Crude Oil Price Forecast – January 26, 2021

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rose to challenge $53.3 as called for in yesterday’s update. The move up stalled near this threshold and began to pull back again. So far, the move down from $53.25 has retraced just over 38 percent of the move up from $51.44. This is still not a clear call higher or lower, but based on today’s price action, odds lean in favor of testing $51.8 tomorrow. Closing below this will clear the way for $50.6, a confluent wave projection, retracement, and the target for the intra-day triple top that formed around $53.9.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, there is little doubt that the move down from $53.94 will prove to be corrective of the larger scale uptrend. Furthermore, because $52.56, the 38 percent retracement if the rise from $51.44, held on a closing basis there is still a good chance that the pullback from $52.35 is a simple correction of the wave formation up from $51.44. Should WTI overcome $53.3 look for a test of the $53.94 swing high. Settling above this will clear the way for $54.8 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil initially fell today but stalled at $51.81 before rising to $53.18 where the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $53.94 was challenged. Even so, this level and Friday’s midpoint held on a closing basis. Also, Friday’s bearish engulfing line and the double top around $53.9 are still intact. Therefore, odds continue to lean in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues. Closing below $52.3 will confirm the double top and clear the way for WTI to fall toward the pattern’s $50.6 target in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, WTI’s uptrend has been resilient in recent weeks. Any recent attempt at a significant test of support has been quickly negated and any reversal patterns have been wiped out shortly after forming. Today’s move up suggests this might be another case in which overly bullish sentiment will win out over bearish fundamental and technical factors. Should WTI overcome $53.13 early tomorrow look for another attempt at $53.9. Closing above $53.9 will wipe out the double top and bearish engulfing line and clear the way for at least $54.5 and probably higher before another attempt at a significant pullback.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rallied again today and negated the hanging man and bearish momentum signals that formed Monday. The daily KasePO and RSI momentum oscillators are overbought, the KaseCD and MACD are setup for bearish divergence, and the wave structure is due for a test of support after overcoming the $52.1 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $27.22. However, the challenge is that each time bearish patterns or signals form WTI rises and wipes out the negative technical factors. The rate at which prices are rising is unsustainable and a significant test of support is expected soon. However, as of this afternoon, there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall, so the near-term outlook remains bullish.

WTI Crude Oil - Daily Chart
WTI Crude Oil – Daily Chart

The $53.5 target is the most confluent objective and the next logical stalling point based on the waves and subwaves up from $34.50. Most importantly, this is the intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $34.50. Upon a close above $53.5, the next probable stalling point is the $55.4 larger than (1.618) target.

As stated, there are no bearish patterns or signals as of this afternoon that call for the move up to stall tomorrow. Nevertheless, caution is warranted due to the overbought state of the daily RSI and KasePO. Should WTI take out $52.7 look for a test of key near-term support at $52.1. Settling below $52.1 will open the way for a deeper test of support during the next few days with thresholds at $51.6 and $50.9.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil shook off yesterday’s decline with ease, reflecting a bullish shift in external factors. Although $50.0 held on a closing basis, the close above the highly confluent $49.6 objective clears the way for $51.0 and $52.1 during the next few days. Both are confluent wave projections but $52.1 is most important because it is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from the February contract low of $27.22.

With that said, the wave formation up from $34.50 is due for a correction and daily momentum oscillators are either overbought or setup for bearish divergence. Therefore, a significant test of support is expected once $52.1 is met, and before this objective is overcome on a sustained closing basis.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, as the move up extends toward $52.1 in the coming days, support at $49.1 will likely hold and $48.3 is key for the near-term. Settling below $48.3, which is near today’s open and in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $47.18, would shift near-term odds in favor of $47.8 and possibly $47.2. Closing below $47.2 would call for the move down to take out the $47.18 swing low and signal that a significant test of support is finally underway.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil remains bullish. WTI rose to challenge $47.6 as expected today. However, the move up stalled at $47.73 and might be forming a small double top with the $47.74 swing high. This is doubtful though because the waves up from $44.95 and $45.69 have overcome their smaller than targets and favor a continued rise to at least $47.9 and likely $48.7 during the next few days. The $48.7 target is the most confluent objective and a potential stalling point. Settling above $48.7 will call for the next major objective and bullish decision point at $49.5.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.25 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.25 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, should WTI take out initial support at $47.0 before overcoming the $47.74 swing high the odds that a double top has formed will increase. This would also call for a test of crucial near-term support at $46.5. Settling below this will shift odds in favor of challenging $45.7, which is in line with the $45.69 swing low and the confirmation point of the double top. Closing below $45.7 will confirm the double top and call for WTI to fall toward the pattern’s $43.6 target.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. However, a confirmed daily RSI divergence and daily bearish doji suggest the pullback from $46.68 should extend a bit lower before the move up continues. Today’s decline to $45.14 fulfilled the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $46.68. The subsequent move up to $45.93 has been lackluster so far. Another test of $46.1 is expected, a close below which will clear the way for $44.4 and possibly $43.9 during the next few days.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.25 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.25 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, this has become a very tight call because of a small intra-day double bottom that formed between today’s $45.14 and $45.16 swing lows. The wave up from $45.14 has overcome its smaller than (0.618) target, which implies that the double bottom’s $45.93 confirmation point will likely be challenged early tomorrow. Closing above $45.93 will confirm the double bottom and clear the way for $46.4 and possibly $46.9.

Resistance at $46.4, which the 62 percent retracement of the decline from January’s $58.92 swing high is expected to hold. Nonetheless, $46.9 is most important for the near-term outlook because this is in line with the double bottom’s target and the smaller than target of the wave up from $43.92. Settling above $46.9 would confirm that the corrective pullback is over and would open the way for the next leg of the move up to unfold.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil took out $44.6 and fell to challenge support around $43.9. This lower objective, which is adjusted to $43.8 for tomorrow, is a highly confluent and crucial wave projection and retracement. Another attempted test of $43.8 is expected. However, settling below $43.8 might prove to be a challenge because the decline from $46.26 is most likely corrective and forms a bullish flag that should break higher during the next few days.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.50 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.50 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, taking out $43.8 will negate the flag and clear the way for $43.3 and possibly $42.8. These are the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the primary wave down from $46.26.

That said, the long-term outlook for WTI is bullish, and as stated, the decline from $46.26 will most likely prove to be a correction of the move up from $34.04. Furthermore, should WTI overcome $44.9 before taking out $43.8 look for a test of key near-term resistance at the $45.8 intra-day swing high. Overcoming $45.8 will invalidate the wave down from $46.26 that calls for $43.8 and lower and will confirm a break higher out of the bullish flag. This will clear the way for a test of crucial resistance at $46.4.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent crude oil fell to challenge support at $46.8 as called for. The decline from $49.0 is most likely corrective and forms a bullish flag that should break higher in the coming days. However, the primary wave down from $49.0 now calls for a test of $46.4 first. Closing below this tomorrow will negate the flag and clear the way for $45.7 and possibly $45.2 instead.

For now, Brent is expected to hold $47.7 as the move down extends toward $46.4. Overcoming $47.7 will call for key near-term resistance at $48.3. Rising above this will invalidate the wave down from $49.0 that calls for $46.4 and lower and will confirm a break higher out of the bullish flag.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil has rallied as called for in this week’s forecast and yesterday’s update. Today’s move up was more aggressive than anticipated but fulfilled a confluent target around $45.1. So far, this has proved to be a stalling point. Nonetheless, the decline from today’s $45.2 high forms a bullish flag on the intra-day charts. A deeper test of support might take place early tomorrow, but odds now favor a move to the next major objective and a bullish decision point at $45.4. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $26.22, a close above which will confirm a long-term bullish outlook and a resumption of the uptrend that began in late April.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.50 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.50 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, after such a large single day move up WTI might pull back a bit on profit taking before rising much higher. Moreover, $45.4 is a crucial objective and there is also a tremendous amount of resistance between $46.0 and $46.5. Therefore, once the $45.4 target is fulfilled a reasonably significant test of support should take place before prices rise above $46.5. For now, support at $44.0 will likely hold and $42.8 is key support for the near-term.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for Brent crude oil is firmly bearish after settling above the $46.8 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $29.35 today. This confirms a long-term bullish outlook and resumes the uptrend that began in late April. The move up is now poised to reach at $48.6, $49.1, and possibly $50.0. The $48.6 target is highly confluent but $50.0 is most important. Another reasonably significant test of support is expected once $48.6 is met and before $50.0 is overcome.

As the move up extends toward $48.6 and possibly higher today’s $46.9 midpoint is expected to hold. Key near-term support is $45.9. Settling below this would indicate a significant test of support is underway before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The focus of the WTI analysis is switched to the January 2021 contract today because December will expire on Friday, November 20.

The outlook for WTI remains clouded as the market is sorting through a multitude of external factors, most importantly COVID-19 related news, that seems to shift on a day-to-day basis. January WTI is trading in a very choppy, and likely corrective, decline from last week’s $43.33 swing high. However, as stated in yesterday’s update, for the near-term, without further help from external factors there is more downside risk than upside potential. Therefore, near-term odds continue to lean in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.50 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.50 Kase Bar Chart

Falling below $40.9 will clear the way for a test of $40.4, the smaller than (0.618) target of the newly formed primary wave down from $43.33. Settling below $40.4 will clear the way for $39.8 and eventually the $39.4 equal to (1.00) target.

Nevertheless, trading is expected to continue to be erratic for the interim. Based on the wave up from $40.33, there is a reasonable chance for a test of $42.1 and possibly $42.9 first. The $42.9 level is expected to hold. Closing above this would reflect another bullish shift in near-term sentiment and call for $43.5 and then the next major objective at $44.1.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

January Brent is trading in a choppy, and most likely corrective, range. Even so, the newly formed primary wave down from $45.3 fulfilled its $43.02 smaller than (0.618) target when Brent fell to $43.08 today. This is bearish for the near-term and calls for test of the $41.9 equal to (1.00) target before the move up from $36.4 continues. Falling below $43.0 will call for $42.5 and eventually $41.9.

That said, the late move up from $43.08 might test $44.1 first. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $42.63 and connects to $44.8 as the equal to target. Rising to $44.8 will dampen odds for a decline to $41.9 during the next few days. Nonetheless, $44.8 is expected to hold. Closing above this would shift near-term odds in favor of rising to $45.8 and higher.This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil is firmly bullish and the move up is poised to challenge crucial resistance at $42.0. This is a highly confluent wave projection, retracement, and swing high. Overcoming $42.0 will invalidate the primary wave down from $44.33 that had called for $32.0 and lower during the past few weeks. Rising above $42.0 will also confirm a long-term bullish reversal is unfolding, clearing the way for $42.8 and likely $44.9.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.50 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.50 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, when the outlook for WTI has been most positive in recent months the move up has stalled near $42.0 and turned lower to challenge support again. There is no evidence that this will be the case again, but caution is warranted.

Should WTI take out $40.8 before overcoming $42.0 look for a test of $40.0. Support at $40.0 is expected to hold. Key support is $38.8. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $37.06 and the 38 percent retracement from $33.64. Closing below $38.8 would imply that another major test of support is underway before the move up attempts to overcome $42.0 again.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for Brent is quite bullish after settling above the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $36.40 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $47.31. This afternoon’s post-settlement rally has overcome the $43.99 swing high and the move up is now poised to test $44.6. This is the last level protecting the $44.67 swing high. Closing above this will clear the way for $45.3 and likely $46.4 during the next few days.

Initial support is $43.1, a move below which will call for $42.4. Support at $42.4 is expected to hold. Key support and the barrier to a bearish near-term outlook is $41.2. Settling below this would shift near-term odds in favor of testing $39.9 and possibly lower before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.