WTI Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil continues to lean negative. WTI settled below the 200-day moving average for the fourth straight day after another early test of resistance. This has formed long upper shadows on the daily candlesticks for the last three days, all of which form shooting star. Granted, shooting stars within a range-bound market are not as reliable as those that form after a long uptrend, but they still reflect near-term weakness.

Nevertheless, WTI settled back above the 20-day moving average today and is still trading in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, which are squeezing again. There is also a bullish coil that formed on the intra-day charts for the past few days.

The near-term call remains a challenge, but odds still favor an eventual break lower. Closing below $42.3 will clear the way for the key objective at $41.5. This is a highly confluent wave projection and the 50-day moving average. Settling below $41.5 will confirm a break lower out of the Bollinger Bands and clear the way for a much deeper correction before the move up eventually continues.

Conversely, prices have risen a bit after today’s settle, so there is a good chance for a test of $43.3 first. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $42.56 and connects to $43.8. This level is expected to hold. Key resistance and the barrier for a near-term bullish outlook is $44.2. Settling above $44.2 would be a strong indication that a much larger move up is underway.

Brent Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

Brent crude oil settled back above the 20-day moving average today, but the waves down from $46.54 continue to call for a deeper test of support. Falling below $45.0 will open the way for at least $44.2. This is in line with the 50-day moving average and the $44.17 swing low. Settling below $44.2 would strongly indicate that a much larger correction is beginning to unfold.

Trading will likely remain choppy for the near-term though. Resistance at $46.2 is expected to hold and $46.7 is key. Settling above $46.7, which is near the 200-day moving average and the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $66.15, would imply that prices have finally broken higher out of the upward sloping range. This would be quite bullish for the long-term outlook.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

WTI crude oil rose toward the upper end of the range it has been trading in for the past several weeks. The crucial $43.4 target discussed in this week’s Commentary and yesterday’s update was challenged. This level held on a closing basis. However, WTI’s $43.35 settle was four ticks above the 200-day moving average. Therefore, the outlook leans positive headed into tomorrow.

There is immediate resistance near the $43.68 swing high, but the waves up from $39.0 and $41.33 now call for a test of $44.2. Settling above this will call for $44.6 and then $46.0.

That said, caution is warranted. The move up has been supported by the rise in product prices for the past few days, most specifically by gasoline. Gasoline had the least negative outlook coming into the week and has likely been driven higher because of supply fears caused by hurricane Laura. Even so, gasoline pulled back this afternoon and formed a long-upper shadow. This suggests its move up might be short-lived. Should gasoline continue to fall tomorrow, WTI will be hard-pressed to overcome $44.2. Therefore, gasoline, and to a smaller degree, diesel, will probably determine the direction of WTI during the next few days.

For WTI, falling below $42.7 will imply that a test of $42.2 support is underway. The $42.2 level is near the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $41.33, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $43.68, and the 20-day moving average. Closing below this would call for key support at $41.2. This is the equal to (1.00) target and 50-day moving average. Settling below $41.2 would clear the way for a much larger test of support before the move up continues.

Brent Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

Brent rose to the top of its trading range and settled above the $45.6 level discussed in yesterday’s update. The move up is now in a position to break higher out of the range and reach $46.4. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $41.72 and is marginally below the 200-day moving average. Settling above $46.4 will clear the way for $46.9 and higher.

Nevertheless, as discussed for WTI, the degree to which Brent rises during the next few days (and possibly longer) will largely be determined by gasoline and diesel prices. Should they continue to fall, Brent’s move up will be short-lived.

For now, initial support at $45.1 will likely hold. Falling below this will call for $44.4, which then connects to key support at $43.5. Settling below $43.5 will clear the way for a much more significant downward correction before Brent’s move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a choppy range that is bound within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands. A Bollinger squeeze trade setup in place, and because prices are trading above the 20-day moving average there is a good chance for a break higher out of the seven week-long upward sloping trading range. However, many bearish technical factors continue to call for a break lower out of the range and for a deeper correction before the move up ultimately continues.

In addition, today’s wave structure suggests that WTI will fall to challenge at least $42.3 early tomorrow. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $43.29 and the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $41.33. Taking out $42.3 will call for a test of key near-term support at $41.8. This is the larger than target (1.618) of the wave down from $43.29, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $43.68, and is in line with the 20-day moving average.

Based on recent trading patterns, settling below $41.8 may be a challenge, but this would clear the way for a test of $40.6. This is near the equal to target of the wave down from $43.68, the 50-day moving average, and the lower Bollinger band. Settling below $40.6 would confirm a break lower out of the trading range and clear the way for a much more significant test of support before the move up continues.

Nevertheless, should $42.3 hold early tomorrow there is still a good chance for a test of crucial resistance at $43.5. This is just above the upper Bollinger band and is in line with the 200-day moving average. Settling above $43.5 would call for $44.2, which then connects to $44.7 and $46.1.

Brent Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is trading in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, so there is still a good chance for a break higher out of the recent trading range. However, the wave formation for the past few days call for a test of $44.4 first. This is an important wave projection and retracement that is also in line with the 20-day moving average. Settling below $44.4 will call for a test of $43.8 and possibly $43.1. The $43.1 target is in line with the bottom Bollinger band and the 50-day moving average. Closing below this would call for a much more significant test of support before the move up ultimately continues.

Conversely, should $44.4 hold, look for a test of $45.7. This is near the upper Bollinger band. Settling above $45.7 would confirm a break higher and call for $46.4 and then $46.9. The latter level is in line with the 200-day moving average and is the barrier for a much more bullish outlook in the coming weeks.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Short-Term Price Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil leans bearish. Today’s initial move up stalled at the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $43.52. The subsequent move down formed another long upper shadow on the daily candlestick chart. The body of today’s candlestick is too big to be a shooting star, but the price action is still bearish. Also, WTI took out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $41.06. These factors, weekly reversal pattern setups, recently confirmed daily bearish momentum divergences, and the wave formation down from $43.52 call for a deeper test of support.

The primary wave down from $43.52 is poised to meet its $41.42 smaller than (0.618) target. This is bearish for the near-term outlook because most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $40.5. The $40.5 level is crucial because this is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $38.72. Settling below this will call for a move below $40.0 and the 50-day moving average to challenge $39.5 and possibly $39.0, the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets, respectively. The $39.0 objective is a likely stalling point because this is also the 21 percent retracement of the move up from $21.99.

Nevertheless, the 21-day moving average around $41.3 has been strong support for the past few days. Therefore, because this is near the $41.42 smaller than target of the wave down from $43.52 a test of resistance will probably take place first. Resistance at $42.5 is expected to hold and $43.4 is key. Settling above $43.4 will call for WTI to challenge $43.9. This is a highly confluent wave projection that is also in line with the 200-day moving average. Because of this, a deeper test of support is expected before overcoming $43.9.

Brent Short-Term Price Forecast

Brent crude oil stalled at $45.79 today and the subsequent move down took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $46.23. Therefore, Brent is poised to reach $43.9 tomorrow. This is the equal to (1.00) target, the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $41.72, and is in line with the 21-day moving average. The $43.9 target may prove to be a stalling point, but a close below this will clear the way for $43.3 and possibly $42.7 during the next couple of days.

Odds for a test of resistance will rise once $43.9 is met. However, resistance around $45.3 is expected to hold. Overcoming $45.3 will call for a test of key resistance at $45.9. This then connects to $46.5 and $47.1.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish again after today’s move up overcame the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $42.51 and the $41.93 swing high. Most importantly, WTI challenged the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $37.32. Waves that meet their smaller than target typically extend to their equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $44.0. Therefore, odds now favor a continued rise toward $44.0, which is also the 200-day moving average. Once $44.0 is met another test of support is anticipated.

Nevertheless, the $42.0 area is a highly confluent technical objective. Therefore, WTI should test support early tomorrow. There is immediate support at $41.4, but the more important level is $40.8. This is the 38 percent retracement of the move up from $38.72 and is expected to hold.

Falling below $40.8 will call for a test of key support at $39.9. This is split between the 62 percent retracement and the smaller than target of the wave own form $42.51. For the move up to extend to $44.0 during the next few days as expected $39.9 must hold. Closing below this will clear the way for $39.0 and likely $38.3.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is poised to reach $45.0. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $39.94 and the equal to (1.00) target of the first wave up from $41.72. This is a potential stalling point because it is also in line with the $45.07 swing high. Nonetheless, based on larger waves, once $45.0 is met odds will favor an eventual move to $46.9 before another major test of support.

Immediate support for tomorrow is $44.2 and then $43.7. The latter is expected to hold. Key support is $42.9. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $41.72 and the smaller than target of the wave down from $45.07. Closing below $42.9 will shift near-term odds back in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. However, WTI continues to trade in a very erratic and indecisive manner in the near-term. The move up looks exhausted and some technical patterns and signals suggest a sizable test of support should take place before the move up continues. However, as prices have risen to new highs prior swing lows have held. This is the most basic definition of an uptrend. Also, the 21-day moving average continues to hold on a closing basis.

Realistically, the near-term outlook for WTI is neutral. Even so, today’s decline shifts odds nominally in favor of a test of $40.5 and possibly $39.9 tomorrow. These are the smaller than (0.618) and equal to (1.00) targets of the compound wave down from $42.51, respectively. Closing below $40.5 will also take out the 21-day moving average and a close below $39.9 will take out the last swing low of $39.97. This will also increase odds for a deeper correction to $39.2 and possibly $38.6 during the next few days.

Conversely, each time WTI has looked as though it will break lower prices have turned higher and risen to a modest new high shortly thereafter. Therefore, caution is warranted. Resistance at $41.9 is expected to hold. A move above this would invalidate the wave down from $42.51 that projects to $40.5 and lower. This would also call for WTI to rise to a new high of at least $42.8 before another major test of support takes place.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent’s near-term outlook leans neutral-to-negative and the move down is poised to challenge at least $43.0. Closing below this will call for $42.1 and possibly lower.

Nevertheless, the 21-day moving average held again today and the move down has been extremely choppy. Therefore, the decline is most likely corrective. Should Brent overcome the $44.34 intra-day swing high look for the move up to extend to $45.3 before another significant test of support takes place.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

Today’s move up was bullish for the outlook of WTI crude oil. The August contract settled above $41.2 and September closed above $41.5. This finally confirmed a break higher out of a weeks-long narrowing trading range and clears the way for the next leg of the move up toward at least $42.6, likely $43.5, and possibly $44.3 during the next few days.

The $42.6 objective is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $37.32. Today’s move up stalled just below $42.6, so settling above this will clear the way for $43.5. This is a moderately confluent wave projection and, most importantly, is in line with the 200-day moving average on the continuation chart. Therefore, $43.5 may be a stalling point.

Nonetheless, based on September’s wave formation, once September WTI settles above $42.6 there is a good chance for $44.3. This is the intermediate (1.382) target and is also in line with September’s 200-day moving average.

Either way, there is a lot of important resistance between $43.5 and $44.3. Therefore, another reasonably significant test of support is expected before WTI settles above $44.3.

There is also a good chance for a test of $40.8 early tomorrow before the move up continues. This is because today’s long upper shadow suggests traders remain hesitant to keep risk on overnight. This move down from $42.51 was likely profit-taking but formed a wave that projects to $40.8 as the larger than (1.618) target. This is also today’s open. Support at $40.8 must hold for the move up to extend above $42.6 during the next few days. Falling below $40.8 will call for key near-term support at $39.9. Settling below $39.9 would shift near-term odds in favor of $39.3 and possibly $38.2.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent finally settled above $43.9 and broke higher out of its recent trading range. The move up is poised to reach $45.0, a close above which would call for $45.7 and likely $46.4. The $46.4 objective is the most confluent wave projection. Therefore, another small test of support is expected once $46.4 is met.

The decline at the end of the day formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick. This was likely profit-taking but suggests traders remain nervous about the prospects for a larger move up in the coming days. There is also a small wave down from $44.89 that projects to $43.2. This is in line with today’s open and is expected to hold. Key support is $42.3, a close below which would call for $41.7 and likely $40.7.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil has traded in a narrowing range that likely forms a bullish coil after stalling at $41.08 late last week. Most trend indicators on the daily chart still lean bullish and the wave formations continue to call for another test of $41.2 after holding support near $39.2 today. This is because the most recent wave up from $38.54 met its smaller than (0.618) target this afternoon. Most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to at least their equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $41.2.

The $41.2 objective has been resilient resistance for the past few weeks. It is the most confluent wave projection for the August contract and is in line with the March 9 gap down from $41.05 on the continuation chart. Settling above $41.2 will be quite bullish for the near-term outlook, clearing the way for $42.5 and likely higher.

Nevertheless, during the past few weeks, each time WTI looks as though it is ready to overcome $41.2 the move up stalls. Therefore, caution is warranted as it will likely take help from external factors for WTI to finally settle above $41.2 and make the push for the next leg of the larger scale move up.

Conversely, should WTI fall below $39.5, the coil will break lower and the move down should then extend to at least $38.8 and likely $38.2. Support at $38.2 is key for the near-term because it is the smaller than target of the wave down from $41.63. Closing below this will open the way for an extended downward correction to $36.5 and possibly lower.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent is trading in a sideways narrowing range that forms a bullish coil. Odds favor a break higher out of the coil and a test of $43.9. This is the most confluent objective and a key target because a close above $43.9 will clear the way for the next leg of the move up to $45.2 and higher.

Nonetheless, during the past few weeks, each time Brent is poised to challenge $43.9 the move up has stalled. Should Brent fall below $42.0 first the coil will break lower and odds will shift in favor of $41.0. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $43.97 and connects to $39.4 and lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. However, prices are struggling to overcome a crucial target at $41.2. This is a highly confluent projection for the waves and sub-waves up from $20.28 and the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $37.08 on the August chart. Most importantly, $41.2 is in line with the March 9 gap down from $41.05 on the continuation chart. So far $41.2 has held on a closing basis. Settling above this will clear the way for $42.2 and likely a push to targets in the range of $43.6 to $45.0.

Nevertheless, Monday’s high-wave candlestick and today’s hanging man pattern reflect uncertainty and a rising degree of hesitance to rise above $41.2. These patterns also suggest another test of support might take place first. Any move down will most likely prove to be corrective. Should WTI fall below $39.6, look for a test of key near-term support at $38.5. This is split between the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $37.08 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $41.63. Settling below $38.5 is doubtful but would call for $38.0 and likely $36.5, the latter of which is the equal to (1.00) target.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent has held $43.8 so far this week. This is the last target protecting the $43.97 swing high. Odds still favor an eventual close above $43.8, which will open the way for $44.6 and higher. However, Monday’s shooting star and today’s high wave candlestick suggests a test of $42.2 and possibly $41.1 might take place first. Support at $41.1 is key and is expected to hold. Closing below $41.1 will call for a deeper correction to $40.1 and likely $39.4 before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish and the recent correction down from $41.63 looks as though it will be short-lived. However, there are still a few negative technical factors that suggest a deeper correction might take place before WTI overcomes $41.2.

The wave formation up from $37.08 challenged its $39.8 equal to (1.00) target and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $41.63. The next targets for this wave are $40.6 and $41.2, the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets, respectively. The $41.2 target is most important because it is in line with the continuation chart’s March 9 gap down from $41.05. Closing above $41.2 will open the way for $42.4 where the August contract’s gap down from $42.17 will be filled.

Because resistance around $40.0 has held on a closing basis there is still a modest chance for a deeper test of support first. Closing below $38.9 will complete today’s hanging man and a close below $38.1 will confirm the pattern. Support at $38.1 is crucial because it is also the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $37.08. Settling below this will call for $37.3, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $41.63, which then connects to $35.5 as the equal to target. Such a move would reflect a bearish shift in external factors and near-term sentiment.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil’s recent move up from $39.7 is poised to challenge at least $42.2. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $39.7 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $43.97. For the corrective move down to extend during the next few days $42.2 must hold. Closing above $42.2, which has better than even odds, will clear the way for $42.9 and likely $43.4.

As the move up extends, support at $40.5 is expected to hold. Falling below this would imply that the corrective move down from $43.97 may be positioning itself to extend. Closing below $39.5 will confirm that a deeper test of support is underway and would clear the way for $38.1 and possibly $37.5 before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.