May WTI crude oil’s rise from the recent $61.81 swing low extended again today and is poised to continue. Monday’s bullish piercing pattern was confirmed by settling above Friday’s $63.7 open. There are also no reversal patterns or setups that indicate the move up will end. In addition, the $65.86 swing high fulfilled the smaller than target of the wave $59.91 – 66.55 – 61.81, so any pullback will most likely be corrective of a larger scale move up.
Upon a close over $65.9 look for next resistance at $66.5. This was the equal to target of the wave $57.6 – 64.07 – 59.91 and the level at which the move up stalled on March 26. So far, $66.5 has held on a closing basis, so if the move down is going to have any chance of continuing in the near-term $66.5 must hold. A close above this would open the way for at least $67.3 and likely higher.
Because the smaller than target of the wave up from $59.91 was met this afternoon a corrective pullback might take place first. Initial support is $65.0, though a test of today’s $64.4 midpoint would not be unusual. Support at $64.4 should hold, but the key level is $63.3. Settling below $63.3 would indicate the move up has stalled again and that another attempt to move lower is underway.
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