Midweek Natural Gas Forecast – May 6, 2015

It is hard to deny the strength of the natural gas price rally over the past two weeks. Last week’s bullish engulfing line, April’s bullish hammer and morning star setup, and bullish daily divergences on the KasePO, KaseCD, MACD, RSI, and Stochastic are all technical evidence that the move down may finally be complete. However, many traders are skeptical of the move up and are asking what fundamental factors would support a recovery over the course of the longer-term. It is a fair and accurate question. Tomorrow’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Weekly Update should provide a strong clue regarding the potential strength of a continued natural gas price rise.

In addition to the aforementioned bullish technical factors on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts, the short term technical factors and wave formations show evidence for a move to at least $2.93. This is a decision point because it is the 2.764 (XC – shown in red) projection for the wave up from $2.481, the 1.00 (E – shown in pink) from $2.557, and the 1.618 (L – shown in purple) from $2.747. In addition, $2.93 is the last level protecting mid-March’s $2.982 swing high. A sustained close over this would open the way for an extended move to targets above $3.00. However, $2.93 will not likely be tested until after tomorrow’s EIA report, if at all, because most traders are waiting for confirmation from another lower than expected build.

natural gas prices

There is good reason to be suspicious of this move up, and a disappointing EIA report tomorrow could be the catalyst to turn prices lower again in very short order. Therefore, until there is a sustained close over $2.93 caution is warranted.

The daily chart has formed a hanging man and evening star setup as of this mid-day analysis, and a close below Monday’s $2.78 midpoint would complete the pattern. This would then open the way for $2.65, the 50 percent retracement of the move up and last week’s midpoint. A close below $2.65 would confirm the move up is over and most likely point toward the market settling into a trading range while it sorts itself out.

Request a trial of our weekly energy forecast on natural gas to learn more.

Natural gas futures nearly filled Monday’s gap down from $2.625. This is crucial resistance because it is near the 38 percent retracement from $2.949 and the confirmation point of April 15th’s morning star. A close over $2.625 would call for the upward correction to extend and challenge key resistance at $2.77. We still think resistance will hold, and a move below the $2.533 swing low will shift odds strongly back in favor of challenging the $2.475 low again.

For a more in-depth natural gas forecast please take a trial of Kase’s Natural Gas Commentary.

natural gas forecast

Since late 2011 the Korean Stock Exchange (KOSPI) has oscillated in a narrowing range, now nearing its apex, which means a breakout is expected within the next quarter or two, perhaps sooner.

The pattern began after 2011’s decline to 1644.11. The entire pattern could be the middle “B” wave of a downward ABC correction, or, alternatively the first wave of a renewed push higher. This will remain an open question until there’s a break out, but recent technicals call for a test the formation’s upper trend line. So odds may indeed favor a break higher.

KOSPI Monthly
KOSPI Forecast Monthly

The first positive factor is a bullish piercing pattern that formed after a test of the pennant’s lower trend line, when January opened below December’s close and closed above December’s midpoint. If February, now trading slightly over December’s 1971.95 open, closes above that point, the bullish tone will be confirmed.

The next bullish factor for this KOSPI forecast can be seen on the daily chart, in red. This is a five-wave trending pattern that met a major target at 1970.27 (the top of Wave 3), and is now poised to extend to key endpoint targets for Wave 5, at 2039.6. Early in the move up a strong buy signal called a pierced dart (two green up arrows and yellow triangle) triggered on the KaseX trading study.

KOSPI Daily
KOSPI Forecast Daily

Hitting 2039.6 would be extremely important because the KOSPI Index would have overcome the top of Wave B, marked in blue. To be considered complete, waves must extend to at least their 0.618, or smaller than, projection. This value was met at 1876.27. Kase’s studies show that just 13 percent of waves stall at this level, the remainder go on to meet their equal to, or 1.0 projection. Overcoming 1994.82 would wipe out Wave C. At that point, the entire wave down from 2093.08 would have to extend down as a whole. Alternatively the wave would be considered complete at the minimum extension, potentially a bearish technical failure.

A bearish failure often results in a sharp rise. Therefore, overcoming 1994.82 could be the catalyst that the KOSPI Index needs to make a decisive upward move.

2039.6 has about 2/3rds odds to be met, and would likely trigger connections to 2158.2 from the waves up from 1644.11. At that point, the resistance line will have been broken. Waves up from 892.16, which also point to 2158.2, might then extend to higher targets at 2336.2 and 2484.3.

In summary, while KOSPI has been oscillating in a neutral range, 2039.6 is the key for an upside test. There could be a pullback at 2039.6, but a sustained close over this, calls for 2158.2, above the upper trend line. A sustained close over this would confirm a valid break higher and open the way for the 2336.2 and 2484.3 targets.

Learn more about Kase’s trading indicators KaseX and Kase StatWare that were used for this KOSPI forecast.

Take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts that use the same techniques as this KOSPI forecast.

Natural gas has positioned itself for a break out of the recent coiling pattern that began forming on January 20. March futures tested the crucial $2.79 area this morning, and most technical factors still favor continued decline. However, March’s inability to close below $2.79 is making this recent range look more like a short-term bottoming formation versus a corrective pattern. In addition, a bullish KasePO divergence and first class long permissions (blue dots) for the KEES indicator on the 240-minute equivalent Kase Bar chart indicate prices may attempt to rise above $3.01 again after tomorrow’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Weekly Update.

NGH15

The key for a break higher will be a close over $2.97. This is the 0.618 projection for the wave $2.762 – 3.957 – 2.81. March already stalled at this level once, but overcoming $2.97 would open the way for $3.01, which then connects to $3.08 as the 1.382 projection. The $3.08 level is also near the top of the window that took place between January 16 and 20, so a close over this in coming days would be bullish for the near-term outlook.

That said, even though March has held $2.79 on a closing basis thus far, it has not been able to maintain momentum behind any recent price rise. If natural gas cannot break higher this week, the odds of an extended upward correction will quickly diminish. A close below $2.79 would then open the way for the next leg down, where the first target of that move is $2.71.




Kase’s senior analyst Dean Rogers reviews trade setups and price forecasts for e-mini S&P 500, AAPL, and MSFT, using Kase Wave Analysis and Kase StatWare.

http://youtu.be/SZ-ipWldKTc



Kase’s senior analyst Dean Rogers reviews trade setups and price forecasts for e-mini S&P 500, crude oil, natural gas, AAPL, and VIPS using Kase Outlook, Kase StatWare, and KaseX.

http://youtu.be/pLCujMm5-WE

On Oct. 30, a colleague called frantically about 10-year German government bonds taking a major reversal after weak German business confidence data had been released. He was having difficulty gauging the importance of the news, and hoped that technicals would put the talking-head chatter into perspective, something fundamentals alone couldn’t do.

I plotted a daily candlestick chart with the RSI, MACD and Stochastic. GDBR10 had been in a downward oscillating trend for decades, interrupted by prolonged corrections, the latest of which ended in mid-January. The recent run up lasted eight days, so just from a duration standpoint, it wasn’t much of a recovery. Days six and seven formed a bearish Harami line and star. Oct. 27 closed below the midpoint of the Oct. 23 Harami line, indicating that the pattern was complete. So, even without indicators the candles showed a clear bearish pattern.

Candlesticks Showed Bearish Signal Before Other Indicators
image1

However, none of the indicators were either divergent or overbought. This is a key fault of these indicators in that they are “unidirectional” — when they trigger the follow through is good, but they often lack signals ahead of turns.

These common indicators were originally for calculators, not computers. The solution is to use new approaches which employ computationally intense algorithms to optimize for serial dependency, cycle length, and scale for logarithmic volatility. This results in bi-directional indicators and statistically significant stops, such as the KaseCD and Kase DevStops.

The KaseCD goes magenta when it’s overbought or oversold, as on Oct. 27, warning of a possible turn. Anyone long the eight day rally should have become increasingly cautious, especially as the following days were sideways. This would have meant scaling back a long position, or perhaps selling covered calls.

KaseCD Turned Magenta to Signal Overbought Level
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Earlier signals missed on the first chart were caught as well. Oct. 16’s turn was clearly signaled by a KCD momentum divergence, as marked by the automatically generated red divergence lines. The mid-September decline was signaled by the KCD overbought “K.”

Cynthia Kase, President
President
Kase and Company, Inc.

For a no-charge trial of Kase StatWare on Bloomberg visit APPS CS:KASE, which includes the KaseCD and Kase DevStops, contact us if you have any questions.

On October 1, 2014, Kase commented on a tweet, and posted the weekly chart shown below, regarding the decline of Hertz (HTZ). In that tweet, we stated that the decline from $31.61 was likely a corrective Wave IV of a long-term bullish five-wave formation. A week later, on October 8, we discussed the trade setup during our weekly chat session (minutes 16:50 – 21:00). At that point, the 38 percent retracement at $22.47 had been taken out, but we stated that for the five-wave formation to remain intact, the top of Wave I ($17.64), which was in line with the 62 percent retracement at $16.84, would need to hold. We also commented that we were watching the daily chart for bullish signals such as completed momentum divergences and oversold signals that would tell us the move down was possibly complete.

Figure 1 – HTZ Weekly as of October 1, 2014
HTZ Weekly 20141001

Fast-forward a few weeks later, and the next chart below shows that the move down stalled at $18.50 on October 15. The $18.50 swing low held the 62 percent retracement and top of Wave I as called for. A recovery has begun to take place, indicating Wave IV is likely complete and Wave V is underway. In addition, Wave IV ended up being a simple correction versus the Wave II correction. If you look closely at the details of Wave II you will see that it broke down into a complex five-wave, or nested three-wave correction. This is called the “rule of alternation”, which indicates one of the corrections will be complex and the other simple when a five-wave pattern is forming.

Figure 2 – HTZ Weekly as of October 28, 2014
HTZ Weekly 20141028

Table 1

Wave III met the intermediate (I, or 1.382) projection of Wave I, $1.55 – 17.64 – 7.80. This formation now has the potential to extend to $33.5 over the course of the longer-term (a few months or more). This is because Wave I projects to $33.5 as the larger than target (L, or 1.618). This is also the smaller than (S, or 0.618) projection for Wave III, $7.80 – 31.61 – 18.5. Most importantly, for this to be a textbook five-wave formation, at least two waves have to be equal. Rising to $33.5 would make Waves I and V nearly equal in size (Wave I = 17.64 – 1.55 = 16.09, Wave V = 33.5 – 18.5 = 15.0). If Waves III and V end up being equal, the move up would extend to $42.3. So over the course of the longer-term, as the probable Wave V extends, we now know that the potential for this move is $33.5 and possibly $42.3.

As we had discussed in our weekly chat session on October 8, once Wave IV was complete, we wanted to drop down to time a long entry on the daily chart. However, we needed to see evidence on the daily chart that the move down was likely complete. When dropping to the daily chart shown below, as of October 28, we can see that a bullish KaseCD divergence (red line) and KasePO PeakOut (green P) were confirmed at the $18.50 swing low, and that two subsequent buy signals (green and blue L) triggered. These are signals from our Kase StatWare indicator package and show that a trader may have established a long trade on the daily chart upon the second L (marked by the blue arrow) on October 20 at approximately $21.39. A stop would be placed at $19.07, which is DevStop3, or approximately 3.6 standard deviations of average True Range (ATR).

Figure 3 – HTZ Daily with Kase StatWare as of October 28, 2014
HTZ Daily 20141028

Traders holding this long position would now monitor the daily chart for exit and warning signals. One such warning signal was triggered by the gray K, which is a weak KCDpeak. Traders may have pulled stops into DevStop2 (second blue dot), and once the accompanying $22.60 swing high is overcome, the stop will be widened back to Dev3 (third, and largest, blue dot).

In addition to monitoring the daily chart, traders could also watch for a confirmed buy signal (L) on the weekly chart. This has not triggered yet, but once a buy signal forms on the weekly chart, a trader could scale the daily trade to the weekly chart, widen stops to DevStop3 on the weekly chart, and then monitor the weekly chart for exit and warning signals. The long signal on the weekly chart will warrant the added risk of holding a trade with wider stops on the weekly chart. This ‘scale up’ technique is useful for holding positions over longer periods of time and avoiding whipsaws. This technique also limits initial trade risk because the standard deviations of ATR (method used for Kase’s DevStops) on the daily chart are smaller than standard deviations of ATR on the weekly chart. Therefore, if the trade does not play out as expected, a trader can get out of the trade sooner on the daily chart, limit losses or preserve any gains, and live to trade another day.

At this point, we can also analyze the recent move up from $18.50 and look for important near-term resistance. When forecasting, we primarily rely upon confluence of Fibonacci wave projections and retracements. For instance, the smaller than (S or 0.618) projection for Wave 1/V, $18.5 – 22.6 – 20.77, shown in the chart and table below, is $23.5. This is confluent with the 38 percent retracement from $31.61 to $18.5 (magenta line). This then connects to $24.7 as the equal to (E, or 1.00) projection, which is near the 50 percent retracement. The intermediate target (I, or 1.382), is $26.6. This is also the crucial 62 percent retracement. Therefore, the wave projections for Wave 1/V, and the retracements of the decline from $31.61 to $18.5, show a cascade of targets that connect to one another.

Figure 4 – HTZ Daily with Retracements as of October 28, 2014
HTZ Daily Retracements 20141028

Table 2

What this indicates, is that $23.5 is an important near term resistance level. Currently, the move up from $18.5 is corrective of the move down from $31.61. Generally, a normal, profit taking correction, will hold the 38 percent retracement. However, because this is also the smaller than target, our studies show that meeting $23.5 will open the way for an extension to at least $24.7, the equal to target. A close over $24.7 would then call for $26.6, which is the key threshold for a bullish long-term outlook. This is because $26.6 is the 62 percent retracement and connects to $33.5 as the trend terminus. As discussed earlier, $33.5 is the larger than target for Wave I, and would make Waves I and V equal. Therefore, when all is said and done, the connection to $33.5, and completing the five wave pattern, is made through $23.5.

This analysis does not mean that HTZ will absolutely rise to $33.5. The move up may prove to be corrective, stall, and continue to decline. However, based upon the factors discussed above, the potential for $33.5 is present. The forecast is a road map for the near-term, and the StatWare indicators are the vehicle used to navigate the turns in the road. Each of the targets discussed is a potential stalling point for the move up, and levels at which traders holding a long position will want to closely monitor for exit and warning signals generated by their indicators, like divergences, PeakOuts, and KCDpeaks. If these types of signals trigger, then profit will be taken. Otherwise, the long trade will be ridden higher, possibly scaled to the weekly chart upon confirming buy (L) signals, and ultimately exited when an exit signal triggers on that chart.

These are just a few of Kase’s trading and forecasting techniques that can help make you a better, and more informed, trader. If you would like to learn more, join us for our free weekly educational chat sessions, take a trial of our trading indicators, and if you are an energy trader, take a trial of our weekly crude oil and/or natural gas forecasts.

December RBOB futures met confluent support at $2.0776, and prices have subsequently settled into a coil formation that should break lower. However, a KasePO PeakOut (green P), indicates the move down is oversold and due for a correction. A directional break out of the coil will help to clarify the near term direction. Upon a break lower, look for $2.041 and then $1.915. Should the upward correction extend, watch for resistance at $2.240 and $2.368. The latter is expected to hold.

For more information and to take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts please visit the Energy Price Forecasts page.

XBZ4 Comdty