Gold Price Forecast – May 6, 2021

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold rallied again and settled above the highly confluent $1806 larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $1676.2. The outlook is firmly bullish headed into tomorrow. The move up is now poised to challenge at least $1827 and likely $1837 during the next few days. The $1837 objective is another highly confluent wave projection and the target of the $1676 double bottom. Settling above $1837 might initially prove to be a challenge but would clear the way for $1857 and higher.

A few daily momentum oscillators are set up for bearish divergence but both momentum and price will have to peak to confirm these signals. Otherwise, there are no major bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for a reversal. Even so, should gold pullback tomorrow look for today’s $1801 midpoint to hold. Key near-term support is $1787, a close below which would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

Gold - $5 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $5 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold’s pullback from $1798.4 has been shallow and choppy compared to the prior move up. So far, the pullback has held $1752. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1677.3 and the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $1798.4. This means the decline is most likely corrective. Therefore, near-term odds favor a continued rise.

Gold - $5 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $5 Kase Bar Chart

There is immediate resistance at $1881 but closing above $1791 would overcome the $1789.9 swing high and invalidate the primary wave down from $1798.4. Given the resilience of the pullback, settling above $1791 would also be a strong indication that the correction is complete, clearing the way for the next major targets at $1806 and $1837.

With that said, downside risk is increasing. Closing below $1752 would call for a test of $1738 and possibly key support at $1724. The $1738 level is expected to hold due to its confluence. The $1724 threshold is key because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1677.3. Settling below this would imply that the move up is over and shift longer-term odds back in favor of a continued decline.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold rose as expected and has definitively closed above the $1756 confirmation point of the $1676 double bottom. The daily Kase Trend and 10-day DMI indicators are now bullish and the ADX is beginning to rise. Moreover, the primary wave up from $1676.2 calls for $1789, which then connects to $1807. There is still an immediate target at $1776 that gold must contend with. However, because this is the smaller than (0.618) target of the subwave up from $1677.3, a close above this will also call for a push toward this wave’s $1807 equal to (1.00) target. This then connects to $1837 as the intermediate (1.382) target. Rising to $1837 has become more probable during the next few weeks because this is also the target of the confirmed double bottom.

There are no bearish patterns, setups, or signals that call for the move up to stall. However, the $1776 target is highly confluent, and gold is pulling back a bit in post-settlement trading hours. This suggests a test of support might take place before overcoming $1776. Support at $1751 is expected to hold and $1736 is key for the near term. Settling below $1736 will call for a test of the $1723.2 swing low, which is also the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1677.3. Taking this swing low out will invalidate the subwave up from $1677.3 that projects to $1776 and makes the connection to $1807 and $1837. Therefore, a move below $1723, which is currently doubtful, would shift near-term odds to bearish.

Gold - $5 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $5 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold settled above $1756 and confirmed the $1676 double bottom. The move up is now poised to reach at least $1770 and likely $1788 during the next few days. The $1788 target is most confluent and could prove to be a stalling point. However, settling above $1788 will clear the way for $1807 and possibly a push toward the double bottom’s $1837 target.

There are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. However, the rise from $1677.3 lacks a clear wave structure, so a test of support might take place soon. For now, $1742 is expected to hold and $1728 is key for the near term. Settling below $1728 will call for a test of $1709. Closing below $1709 would imply that the move up is complete and shift longer-term odds back in favor of a continued decline.

Gold - $10 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for gold continues to lean bearish, but the call remains tight. Today’s initial move up to $1744.8 broke the upper trend line of a coil pattern. However, the move up stalled and the subsequent decline broke the coil’s lower trend line before stalling at $1720. This was in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $1747, the 38 percent retracement from $1673.3, and the 20-day moving average.

Gold - $5 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $5 Kase Bar Chart

There is little doubt that the move up from $1673.3 is corrective of the larger-scale decline, which still targets $1631. Closing below $1720 will confirm a break lower and call for a test of a crucial target around $1707. Settling below this would strongly imply that the corrective move up is complete and call for a decline to $1684 and lower.

That said, while the $1696.6 swing low holds, the primary wave up from $1673.3 will retain a reasonable chance to reach its $1761 equal to target. Therefore, should gold rally again ahead of the weekend and settle above $1739 a break higher will be confirmed. This will clear the way for $1752 and then $1761. In this case, $1761 is expected to hold. Closing above this will call for a more significant test of resistance before the decline continues as expected.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The outlook for gold in the coming weeks remains bearish and the move down is still positioned to eventually challenge $1631. The recent move up from $1673.3 is most likely corrective and is already showing signs that it might be complete. The primary wave up from $1673.3 still favors a test of its $1761 equal to (1.00) target, but today’s decline below the $1722 intra-day swing low dampens those odds. Moreover, today’s move down also settled back below the 20-day moving average and the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $1754.2 has held so far.

Gold - $5 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $5 Kase Bar Chart

At this point, there is still a reasonable chance for a test of $1761 before the move down continues. However, near-term odds have shifted back in favor of a continued decline. Closing below $1713 will call for $1701, a close below which would imply the corrective move up is complete, clearing the way for $1683 and lower during the next few days.

Conversely, should gold rally again tomorrow and overcome $1749, look for a test of $1761. The $1761 level is expected to hold. Closing above this will call for a more substantial test of resistance with thresholds at $1774 and $1786.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold’s move up for the past few days is most likely corrective of the downtrend that is poised to eventually reach $1631. However, because the primary wave up from $1673.3 has overcome its smaller than (0.618) target this wave will likely extend to fulfill its $1750 equal to (1.00) target before the decline continues. There is still an initial target around $1737 that gold must contend with, but a close above this will clear the way for $1750. Settling above $1750 remains somewhat doubtful but would call for the correction to reach $1768 and possibly $1781.

Gold - $5 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $5 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, resistance around $1737 remains confluent and has held so far. Also, the pullback from $1738 forms a wave that could extend to challenge its $1713 smaller than target early tomorrow. Falling below this will call for a test of key support at $1698. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1673.3, so a close below this would imply that the corrective move up is complete. Therefore, caution is warranted because the move up could very well prove to be another short-lived correction. Settling below $1680 will confirm this and call for $1654 and then the downtrend’s next major objective at $1631.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold fulfilled the $1687 target at today’s $1687.6 low as called for in yesterday’s daily update. This is a confluent wave projection and a potential stalling point. However, any move up will most likely prove to be another short-lived correction. This is because the primary wave down from $2107.6 still favors a decline to its $1631 equal to (1.00) target. The connection to $1631 is made through $1681, $1668, and $1653. Once $1631 is met, a solid test of resistance is anticipated before gold falls any lower.

A few daily momentum oscillators are now oversold and there are bullish daily divergence setups. However, there are no patterns or confirmed signals that call for a significant reversal. As stated, as gold works its way toward $1631 any move up should be a simple correction. For now, $1729 is expected to hold and $1747 is key for the near-term. Settling above $1747 will call for a more significant test of resistance before gold falls to fulfill the $1631 objective.

Gold - Daily Chart
Gold – Daily Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold settled below crucial near-term support at $1780. This has positioned gold to challenge the $1759 swing low again. This is a bearish decision point for the long-term because $1759 is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2107.6. Based on the more recent waves, the $1759 confluence point is lowered to $1756 +/- $4. This objective is expected to be challenged tomorrow. Closing below $1756 will substantially increase odds for a decline to the primary wave’s $1631 equal to (1.00) target in the coming weeks. For the near-term, a close below $1756 will clear the way for $1737, $1720, and $1695.

Gold - $10 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

The $1756 target is the most confluent objective on the chart, so there is a modest chance that a double bottom could form around this area. There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for a double bottom to take shape, but this must be considered given the importance of the $1756 target.

With that said, should $1756 hold and gold rise above $1786 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $1799. This is currently the smaller than target of the wave up from $1759 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1815.2. Closing above $1799 would call for a move toward $1820 again.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold is still poised to challenge a major target and bearish decision point at $1759. This is a probable stalling point because it is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2107.6 and the equal to (1.00) target of the more recent subwave down from $1878.9. However, a move up from $1759 will likely prove to be corrective of the decline. Closing below $1759 will clear the way for an eventual decline to the $1631 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $2107.6.

Gold - Daily Chart
Gold – Daily Chart

Today’s formation of an inverted hammer dampens near-term odds for a test of $1759 and warns that the move down might stall soon. Again, the most probable stalling point is $1759. Nevertheless, settling above $1791 will confirm the inverted hammer and call for a test of key near-term resistance at $1809. For now, this level is expected to hold, but closing above $1809 will call for a larger test of resistance and possibly a period of consolidation before the decline continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.