Crude Oil Price Forecast – November 3, 2020

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil has adopted a bullish near-term outlook after settling above $37.7, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $44.33 and the 50 percent retracement from $41.90. This is also last week’s midpoint.

The move up is now poised to challenge a crucial near-term target at $38.8. This is the 50 percent retracement from $44.33 and the 62 percent retracement from $41.90. Closing above $38.8 would put odds in favor of challenging $40.2 and possibly another test of $42.0. The $42.0 objective defined the upper end of the range that December WTI traded in from early September until late last week.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.50 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.50 Kase Bar Chart

That said, the move up from $33.64 lacks a wave structure that can sustain a larger move up. There are no reversal patterns or signals as of this afternoon, but a test of support is anticipated before WTI rises much higher.

Should WTI turn lower early tomorrow look for initial support at $36.5 and then $36.0. Key near-term sport is $35.3. Closing below this will call for another test of $34.8, the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $44.33, which has held on a closing basis so far.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent tested and held $40.0 on a closing basis today. This was near the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $47.31. Even so, the move up is poised to continue because today’s close above last Thursday’s open confirmed Friday’s bullish high wave candlestick reversal pattern. Today’s move up also confirmed daily bullish KaseCD and KasePO divergences. Therefore, odds favor a continued rise to $40.8, a crucial near-term objective that connects to $41.5 and $42.9.

Nevertheless, Brent is due for a test of support before rising much higher. Holding $40.0 suggests such a move might take place early tomorrow. Support at $38.6 is expected to hold and $37.4 is key. Settling below $37.4 would shift near-term odds back in favor of a larger decline.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI remains bearish. Although WTI bounced today and settled above yesterday’s midpoint, the move up failed to close above yesterday’s open and held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $41.9 at $39.7 on a closing basis. Also, the wave formation up from $38.28 stalled just below its larger than (1.618) target and this afternoon’s post-settlement decline has challenged the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $38.28. Finally, yesterday’s close below $38.8, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $42.02, has put odds in favor of testing the $36.8 equal to (1.00) target. This is in line with the double bottom that formed between the $37.11 and $36.93 swing lows. Therefore, closing below $36.8 will take out the double bottom and clear the way for a much more significant test of support.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

That said, each time WTI has looked most bearish (or bullish) since early September the move has stalled and WTI has oscillated within the range between nominally $37.0 and $42.0. Also, given today’s close above yesterday’s midpoint, there is an outside chance for a larger test of resistance before WTI falls to challenge $36.8. Closing above $39.7 will call for key resistance at $40.5. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $41.9. Settling above $40.9 will shift near-term odds back in favor of rising to $41.4 and eventually $42.0 where the $42.02 confirmation point of the double bottom would be tested.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for Brent is bearish after today’s move up held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $43.57 at $41.5. The post-settlement decline implies that today’s move up is corrective of the recent decline. Tomorrow, look for a test of $40.2, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $44.3. Settling below this will clear the way for $39.4 and then $38.6.

Resistance at $41.5 should continue to hold. Closing above this will call for a test of key near-term resistance and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $43.57 at $42.3. Settling above $42.3 is doubtful but would shift odds in favor of $43.2 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. For the past few weeks, December WTI has been stuck in a wide range between nominally $37.0 and $42.0 and formed a double bottom around $37.0. Last week, prices oscillated within a smaller range between approximately $39.4 and $41.7. This was in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $44.33 and was just below the $42.02 confirmation point of the double bottom.

Today, December WTI broke higher out of this small recent range but stalled at $41.90. The break higher was bullish for the outlook though, and the move up is poised to reach $42.3 during the next couple of days. This is the most confluent objective on the chart. Setting above $42.3 will establish a bullish uptrend because this will confirm the double bottom, which targets $47.0, and also invalidate the primary wave down from $44.33 that had taken out its $37.6 smaller than (0.618) target a few weeks ago.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, the late throwback from $41.90 back into the recent range between $39.4 and $41.7 reflects uncertainty and suggests a test of $40.5 might take place first. Falling below $40.5 will take out a few of the smaller waves that call for $42.3 and higher. This will also call for a test of $40.0. Support at $40.0 is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $36.93 and is expected to hold. Closing below $40.0 will call for key near-term support at $39.4, a close below which will shift odds in favor of testing $38.8 and possibly lower.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent rose a bit higher today but its move up has been more hesitant than WTI’s. Nevertheless, the decline from $43.57 forms a corrective range that should break higher soon. Also, $43.3 was met, so the wave formations now call for a test of $43.8. This then connects to $44.4 and higher.

The $43.3 target was quite important for the near-term outlook, so the throwback from this objective late this afternoon is not surprising. Support at $42.2 is expected to hold and $41.4 is key for the near-term. Settling below $41.4 is doubtful but would reflect a bearish shift in external factors and call for $40.5 and possibly lower in the coming days.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The quantitative outlook for WTI crude oil has become muddled during the past couple of days. Even so, longer-term odds will continue to lean bearish while the $41.72 swing high holds. A deeper test of support is expected tomorrow but given the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish technical factors, there is a good chance that WTI will settle into a trading range for a few days while it sorts through external factors.

WTI crude oil’s post-settlement decline has formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick and drove prices back below the 100-day moving average. Although the daily candlestick won’t reflect this due to the $40.67 settlement, the decline is negative for tomorrow’s forecast and calls for a deeper test of support.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Additionally, this afternoon’s decline also confirmed an intra-day double top between the $40.83 and $40.86 swing highs that was confirmed by the move below the $40.15 swing low. The target for this small pattern is $39.5, but the more important confluence point is $39.2. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $36.63 and connects to $38.3, the 62 percent retracement. For the move up to have a reasonable chance at continuing during the next few days $38.3 must hold. Closing below $38.3 will call for $37.7 and then $37.0, the latter of which is the barrier to a much more bearish outlook.

With that said, the challenge is that today’s move up overcame the $40.80 swing high and invalidated all of the subwaves down from $41.72 that called for a bigger decline. More importantly, WTI settled above the $39.8 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $36.58. This implies that WTI might rise to challenge the $41.8 equal to (1.00) target. This would take out the $41.72 swing high and invalidate the larger wave down from $44.05 that settled below its $37.10 smaller than target on Friday. This wave calls for a decline into the mid-to-low $30s. Therefore, this is the cause of what will likely be become a tug-of-war between bulls and bears during the next few days.

Should WTI overcome $40.5 early tomorrow look for a test of $41.2 and possibly $41.8. As stated, rising to $41.8 would invalidate the primary wave down from $44.05 and shift longer-term odds in favor of a continued rise.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent crude oil stalled at the 100-day moving average and formed a double top around $43.84. This pattern was confirmed by this afternoon’s decline below $42.12 and calls for a test of $41.3 tomorrow. This is near the double top’s target and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $38.79. Settling below $41.3 will call for $40.3 and possibly $39.4. The $39.4 objective is most important but will likely hold for now because it looks as though Brent will settle into a trading range for a few days before committing to a longer-term directional move.

Nevertheless, should Brent overcome $43.0, look for a test of $43.9 and then $44.5. Rising to $44.5 would take out the $44.3 swing high and invalidate the primary wave down from $46.99 that took out its $39.91 smaller than target on Friday. Overcoming $44.3 would strongly imply that the move down is over and that a longer-term bullish recovery is underway.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil’s move up from $38.87 stalled short of the $41.1 objective and finally proved to be corrective of the decline from $41.72. WTI took out the $39.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $41.72 and stalled marginally below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58. The move down might become a grind during the next few days, but odds favor a test of the $38.0 equal to (1.00) target. Closing below this would then call for the key objective at $37.1. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the bigger wave down from $44.05. Settling below $37.1 would clear the way for much lower prices and a much more bearish outlook in the coming weeks.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, because the move down stalled at the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58 and $39.0 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a larger test of resistance early tomorrow. Initial resistance at $39.7 is expected to hold and key resistance is $40.5. Settling above $40.5 would shift near-term odds back in favor of making a push toward $41.6. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $36.58 and the barrier for renewed a bullish outlook.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $39.88, confirmed the $43.07/$43.03 pseudo double top, and took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $44.30. Brent is now poised to extend to $40.3, a close below which will call for a test of key support and the barrier to a much more bearish outlook in the coming weeks at $39.9.

With that said, the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $43.07 held today. Therefore, there is a modest chance for a test of $42.2 before taking out $40.9. Key near-term resistance is $43.0. Closing above this will call for a test of $43.6, which then connects to $45.3 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for November WTI crude oil leans bullish after holding the 100-day moving average for the second straight day and holding the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58 on a closing basis. This is a tight call though, and today’s long-legged doji reflects uncertainty headed into tomorrow.

Nevertheless, the wave formation up from $38.87 is poised to test its $40.1 smaller than (0.618) target. This then connects to a key objective at $40.6 as the equal to (1.00) target. The $40.6 objective is also the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $41.72. Settling above $40.6 will clear the way for $41.2 and then $42.1. The $42.1 objective is most important because this is the smaller than target of the primary wave up from $36.58. Settling above $42.1 will put odds firmly in favor of higher prices.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, the late move up from $39.19 stalled near the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $40.27. Also, the choppy nature of today’s move up from $38.87 implies that today’s price action might be corrective of the move down from $41.72. Should WTI fall below $39.1, look for a test of crucial support at $38.5. This is the smaller than target of the primary wave down from $41.72 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58. Settling below this will significantly dampen odds for a continued rise and would call for key near-term support at $37.2. This is in line with the smaller than target of the primary wave down from $44.05. Settling below $37.2 would confirm a bearish outlook for WTI in the coming weeks.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent crude oil settled below the 100-day moving average for the second straight day. This was bearish for the outlook, but today’s long-legged doji reflects uncertainty after Monday’s decline. Also, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $39.3 at $41.0 has held and the wave up from $40.96 is poised to challenge its $42.0 smaller than (0.618) target. Rising above this will call for $42.5, which then connects to $43.2 and higher.

Conversely, the move up from $40.96 has been rather choppy and may prove to be a correction. Should Brent take out $41.0 look for a test of $40.3. Settling below $40.3 would call for another test of key support and the barrier to a longer-term bearish outlook at $39.3.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil broke higher out of an intra-day coil pattern (dark blue dotted lines) and settled the day above the $38.1 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $36.13 (red). The $38.1 level was also the midpoint of the September 8 candlestick. This was positive for the near-term outlook and calls for a test of $39.0 tomorrow. However, $39.0 will likely hold.

The $39.0 objective is extremely important for the near-term outlook because it is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $36.13 (red) and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $43.78 (pink). Settling above this would warn that the recent move down might already be complete and would call for a test of $40.0 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, aside from today’s move up, the rise from $36.13 has been extremely shallow and choppy. Therefore, this move is most likely corrective. Additionally, the move up from $36.13 could form a bearish flag pattern if $39.0 holds. This is because a trend line parallel to the lower trend line of the coil (gray dotted line) will intersect with $39.0 tomorrow.

Once $39.0 is met, odds for a test of $37.6 will increase. Holding $39.0 and settling below $37.6 will confirm that a flag is forming and will call for a test of $37.1. This is currently the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.13 and is in line with the potential flag’s lower trend line. Settling below $37.1 will call for another test of $36.0.

Granted, $36.0 was and still is, major support for the longer-term outlook. Therefore, the move down might be complete. However, the fate of WTI’s near-term outlook will be determined by holding or closing above $39.0 tomorrow.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent formed a double bottom around $39.3 that will be confirmed by a close above the $41.20 swing high. The target of the double bottom is $43.1. Based on the waves up from $39.30, Brent should rise to $41.3 tomorrow. However, an immediate close above this (and the $41.20 swing high) will likely be a challenge because $41.3 is the 100-day moving average.

Once $41.3 is met, odds for a test of $39.9 will rise. Settling below $39.9 would imply that a rectangle pattern is forming instead of a double bottom. This pattern would be bearish for the outlook rather than bullish. In this case, odds would shift in favor of testing $39.3, a close below which would call for the move down from $46.61 to continue.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

WTI crude oil fell as called for in this week’s Kase Commentary on Crude Oil but has reached the crucial $36.0 objective much faster than anticipated. The $36.0 objective is split between the $36.11 larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave down from $43.78 and the $35.94 38 percent retracement of the rise from $23.26. Meeting this objective so quickly signals that a much deeper test of support than previously expected may unfold. However, because the move down stalled at $36.13 today, a test of resistance is expected first.

WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Based on the small wave up from $36.13, WTI should rise to at least $37.4 and likely $38.1 early tomorrow. These are the equal to (1.00) and larger than targets, respectively. The $38.1 level is also today’s midpoint and is expected to hold. Rising above this will call for key resistance at $39.4. This is the highest the wave up from $36.13 projects and is near today’s open. Closing above $39.4 is doubtful but would call for $40.0 and possibly higher and signal that the corrective move down might already be complete.

Once $37.4 is met, odds for another test of support around $35.9 will increase. Falling below $36.36 will invalidate the wave up from $36.13 that calls for $37.34 and higher. This would also call for a test of $35.9, a close below which will clear the way for $35.0 and lower.

Brent Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

Brent fell as expected but has challenged the $39.1 objective sooner than predicted. Nonetheless, odds favor a continued decline and a move below $39.4 will call for $38.8 and lower.

That said, the move down stalled just above the crucial $39.1 area and the wave up from $39.31 implies that a test of $40.3 and probably $40.9 will take place first. Resistance at $40.9 is expected to hold. Key Resistance is $42.1, a close above which will clear the way for $43.0 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil continues to lean negative. WTI settled below the 200-day moving average for the fourth straight day after another early test of resistance. This has formed long upper shadows on the daily candlesticks for the last three days, all of which form shooting star. Granted, shooting stars within a range-bound market are not as reliable as those that form after a long uptrend, but they still reflect near-term weakness.

Nevertheless, WTI settled back above the 20-day moving average today and is still trading in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, which are squeezing again. There is also a bullish coil that formed on the intra-day charts for the past few days.

WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar

The near-term call remains a challenge, but odds still favor an eventual break lower. Closing below $42.3 will clear the way for the key objective at $41.5. This is a highly confluent wave projection and the 50-day moving average. Settling below $41.5 will confirm a break lower out of the Bollinger Bands and clear the way for a much deeper correction before the move up eventually continues.

Conversely, prices have risen a bit after today’s settle, so there is a good chance for a test of $43.3 first. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $42.56 and connects to $43.8. This level is expected to hold. Key resistance and the barrier for a near-term bullish outlook is $44.2. Settling above $44.2 would be a strong indication that a much larger move up is underway.

Brent Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

Brent crude oil settled back above the 20-day moving average today, but the waves down from $46.54 continue to call for a deeper test of support. Falling below $45.0 will open the way for at least $44.2. This is in line with the 50-day moving average and the $44.17 swing low. Settling below $44.2 would strongly indicate that a much larger correction is beginning to unfold.

Trading will likely remain choppy for the near-term though. Resistance at $46.2 is expected to hold and $46.7 is key. Settling above $46.7, which is near the 200-day moving average and the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $66.15, would imply that prices have finally broken higher out of the upward sloping range. This would be quite bullish for the long-term outlook.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

WTI crude oil rose toward the upper end of the range it has been trading in for the past several weeks. The crucial $43.4 target discussed in this week’s Commentary and yesterday’s update was challenged. This level held on a closing basis. However, WTI’s $43.35 settle was four ticks above the 200-day moving average. Therefore, the outlook leans positive headed into tomorrow.

There is immediate resistance near the $43.68 swing high, but the waves up from $39.0 and $41.33 now call for a test of $44.2. Settling above this will call for $44.6 and then $46.0.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

That said, caution is warranted. The move up has been supported by the rise in product prices for the past few days, most specifically by gasoline. Gasoline had the least negative outlook coming into the week and has likely been driven higher because of supply fears caused by hurricane Laura. Even so, gasoline pulled back this afternoon and formed a long-upper shadow. This suggests its move up might be short-lived. Should gasoline continue to fall tomorrow, WTI will be hard-pressed to overcome $44.2. Therefore, gasoline, and to a smaller degree, diesel, will probably determine the direction of WTI during the next few days.

For WTI, falling below $42.7 will imply that a test of $42.2 support is underway. The $42.2 level is near the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $41.33, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $43.68, and the 20-day moving average. Closing below this would call for key support at $41.2. This is the equal to (1.00) target and 50-day moving average. Settling below $41.2 would clear the way for a much larger test of support before the move up continues.

Brent Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

Brent rose to the top of its trading range and settled above the $45.6 level discussed in yesterday’s update. The move up is now in a position to break higher out of the range and reach $46.4. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $41.72 and is marginally below the 200-day moving average. Settling above $46.4 will clear the way for $46.9 and higher.

Nevertheless, as discussed for WTI, the degree to which Brent rises during the next few days (and possibly longer) will largely be determined by gasoline and diesel prices. Should they continue to fall, Brent’s move up will be short-lived.

For now, initial support at $45.1 will likely hold. Falling below this will call for $44.4, which then connects to key support at $43.5. Settling below $43.5 will clear the way for a much more significant downward correction before Brent’s move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.