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $71.4, any pullback will most likely be a corrective buying opportunity for bulls while today’s $68.4 midpoint holds.

The next objective is $70.4 and a close above this would call for $70.9 and eventually the next major objective of $71.5. This is the last target protecting October WTI’s $71.63 swing high. Therefore, settling above $71.5 would open the way for a new high of at least $72.0 this week.

Immediate support is $69.3 and key support for tomorrow is $68.4, which should hold. Settling below $68.4 would suggest today’s move up was based on weak external factors that could not support the move up. In that case, look for prices to challenge $67.9 and possibly the $67.33 intra-day swing low. A move below the latter would invalidate the wave up from $66.86 and shift odds to be solidly back in favor of a continued decline.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent’s move up accelerated again today and the pattern up from $75.64 has unfolded as a five-wave formation that met its Wave V targets at $79.54 this afternoon. The move up is poised to continue and $79.9 and likely $80.5 should be challenged tomorrow.

That said, because the five-wave pattern met its target at $79.54 a corrective pullback might take place first. Such a move is expected to hold support at today’s $78.2 midpoint, which means the pullback will be a buying opportunity. However, a close below $78.2 would suggest the move up has stalled again and that another major test of support will take place over the next few days. Given today’s rise, this is doubtful.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil has been trading in a very indecisive manner as traders seem to be waiting for clarification of recent events or new external factors to drive the next leg lower or higher. This was most evident today after the early move up overcame $68.1 as expected but stalled before reaching key near-term resistance at $69.1. The subsequent decline suggests that whatever factors drove prices higher late yesterday did not fully pan out today and that the overall outlook remains neutral-to-negative.

There is crucial support at $66.3 and prices are already working their way toward that objective this afternoon. The key, however, will be a close below $66.3, which would then clear the way for prices to fall toward the next major objective at $63.9. Even so, the move down will most likely remain a grind, so there is a reasonable chance that prices could temporarily stall at $65.8 and $65.1 as prices fall toward $63.9.

Immediate resistance is $68.1, a level that should continue to hold on a closing basis. Key resistance in the short-term is $69.2, a close above which would shift the near-term outlook to positive and call for another attempt at $70.4 and higher.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude oil’s move up stalled again today at $73.93, which was just above last Wednesday’s $73.5 midpoint and the 100-day moving average. The move down from $73.93 then formed a wave that projects to $71.9 as the smaller than (0.618) target. This is an important near-term objective because a close below this would open the way for $71.3 and lower.

Resistance at $73.7 is expected to hold, though $74.7 is still most important for the short-term outlook. Closing above this would be positive and call for key upper resistance at $75.3. Such a move is doubtful though without a surprise bullish shift in external factors.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas has adopted a much more positive near-term bias during the last week and is pushing toward key thresholds that could open the way for a longer-term bullish outlook. Today’s settle above $2.94, the upper end of the tolerance range around this week’s $2.91 target, calls for a test of $3.00. There is immediate resistance at $2.96 but $3.00 is now the next major objective. A close above this would be long-term bullish, calling for $3.10 and higher.

Natural Gas Daily
Natural Gas Daily

That said, the move up is becoming somewhat extended and a pullback to test support should take place before prices overcome $3.00. Such a move would likely be corrective and should hold $2.88 support. Key support for the near-term is $2.85, an important retracement of the move up from $2.671 and $2.74, which is also in line with the 50-day moving average. Settling below this would be a likely reflection of a negative shift in underlying fundamentals. For now, though, while $2.85 holds any move down will present a short-term buying opportunity that could become a longer-term uptrend upon a close over $3.00.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil is trading in an extremely indecisive manner and appears to be waiting on external factors to feed its next move. However, based on the charts and quantitative factors, near-term odds favor a test of at least $68.7 and possibly $68.0 after today’s failed attempt to overcome $70.0 left another long upper shadow on the daily candlestick. The $68.0 target is an important wave projection, retracement, and the 50-day moving average so it is a probable stalling point, at least initially. Settling below $68.0 would open the way for the next leg lower to challenge $67.2 and $66.5.

That said, until prices fall below the $67.87 swing low, which is also in line with the $68.0 target, there is still a reasonable chance for the wave up from $66.92 to extend to $70.4. More recent waves show the connection to $70.4 is made through $69.6, so a close above this would substantially increase odds for a test of $70.4. Even so, key resistance and the gateway for a bullish outlook is $71.2, a level that is still expected to hold, for now.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent’s move up today was a bit bolder than WTI’s but still stalled below $75.1, the 50-day moving average and last level protecting the $75.79 swing higher. The later move up from $74.14 also failed to overcome today’s high and the late pullback setup a wave that projects to $73.9 and lower. Tomorrow, look for a test of $73.9 before prices possibly attempt to reach $75.1 again. A move below $73.9 would call for $73.1, key near-term support, a close below which would clear the way for $72.5 and lower.

Resistance at $75.1 needs to hold on a closing basis for near-term odds to remain in favor of a deeper pullback. Otherwise, settling above $75.1 would call for $75.6 and $76.3. The latter is the gateway for a long-term bullish outlook as discussed in our weekly Commentary and is expected to hold.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

September natural gas briefly bounced after falling to $2.751, but the move up stalled at $2.788, forming a new primary wave down from $2.831 that is poised to reach at least $2.73 and possibly $2.70 tomorrow. The former is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $2.671 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.831. This level may initially hold, but once met odds will favor an eventual close below $2.73, which would then open the way for key support around $2.70. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2.831 and connects to $2.66 and lower.

Natural Gas - 0.025 Kase Bar
Natural Gas – 0.025 Kase Bar

That said, for the corrective move up from $2.671 to retain a reasonable shot at extending $2.73 needs to hold and prices will have to overcome the $2.788 intra-day swing high. This will not guarantee a move up but will increase the probability for a test of $2.85, $2.89, and possibly $2.92. For now, though, due to today’s close below yesterday’s $2.77 target, the near-term outlook is negative.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI held the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $72.98 and subsequently broke lower out of an intra-day bearish flag. The 50-day moving average at $68.22 was tested and held on a closing basis, but the break lower out of the flag and the wave down from $70.43 call for $68.0 tomorrow. This is an important objective because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.29. Settling below this would be a strong indication the recent move up is over and that prices will challenge support around the $66.29 swing low over the next few days.

WTI Crude Oil - 65 Cent Kase Bar
WTI Crude Oil – 65 Cent Kase Bar

For now, resistance at $69.4 should hold. However, to regain a bullish near-term outlook WTI must settle above $70.6, which would then open the way for $71.5 and higher. This is doubtful given the break lower out of the bearish flag and will become must less probable upon a close below $68.0.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent settled back below the 50-day moving average today and the move down from yesterday’s $75.79 swing high accelerated. Prices are now poised to challenge at least $73.7 and $73.0 within the next day or so. The latter is key for the near-term outlook because it is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $71.3. A close below this would be a strong indication the recent move up is over and would open the way for $72.0, $71.1, and lower.

Today’s $74.9 midpoint should hold upon a test of resistance. Key resistance and the barrier for a more positive near-term outlook again is $76.6. A move above this is unlikely though unless support at $73.0 holds, which is currently looking doubtful.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.