WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. However, WTI continues to trade in a very erratic and indecisive manner in the near-term. The move up looks exhausted and some technical patterns and signals suggest a sizable test of support should take place before the move up continues. However, as prices have risen to new highs prior swing lows have held. This is the most basic definition of an uptrend. Also, the 21-day moving average continues to hold on a closing basis.

Realistically, the near-term outlook for WTI is neutral. Even so, today’s decline shifts odds nominally in favor of a test of $40.5 and possibly $39.9 tomorrow. These are the smaller than (0.618) and equal to (1.00) targets of the compound wave down from $42.51, respectively. Closing below $40.5 will also take out the 21-day moving average and a close below $39.9 will take out the last swing low of $39.97. This will also increase odds for a deeper correction to $39.2 and possibly $38.6 during the next few days.

Conversely, each time WTI has looked as though it will break lower prices have turned higher and risen to a modest new high shortly thereafter. Therefore, caution is warranted. Resistance at $41.9 is expected to hold. A move above this would invalidate the wave down from $42.51 that projects to $40.5 and lower. This would also call for WTI to rise to a new high of at least $42.8 before another major test of support takes place.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent’s near-term outlook leans neutral-to-negative and the move down is poised to challenge at least $43.0. Closing below this will call for $42.1 and possibly lower.

Nevertheless, the 21-day moving average held again today and the move down has been extremely choppy. Therefore, the decline is most likely corrective. Should Brent overcome the $44.34 intra-day swing high look for the move up to extend to $45.3 before another significant test of support takes place.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

Today’s move up was bullish for the outlook of WTI crude oil. The August contract settled above $41.2 and September closed above $41.5. This finally confirmed a break higher out of a weeks-long narrowing trading range and clears the way for the next leg of the move up toward at least $42.6, likely $43.5, and possibly $44.3 during the next few days.

The $42.6 objective is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $37.32. Today’s move up stalled just below $42.6, so settling above this will clear the way for $43.5. This is a moderately confluent wave projection and, most importantly, is in line with the 200-day moving average on the continuation chart. Therefore, $43.5 may be a stalling point.

Nonetheless, based on September’s wave formation, once September WTI settles above $42.6 there is a good chance for $44.3. This is the intermediate (1.382) target and is also in line with September’s 200-day moving average.

Either way, there is a lot of important resistance between $43.5 and $44.3. Therefore, another reasonably significant test of support is expected before WTI settles above $44.3.

There is also a good chance for a test of $40.8 early tomorrow before the move up continues. This is because today’s long upper shadow suggests traders remain hesitant to keep risk on overnight. This move down from $42.51 was likely profit-taking but formed a wave that projects to $40.8 as the larger than (1.618) target. This is also today’s open. Support at $40.8 must hold for the move up to extend above $42.6 during the next few days. Falling below $40.8 will call for key near-term support at $39.9. Settling below $39.9 would shift near-term odds in favor of $39.3 and possibly $38.2.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent finally settled above $43.9 and broke higher out of its recent trading range. The move up is poised to reach $45.0, a close above which would call for $45.7 and likely $46.4. The $46.4 objective is the most confluent wave projection. Therefore, another small test of support is expected once $46.4 is met.

The decline at the end of the day formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick. This was likely profit-taking but suggests traders remain nervous about the prospects for a larger move up in the coming days. There is also a small wave down from $44.89 that projects to $43.2. This is in line with today’s open and is expected to hold. Key support is $42.3, a close below which would call for $41.7 and likely $40.7.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil has traded in a narrowing range that likely forms a bullish coil after stalling at $41.08 late last week. Most trend indicators on the daily chart still lean bullish and the wave formations continue to call for another test of $41.2 after holding support near $39.2 today. This is because the most recent wave up from $38.54 met its smaller than (0.618) target this afternoon. Most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to at least their equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $41.2.

The $41.2 objective has been resilient resistance for the past few weeks. It is the most confluent wave projection for the August contract and is in line with the March 9 gap down from $41.05 on the continuation chart. Settling above $41.2 will be quite bullish for the near-term outlook, clearing the way for $42.5 and likely higher.

Nevertheless, during the past few weeks, each time WTI looks as though it is ready to overcome $41.2 the move up stalls. Therefore, caution is warranted as it will likely take help from external factors for WTI to finally settle above $41.2 and make the push for the next leg of the larger scale move up.

Conversely, should WTI fall below $39.5, the coil will break lower and the move down should then extend to at least $38.8 and likely $38.2. Support at $38.2 is key for the near-term because it is the smaller than target of the wave down from $41.63. Closing below this will open the way for an extended downward correction to $36.5 and possibly lower.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent is trading in a sideways narrowing range that forms a bullish coil. Odds favor a break higher out of the coil and a test of $43.9. This is the most confluent objective and a key target because a close above $43.9 will clear the way for the next leg of the move up to $45.2 and higher.

Nonetheless, during the past few weeks, each time Brent is poised to challenge $43.9 the move up has stalled. Should Brent fall below $42.0 first the coil will break lower and odds will shift in favor of $41.0. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $43.97 and connects to $39.4 and lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. However, prices are struggling to overcome a crucial target at $41.2. This is a highly confluent projection for the waves and sub-waves up from $20.28 and the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $37.08 on the August chart. Most importantly, $41.2 is in line with the March 9 gap down from $41.05 on the continuation chart. So far $41.2 has held on a closing basis. Settling above this will clear the way for $42.2 and likely a push to targets in the range of $43.6 to $45.0.

Nevertheless, Monday’s high-wave candlestick and today’s hanging man pattern reflect uncertainty and a rising degree of hesitance to rise above $41.2. These patterns also suggest another test of support might take place first. Any move down will most likely prove to be corrective. Should WTI fall below $39.6, look for a test of key near-term support at $38.5. This is split between the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $37.08 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $41.63. Settling below $38.5 is doubtful but would call for $38.0 and likely $36.5, the latter of which is the equal to (1.00) target.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent has held $43.8 so far this week. This is the last target protecting the $43.97 swing high. Odds still favor an eventual close above $43.8, which will open the way for $44.6 and higher. However, Monday’s shooting star and today’s high wave candlestick suggests a test of $42.2 and possibly $41.1 might take place first. Support at $41.1 is key and is expected to hold. Closing below $41.1 will call for a deeper correction to $40.1 and likely $39.4 before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.